January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[GDR]

[Minny_Weather]

Not a good pattern for me. I'll be very very VERY lucky if I have >3" on the ground in 2 weeks, which, yeah, is terrible for here. 

[ATW]

31 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Cold air lacking on pretty much all the models down here. Would be extremely disappointing given the pattern we’re entering.

Not our turn yet

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here is a fun fact.

That looks to be the lowest ice cover going back 50 years. Not sure how this will play out the rest of this winter season.

Extreme Lake Effect snow

[Iceresistance]

What are the AI models looking like for the upcoming storm system? I heard those have an extremely high accuracy compared to the GFS

[hawkstwelve]

Nice jump northward on the 18z GEFS mean. Although, maybe not so much a jump but more so an expansion of heavier totals. Must be even more spread in the various solutions than there was on 12z. It's still anybodys game at this point, IMO. 

[Grizzcoat]

38 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

What are the AI models looking like for the upcoming storm system? I heard those have an extremely high accuracy compared to the GFS

Euro AI very similar to 12z Euro OP--

Total accumulated Precip so you have to use 850 to find snow/rain--

[Grizzcoat]

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro AI very similar to 12z Euro OP--

Total accumulated Precip so you have to use 850 to find snow/rain--

Like, the separate AI models? Like those posted last year?

[hawkstwelve]

First one GraphCast, second one FuXi. Both AI models and their respective 12z runs. Tried to capture both the Friday and Monday systems but they don't have a gif creator so I had to use my phone, which limits to 15 seconds. 

[hawkstwelve]

These skill scores are as of yesterday's 12z runs but I think the point remains: all models, even the AI ones, are struggling with this upcoming pattern and are experiencing some of their worst verification scores of the season. As a recent AFD posted here said, I'd expect continued fluctuations and flips until this thing gets closer and the models can settle down on a solution. 

[Clinton]

The Euro and CMC ensembles are taking the AO and NAO deeper negative than the GEFS ensembles resulting in a further south storm track for next weeks storm.  Something to keep an eye on as we move through the week.

GEFS

[Minny_Weather]

Complaints about how horrid this winter is setting up for me aside, I had quite the approach into MSP today. Great to be home.

[hawkstwelve]

13 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Where do we Access these?

https://charts.ecmwf.int/

Filter by product type and select 'Experimental: Machine learning models'. You'll get maps for both models. Euro is the default location but you can change it to North America.

Not the best quality of maps IMO but at least we have access. Hopefully they'll license it out soon and we can get something a bit more user-friendly. 

[MinnesotaSnow]

2 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Complaints about how horrid this winter is setting up for me aside, I had quite the approach into MSP today. Great to be home.

I was on UA1310 today. Cloud tops only 3k feet or so. 

[Money]

Looking forward to tracking some storms

Been way too long 

[Minny_Weather]

51 minutes ago, MinnesotaSnow said:

I was on UA1310 today. Cloud tops only 3k feet or so. 

Awesome! I was on UA6128. The gear came down before we even got to the cloud tops, I was extremely surprised at how low they were.

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, Money said:

Looking forward to tracking some storms

Been way too long 

Yo, long time no see.

Although in recent years we've seen a lot of systems become weaker/less phased as the time draws closer, I'm significantly more concerned about a miss north than a miss south at this point.  That would be good news up your way though.  Just nice to have things to track.

[Andie]

None of that looks good as to rain for No Texas.

[Money]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yo, long time no see.

Although in recent years we've seen a lot of systems become weaker/less phased as the time draws closer, I'm significantly more concerned about a miss north than a miss south at this point.  That would be good news up your way though.  Just nice to have things to track.

What you been up to? 

[MinnesotaSnow]

22 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Awesome! I was on UA6128. The gear came down before we even got to the cloud tops, I was extremely surprised at how low they were.

You came in right after me, probably missed ya by 10min at baggage claim. 

[jcwxguy]

 

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

Late start this morning, but back in the saddle...the data continues to support a southern track...0z EPS indicating an Arklatex Low that cuts NE into the Lower Lakes....for an ensemble showing a mean SLP in the 980's and deepening suggests to me this has Bomb potential.  The Operational runs will have varying run-to-run inconsistency with strength/phasing, etc but the overall "picture" is there that a bonafide Winter Storm is in the cards.

 

Verbatim how could that be anything but a dynamic storm here in NMI. Seems like it maxes out at this LAT as well. Notably, I do not see any arctic HP feeding cold as you've mentioned before, so without looking into thermals I'm presuming this would be much like our March storm that produced it's own cold via dynamics of lift. Fairly progressive as well, so not huge totals via duration but like in March, a quick-hitting medium totals style system. 

Sure would be a nice "welcome present" at my new abode tho! 

On a side note, they are making snow furiously at the slopes just south of here:

 

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

GFS went for 979 mb in OK

Not sure which run you meant, but I'd take the 12z in a heartbeat.

[jcwxguy]

south on 00z gfs

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, jcwxguy said:

south on 00z gfs

Canadian stays north. 

[hawkstwelve]

Last four GFS runs vs last four CMC runs. 

[jcwxguy]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Canadian stays north. 

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

GFS and CMC both a disaster.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, winterfreak said:

GFS and CMC both a disaster.

Lots of rain and thunderstorms on the south side. 

[mlgamer]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

GFS and CMC both a disaster.

Indeed. CMC stays north and GFS too warm for storm #2. Trends have not been good.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS completely misses my area to the south. It's looking pretty Euro-y in this solution. Assuming that holds, it looks like my best bet (and MN folks) will be with a deformation band that sets up north of the initial low on Friday. That looks to end up somewhere around the Northern Plains if current models have a general idea of what's going on. Which honestly, given those skill scores earlier, it might be a good bet that they don't know just yet. 

[hawkstwelve]

Let's not even discuss the 00z ICON. Man that's ugly. 

[Hoosier]

Total eye candy for mby on the GFS.  Besides being a windy paste job, it would be the lowest pressure that I've ever personally observed.

[Iceresistance]

47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure which run you meant, but I'd take the 12z in a heartbeat.

It was 12z GFS

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Euro is a little lackluster overall compared to yesterday's 12z run.

Not sure how THIS is lackluster??

[jaster220]

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Total eye candy for mby on the GFS.  Besides being a windy paste job, it would be the lowest pressure that I've ever personally observed.

Back this down to reality (985 mb) and it will take a much more likely and traditional path over DTW

[jcwxguy]