January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[FroYoBro]

Nice. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cold and snow on GEM

Doesn't look like a lot of snow yet. However, these artic boundaries always have surprises.

[Phil]

That perfectly timed dual RWB on 12z GFS is . Not sure I’ve ever seen that on guidance before?

That’s something you’ll see once every 1-2 decades at most w/ a midwinter IPWP MJO & stratwarm. Will it verify??

[MWG]

Finally Mt Ashland getting some snow. Hope it keeps going!

 

[Phishy Wx]

5 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I have no words. 

Check out those lows for Spokane... 

would shatter KGEG record of -30 by 6 degrees.  lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Doesn't look like a lot of snow yet. However, these artic boundaries always have surprises.

Snowier runs ahead lol

[SnarkyGoblin]

Is the GEM good enough for @Phil?

Model consistency/agreement seems to be the key difference between this potential event and most of the other times the GFS has outputted ridiculous temps and snow the last several years.

We even have our AI overlords agreeing.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Tiger will he happen

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

What's their all time low? I've only gotten to -20 in 2013, and Klamath's all-time is -25.

-30 way back 

[jakerepp]

5 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I have no words. 

Check out those lows for Spokane... 

You got this for Boise?

[Phil]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

Is the GEM good enough for @Phil?

Model consistency/agreement seems to be the key difference between this potential event and most of the other times the GFS has outputted ridiculous temps and snow the last several years.

We even have our AI overlords agreeing.

I’m getting a little excited now I admit. Good god the timing of all components involved is picture perfect...stratwarm —> MJO slowing over IPWP in perfect destructive interference w/ LP —> -EAMT —> massive RWB series across the NH all projecting onto NAM. Wowzers.

I’m not ready to emotionally invest yet, though. Need to get closer to ensure something won’t go wrong.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Second trough misses us but not by much (for a perfect blast (yes weenie mode is enabled)).

Edited January 3 by SouthHillFrosty

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well we gotta hold on for another week.  

[Phishy Wx]

chris feeding the raccoons

[Phil]

Just from a meteorological geek standpoint, I’ve waited for over a decade to see a subseasonal evolution like this show up inside D10 (let alone to actually verify).

There have been some very nice blocking episodes in recent winters but the way this one unfolds (as currently modeled) is absolutely majestic. Needs to hold for 3-4 more days, then I’ll allow my emotions to run freely lol.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The GFS is funny. Showing rain for the mountain passes in single digits lol.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Lows just randomly being generated off our coast while the cold air is in place on the GFS.

Quite the eye candy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some moderate rain moving through NW Oregon and Clark county this morning. 

[Slushy Inch]

Big snowstorm! 980 mb low in great location.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The consistency in the pattern the last 3 runs is amazing, the details on snow will change a bunch run to run.

[hawkstwelve]

Ya'll look to have a better chance at scoring over the next 10+ days than I do here. Hope it works out for you guys!!

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The consistency in the pattern the last 3 runs is amazing, the details on snow will change a bunch run to run.

started with 00z last night, so this is #3.  can we get 2 back to back Euro runs is the question

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well we gotta hold on for another week.  

Maybe not even that long?

I think if this process holds for ~ 4 more days we can be confident in at least some of the details verifying. Huge inflection point in the evolution next Tuesday/Wednesday, so want to wait until we’re with 48-72hrs of that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hr 264 through 284 would be one of the all time great Puget sound snow events of all time. WOW

Still going at 294! historic!!

Edited January 3 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Christensen87]

One crazy good run after another. Let’s see how drunk the Uncle is later today. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m getting a little excited now I admit. Good god the timing of all components involved is picture perfect...stratwarm —> MJO slowing over IPWP in perfect destructive interference w/ LP —> -EAMT —> massive RWB series across the NH all projecting onto NAM. Wowzers.

I’m not ready to emotionally invest yet, though. Need to get closer to ensure something won’t go wrong.

Even though some on here don't, I appreciate your realism.  Not so much your acronyms.

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well we gotta hold on for another week.  

I’d feel better if this was starting this coming Friday. One week is an eternity. 

[Kolk1604]

850s much colder on the 12z GEM compared to the 00z 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Incredible

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hr 264 through 284 would be one of the all time great Puget sound snow events of all time. WOW

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

850s much colder on the 12z GEM compared to the 00z 

Wow, massive blast

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ya'll look to have a better chance at scoring over the next 10+ days than I do here. Hope it works out for you guys!!

Probably one of those rare days you regret moving,  

I'm with you on the craziness that comes from snow and the PNW.  It's part of the fun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Impressive jet suppression.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Less snow than the 0z but that's ok!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Even though some on here don't, I appreciate your realism.  Not so much your acronyms.

Appreciate it, brother. I’m telling you, whenever I get too invested in a wx event it’s an automatic jinx. I don’t fall for that trap anymore.

[Randyc321]

I haven't seen this posted....

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Watch this possible historic snow event unfold!

[Slushy Inch]

Gefs.

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Watch this possible historic snow event unfold!

We need this.

 

Phil, figure out how to make this happen.

[RentonHill]

an AR slowly making its way up the coast will make for some ridiculous snow totals