December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Grass is still quite green in this area.

ok Mr Semantics

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

ok Mr Semantics

He's got to find a release somewhere if we are not going to have a chance for him the eagle eye some 240p traffic cams so he can with a sense of righteous enthusiasm found only in a southern baptist preacher to declare that someone's report of "snow sticking to the roads" is patently false because the blurry grey view of I-5 shown by WSDOT looks to be both bare and wet.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

First week of December is over.

Average temp MTD:

Portland 53.1F

Eugene 52.8F

Sacramento 52.6F

 

I was in Sac town wednesday, 55 and raining. people were in north face puffy coats, lol

[TT-SEA]

42 with some blue sky and low clouds mixed here now.   Tomorrow is going to be quite chilly with temps in the 30s in the afternoon even in Seattle with an east wind.  

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

ok Mr Semantics

With all the fir trees and green grass... Christmas is usually either white or green here.  

[Phishy Wx]

[TT-SEA]

10 years ago today... I think it was very cold and the little snow we had was crunchy hard and great for sledding.    I can also tell the east wind had been blowing because there is no snow on the trees.

[Dave]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I was in Sac town wednesday, 55 and raining. people were in north face puffy coats, lol

I had a down puffy coat that my sister got me for Christmas. It was so ridiculous. It was warm and comfy, but I was like George Costanza whenever I visited any indoor place. Stuff flying off shelves and counters. It was just too puffy for human consumption. I donated it to a place that gives warm clothes to the homeless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geez, @TT-SEAis going to pull a muscle posting EPS maps this winter. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Geez, @TT-SEAis going to pull a muscle posting EPS maps this winter. 

Maybe 3 times this week?    Also posted a map earlier today to show it agreed with your love child the GFS in the long range.    

[Front Ranger]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

42 with some blue sky and low clouds mixed here now.   Tomorrow is going to be quite chilly with temps in the 30s in the afternoon even in Seattle with an east wind.  

Jim should enjoy that. Very good.

[fubario]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Geez, @TT-SEAis going to pull a muscle posting EPS maps this winter. 

My man looking at that latest EPS 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Jim should enjoy that. Very good.

Would be much nicer with light snow instead of cold rain though.  

[Deweydog]

12/8 and Fred is threatening to shut the place down and Tim’s EPS proclivities are becoming a point of obsession.

It’s definitely not coming.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

12/8 and Fred is threatening to shut the place down and Tim’s EPS proclivities are becoming a point of obsession.

It’s definitely not coming.

I was thinking the same thing. 

[Front Ranger]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

12/8 and Fred is threatening to shut the place down and Tim’s EPS proclivities are becoming a point of obsession.

It’s definitely not coming.

 

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking the same thing. 

They're on record, folks! Contrarian hot take - it will get COLD in the PNW this winter and Phil will cry like a little nino.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is showing 6 inches here. The highest detailed map. Crazy if it happens. There will be snow in the air for sure but who knows if it sticks.

[Thermal Trough]

On 12/1/2023 at 8:54 PM, Snownerd3000 said:

If that blast comes, gonna call you Damus. 

I’m confident we’ll see an Arctic Blast the 2nd half of winter. If I had to predict then the last half of January is our best chance.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I wasn't in the forums for 2018-2019, but I assume it sounded very similar to now, canceling winter. Then Feb 2019 happened. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I wasn't in the forums for 2018-2019, but I assume it sounded very similar to now, canceling winter. Then Feb 2019 happened. 

I don't think there was quite as much doom and gloom at this point, but yeah, by late January we were apoplectic. @MossMan can find many many posts where myself and others were writing off winter. 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I wasn't in the forums for 2018-2019, but I assume it sounded very similar to now, canceling winter. Then Feb 2019 happened. 

I remember that place getting 1.5 ft. in Jan 2020.

Feb 2019 was great, that was the only February in recent memory that snowed all throughout the entire month in Klamath Falls OR.

[Phishy Wx]

Happy Goosemas everyone

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I wasn't in the forums for 2018-2019, but I assume it sounded very similar to now, canceling winter. Then Feb 2019 happened. 

We weren’t quite to this current level just yet, but things were very bleak here in January 2019…And Phil was keeping us updated regularly on the hopelessness…Just like right now.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think there was quite as much doom and gloom at this point, but yeah, by late January we were apoplectic. @MossMan can find many many posts where myself and others were writing off winter. 

Yeah especially the second half of January where the models were teasing us with goodies but then ripped it away for a few days…Those were very dark days!

[Dave]

At this point all I could hope for is a quick hitter that dumped a few inches and was cold for a couple of days. I would be pretty satisfied. The mountains need to get some snow soon though. My snowmobiling partner is getting a bit itchy. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah especially the second half of January where the models were teasing us with goodies but then ripped it away for a few days…Those were very dark days!

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We weren’t quite to this current level just yet, but things were very bleak here in January 2019…And Phil was keeping us updated regularly on the hopelessness…Just like right now.

Pretty interesting how the pattern shown on that map is quite similar to what the models are showing now.    It was just about a month later when then fun arrived.   Early January... its coming! 

[Dave]

To Mossman, I gotta to say you have to try snowmobiling. I've seen your hundreds of images on your jetski so it isn't that different. But in the middle of winter on top of 15 feet of snow with snow covered mountains everywhere is a world unknown to most. Give it a shot. Of course all the different hobbies need $$ which sucks. Snowmilizer will point you in the right direction if you want to try.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is showing 6 inches here. The highest detailed map. Crazy if it happens. There will be snow in the air for sure but who knows if it sticks.

Shows me getting about 5"! I doubt it. Will be happy with a dusting.

[Andstorm]

Aren’t the models still calling for a weakening of polar vortex later this month? I know that doesn’t always presage colder weather for us in pac NW. But it would sure be nice to shake things up a bit. Regarding EPS discussion, I definitely prefer that in the long range than riding the model to model variances of the single control forecast. Bottom line is it’s all pretty worthless outside of 8-10 days, depending on general pattern. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Dave said:

To Mossman, I gotta to say you have to try snowmobiling. I've seen your hundreds of images on your jetski so it isn't that different. But in the middle of winter on top of 15 feet of snow with snow covered mountains everywhere is a world unknown to most. Give it a shot. Of course all the different hobbies need $$ which sucks. Snowmilizer will point you in the right direction if you want to try.

Always wanted to try it! My uncle that has the summer place in Orondo had one and he and his buddy that lived in the Lake Wenatchee area would ride for miles on trials from his buddy’s backyard to wherever and back. His buddy passed away and my uncle ended up selling his ski before I could ever go out with them though.

Right now funding the kids private school, sports activities, music activities, etc they are the priority…But one day perhaps I will get a snowmobile when we have property somewhere east of the Cascade crest! 

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Aren’t the models still calling for a weakening of polar vortex later this month? I know that doesn’t always presage colder weather for us in pac NW. But it would sure be nice to shake things up a bit. Regarding EPS discussion, I definitely prefer that in the long range than riding the model to model variances of the single control forecast. Bottom line is it’s all pretty worthless outside of 8-10 days, depending on general pattern. 

Only on the weekly/long range ones. Nothing showing up yet on 15/16 day EPS/GEFS/GFS. 

[Snownerd3000]

40 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We weren’t quite to this current level just yet, but things were very bleak here in January 2019…And Phil was keeping us updated regularly on the hopelessness…Just like right now.

Holy sh!t that is uncanny.  If I didn't see the date I'd assume Phil wrote this the other day.

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Always wanted to try it! My uncle that has the summer place in Orondo had one and he and his buddy that lived in the Lake Wenatchee area would ride for miles on trials from his buddy’s backyard to wherever and back. His buddy passed away and my uncle ended up selling his ski before I could ever go out with them though.

Right now funding the kids private school, sports activities, music activities, etc they are the priority…But one day perhaps I will get a snowmobile when we have property somewhere east of the Cascade crest! 

I rented a sled a couple of times to try snowmobiling. It was quickly realized that about 5x the price of the rental would buy me a decent starter sled. It's not all that expensive of a hobby if you become a snowmobile mechanic of sorts. lol. BTW, snowmobiling is a dangerous thing, but it is only as dangerous as you want to be. If you are packing simple survival tools, don't take blind corners at 30mph and just ride safely, it is a safe hobby.

[Mercurial]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty interesting how the pattern shown on that map is quite similar to what the models are showing now.    It was just about a month later when then fun arrived.   Early January... its coming! 

From 2019:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/03/11/some-nations-most-exceptional-cold-record-has-finally-left-montana/
 

it’s paywalled but you get the idea

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Only on the weekly/long range ones. Nothing showing up yet on 15/16 day EPS/GEFS/GFS. 

How is it looking? Is it still getting pushed out? Or is early Jan still looking good for a SSW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mercurial said:

From 2019:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/03/11/some-nations-most-exceptional-cold-record-has-finally-left-montana/
 

it’s paywalls but you get the idea

Yeah that late February early March arctic blast into your region was pretty epic. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

27 minutes ago, Dave said:

To Mossman, I gotta to say you have to try snowmobiling. I've seen your hundreds of images on your jetski so it isn't that different. But in the middle of winter on top of 15 feet of snow with snow covered mountains everywhere is a world unknown to most. Give it a shot. Of course all the different hobbies need $$ which sucks. Snowmilizer will point you in the right direction if you want to try.

It's addictive and a blast. I did a bunch of extreme back country riding 10 years ago and actually am in several films climbing avalanche chutes. My snowmobile had 400hp lol. Also would just go out and cruise and enjoy.  It's actually a bunch or exercise and you have to be an athlete to go ride hard all day

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I stopped riding for the most part about 4 years ago, old age and fear kicked in

I always knew that when it started to scare me it was time to stop, that's when you get hurt. Looking back at all the dumb things I did it's a wonder I'm alive

I demolished a snowmobile so bad once in revelstoke during filming the snowmobile had to be removed with a chopper.