December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[RentonHill]

Latest GEFS weeklies are lining up with the EPS for the early January PV warming 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Offshore flow will be fairly weak and we are supposed to have good precip intensity.

Yea we’ll score! I’m excited. Probs storm of the year. 

[RentonHill]

Nice jet extenze-ion

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS is running.   Hood Canal and Vancouver Island are going to get snow.  Not so sure about the east side of the Puget Sound.

WOW WTF

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not much of anything interesting being shown on the models for here. Hopefully we can get a sub-40F high at some point.

Been almost 5 years since I’ve been able to post daytime snow pictures with snow-covered roads. I feel like that’s pretty unusual and depressing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

34 dewpoint 32

 

[umadbro]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Nice jet extenze-ion

 

Euro mainly agrees with that which is striking considering it’s that far out.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Euro mainly agrees with that which is striking considering it’s that far out.

Ya it seems like a lock. Wish we could just skip ahead two weeks. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Already down to 32 here with a DP of 30

[Poulsbo Snowman]

DPs will become very relevant soon.  Foggy, 34.  Clear as a bell above the fog.  Might get below freezing tonight.

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I had my emergency appendectomy that August. Must have been something in the air that year, Andrew.

My son had an appendectomy just a couple months back. It's coming. 

[ShawniganLake]

52 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Nice jet extenze-ion

 

We will see what happens when it retracts.  

[MossMan]

34. DP 33. 

[Cold Snap]

This is what the Euro shows. I feel like this the most reasonable outcome. Shows at least flakes flying for most people north of Olympia.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

This is what the Euro shows. I feel like this the most reasonable outcome. Shows at least flakes flying for most people north of Olympia.

When do the first flakes start flying? 

[SnowySeeker50]

Heavy fog right by home and 35 degrees

[the_convergence_zone]

I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. 

There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 

 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. 

There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 

 

HRRR is always wrong 

[MossMan]

Perhaps we will have a nice little over achiever like we did in December 2020! 

[Cold Snap]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When do the first flakes start flying? 

Looks like sometime around noon.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. 

 

 

Any amount of slop covering the ground will be a win in my 2023 book! 

[The Winter Warlock]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. 

There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 

 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

HRRR is always wrong 

All models are wrong, some models are useful. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably more of a February 2016 redux this year. 

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. 

There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 

 

Shit's gon be isothermal AF beneath 700mb tomorrow morning. Given the cool/dry sfc atmosphere and the trajectory of the front, I'd honestly be surprised if we don't have some ice in the sky for Seattle a little before lunchtime. The airmass aloft is relatively warm, but just cool enough where it counts. Not saying we'll have gridlock on I5 but us weenies probably do have something to look forward to tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty frosty out there, but I can say with confidence it is NOT going to snow here tomorrow. 

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

's gon be isothermal AF beneath 700mb tomorrow morning. Given the cool/dry sfc atmosphere and the trajectory of the front, I'd honestly be surprised if we don't have some ice in the sky for Seattle a little before lunchtime. The airmass aloft is relatively warm, but just cool enough where it counts. Not saying we'll have gridlock on I5 but us weenies probably do have something to look forward to tomorrow.

I agree that it’s possible in the high spot near I-5 between Northgate and Lynwood. Same as similar setups in the past.

At sea level? No way. 

[AbbyJr]

57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We will see what happens when it retracts.  

What exactly is a jet extension and what does it mean for PNW weather? And the same question for jet retraction.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

43 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. 

There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 

 

Zero chance? Ok green horn.

[snow_wizard]

Too bad the ECWF is actually a touch warmer with 925mb temps tomorrow than the 12z run.  Really odd how it has a slightly more favorable temperature profile for south King County than north King County with this one.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Zero chance? Ok green horn.

Yeah...never say no chance in a case like this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

53 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When do the first flakes start flying? 

About 25 thousand seconds.

[snow_wizard]

I have to say the ECWF is playing with fire on this run.  The later part looks like a very Ninoish pattern.  The odd thing is it's so early int he season.  Usually that pattern doesn't set up until the second half of the winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...never say no chance in a case like this.

Particularly since “Seattle” includes the summits of High Point, Queen Anne Hill, Capitol Hill, etc. All over 400'.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Baby blue for me!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. 

There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 

 

I'm in the blue on the HRRR!

[smerfylicious]

All my homies hate the WRF

[BLI snowman]

34 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

What exactly is a jet extension and what does it mean for PNW weather? And the same question for jet retraction.

Jet extensions are associated with lots of energy crossing the Pacific, creating zonal flow and mild rain locally. However during winter they can also be an indication of colder air building at the pole and beginning to press south. Retractions are associated with greater mid latitude blocking and amplification, which is useful in dislodging that cold air and sending it into the lower 48. Ebb and flow.

Edited December 9, 2023 by BLI snowman

[AbbyJr]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Jet extensions are associated with lots of energy crossing the Pacific, creating zonal flow and mild rain locally. However during winter they can also be an indication of colder air building at the poles in and beginning to press south. Retractions are associated with greater mid latitude blocking and amplification, which is useful in dislodging that cold air and sending it into the lower 48. Ebb and flow.

Excellent explanation. Thanks so much. I love adding to my meteorological knowledge.