January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think the GFS was locked on single digit highs here for a couple days solid. Didn’t quite verify.

[Kolk1604]

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

Haha. Called it in mid December.  Phil’s pissed we are stealing the January show.  

Telling Phil we ate all of his 519dm heights

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s still a skinny, mediocre mess by comparison.

And the changes aren’t even forced from the NPAC to begin with.

Dude this is emperically untrue. The pattern looks great.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Thankfully, it's been upgraded since then!

[GobBluth]

End of gfs has a major Feb 96 vibe

[Deweydog]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Dude this is emperically untrue. The pattern looks great.

Block support on the Euro is pretty shaky. Kind of reminds me of some of the NAO-dependent solutions from last December which overrode a lot of upstream issues. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

We get it. Atlantic RULES, Pacific DROOLS.

Size isn't everything...

.

Lol. In a niña year, the NPAC doesn’t need any help. In a niño year the importance of the NATL is much more integral, if not a prerequisite.

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dude this is emperically untrue. The pattern looks great.

This guy is actually legitimately starting to worry me. Some very strange behavioral tendencies that are a little concerning if I'm being honest.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

End of gfs has a major Feb 96 vibe

What about the end of the CFS?

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If this verifies do we still get an arctic blast next winter?! 

I don't think any of us are truly prepared for how terrible 2024-25 is going to be if this comes to pass.

Going to be Baja Blast levels of Dew.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dude this is emperically untrue. The pattern looks great.

The North Pacific block is stronger in all 3 major models at day 8. The -NAO is easily weaker than than the Pacific block in 2 of the 3 models.

What's the common denominator?

[Meatyorologist]

All models flipping like this at hour 180 is just a complete dead giveaway sumn's up

[ShawniganLake]

I read someone comparing to late December 2021. The Alaska block was pretty beefy with that.  Ensembles were frigid 5 days out. 
 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Late night for me, so I wasn't able to post the GFS or Euro tonight. BUT wow! Dramatic, colossal improvement. Fair to say rather unexpected? The fact that all 00z operational models tonight are showing the exact same signal 500mb progression and arctic blast Day 8-10 is crazy, if not exceptionally so. Is there something to this? Let's see how 12z runs look tomorrow.

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 53 minutes
12z GFS in 7 hours 53 minutes
12z ECMWF in 10 hours 2 minutes

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The North Pacific block is stronger in all 3 major models at day 8. The -NAO is easily weaker than than the Pacific block in 2 of the 3 models.

What's the common denominator?

The arctic blast hasn’t occurred at day 8. And you’re conflating 500mb anomalies with actual heights and wavebreaks/blocks.

With all due respect, it is clear you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

[MossMan]

Welp…Looks like little to no sleep and work production for all of us for a few weeks.
 

Nobody get fired or divorced…Remember, massive caffeine intake and pretend you are staring at your phone due to very important job stuff! 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

In a niña year, the NPAC doesn’t need any help. In a niño year the importance of the NATL is much more integral, if not a prerequisite.

GOA/EPO blocking is 95% a prerequisite for the PNW, regardless of ENSO state.

In general, the more high latitude blocking, the better for mid latitude cold. But you gotta have it in the right place for PNW arctic air.

You can argue until you're purple that -NAO matters in Ninos and I tend to agree it helps. But look at previous Nino PNW blasts...gotta still have a favorable Pacific. And not all included a 1969 -NAO.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I had sex with my gf then took a (positive) covid test.

If I test negative tomorrow will that undo everything?  

You’re a living Will Ferrell sketch.

[RentonHill]

Since Tim isn’t here I’ll post it for him:

Ripe

with

potential

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Massive improvement on the EPS. Doubled totals from the 12z

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The arctic blast hasn’t occurred at day 8. And you’re conflating 500mb anomalies with actual heights and wavebreaks/blocks.

With all due respect, it is clear you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

If you think what's happening at day 8 is irrelevant to the Arctic blast...

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dude this is emperically untrue. The pattern looks great.

The pattern does look great. I’m responding to Flatiron’s erroneous interpretation of what is driving the pattern.

Please read more carefully next time.

[Deweydog]

Colorado vs Maryland via Florida over our ridging that hasn’t even come close to actually happening.

We’re a pretty big deal, folks.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If you think what's happening at day 8 is irrelevant to the Arctic blast...

Good lord. It’s like I’m talking to a brick wall.

[ShawniganLake]

WRF snowfall. 
 

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Block support on the Euro is pretty shaky. Kind of reminds me of some of the NAO-dependent solutions from last December which overrode a lot of upstream issues. 

If only it weren't the Euro

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Good lord. It’s like I’m talking to a brick wall.

The blocking precedes the Arctic blast, my guy.

[SpaceRace22]

Someone please give me attention

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Colorado vs Maryland via Florida over our ridging that hasn’t even come close to actually happening.

We’re a pretty big deal, folks.

This is the PNW weather thread.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Massive improvement on the EPS. Doubled totals from the 12z

Wow!! Epic improvement! 

[Kolk1604]

lol Randy changed his profile pic. Wonder what he wants... 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

GOA/EPO blocking is 95% a prerequisite for the PNW, regardless of ENSO state.

In general, the more high latitude blocking, the better for mid latitude cold. But you gotta have it in the right place for PNW arctic air.

You can argue until you're purple that -NAO matters in Ninos and I tend to agree it helps. But look at previous Nino PNW blasts...gotta still have a favorable Pacific. And not all included a 1969 -NAO.

Now you’re moving the goalposts, friend. Of course you need a favorable Pacific (or at least you can’t have an unfavorable Pacific..Feb 2021 occurred with a +PNA).

That doesn’t mean the GOA block is responsible for the meridional advection of the arctic airmass. We wouldn’t be posting here right now if not for the 4SD -NAO projected across guidance.

[MossMan]

2yrs ago today it was over. That video was of major icicle drippage. 

[iFred]

I still have to finish the forum shut down and I shouldn’t stop for this nonevent. If Double PhD, Doctor and recently knighted OBE Sir Phillip W of the Maryland Tundra is correct, I don’t know what we are getting all worked up over when the the -ïøð is in a negative occupation that only occurs with the transit of the moon with the mega Nino and is on the higher end of the Antarctic Node Ambient Lift Recumbent Annual Periodical Indian Sea Temperature index, or A.N. - A.L.R. - A.P. Indian modal.

 

Anyway, I’ve got some database work to finish later tonight and I’m very very tired after getting back from the green chili capital of the world. I owe Tim an apology as the real villain was in front of us all along.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The blocking precedes the Arctic blast, my guy.

How can you be so wrong? Dude.

Absent blocking that airmass stalls well before it reaches the border. What is driving it south D8 onwards?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

I still have to finish the forum shut down and I shouldn’t stop for this nonevent. If Double PhD, Doctor and recently knighted OBE Sir Phillip W of the Maryland Tundra is correct, I don’t know what we are getting all worked up over when the the -ïøð is in a negative occupation that only occurs with the transit of the moon with the mega Nino and is on the higher end of the Antarctic Node Ambient Lift Recumbent Annual Periodical Indian Sea Temperature index, or A.N. - A.L.R. - A.P. Indian modal.

 

Anyway, I’ve got some database work to finish later tonight and I’m very very tired after getting back from the green chili capital of the world. I owe Tim an apology as the real villain was in front of us all along.

 

[Kolk1604]

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's dig into this further. The pattern on the 00z ECMWF, GEM, and GFS develops upstream at Day 6. By Day 7 models are almost in lock-step with only minor differences in handling the Kona low, ridge placement, and arctic trough over western Canada. It's not much though.

*I've included Model comparisons for Day 6, 6.5, and 7.

The only concern may be possible waning support for the block Day 8+. I will say this almost reminds me of the amazing model agreement back in December 2008 where models were in solid agreement 7 to 7.5 days out. Let's keep this going with 12z runs today. We have a long, long ways to go. Cautiously optimistic.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This guy is actually legitimately starting to worry me. Some very strange behavioral tendencies that are a little concerning if I'm being honest.

What was your former account?