January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

This is what attracted me to this site in the first place. A bunch of people who know a ton about weather who really really really want it to snow. 

And hate Tim!

[CloudJunkie]

Who else thinks this system will shut down the passes?

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I feels like a switch was turned on since about 2019, winter has been different and some places have had some huge snow events.

Total speculation here and I'm sure this will make some people mad, but my suspicion is that climate change might temporarily improve the PNW's winters for the next couple decades, as the warming poles weaken the jet stream to some degree and cause it to become easier to perturb. As a result, it doesn't seem crazy to me that there would be more intrusions of arctic air further south than normal. At some point I suppose unmitigated climate change would eventually moderate winter temps enough to eliminate those effects for us, but for now, may as well enjoy it, lol.

[SeanNyberg]

This does feel different. Usually we are doing the battle of the models.

Crazy GFS versus Reliably steady Euro.

Who is going to blink?

9 times out of 10 the GFS comes around the to Euro, with a few rare occasions that the GFS won out and we all reminded each other "Don't count out the GFS, it might be wild, but it was the first one to pick up on the *enter extreme weather event*"

But, this one feels like it is: ALL of the weather models VS our collective trauma of being burned so many times

Which is weird. It isn't a model v model situation. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Considering this all fell into line starting 24 hrs ago with the 00z GFS, I'll feel much better after a few more rounds of 00z and 12z runs w/out any major failures.

It is sort of uncharted territory. It's like when all of the siblings are behaving and playing nicely together, you think you MUST be missing something. LOL

[Kolk1604]

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Jesus christ there are a large numbers of absurdly snowy members on there.

[SpaceRace22]

Here, have some dopamine, courtesy of 18z GEFS member #17

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm thinking 500' to 1000' snow levels. No snow at sea level. Then some cool sunny 35 degree days.

[OysterPrintout]

I think some folks are blacking out the trauma of far more consistent model runs that fell to  . Buckle up and gird your loins cause there are gonna end up some winners and losers except for the lords up in the hills. We got a ways to go no matter how much the big picture is already apparently etched in stone. If you can keep your wits about you while all others are losing their etc. etc. so forth something about the GFS you'll be a man my son. 

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

I'm thinking 500' to 1000' snow levels. No snow at sea level. Then some cool sunny 35 degree days.

Aww sweetie, did you need some attention?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

And hate Tim!

How could anyone hate this forum’s best poster?

[Weiner Warrior]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Aww sweetie, did you need some attention?

Naw.. just being realistic.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How could anyone hate this forum’s best poster?

You’re not wrong.

[Minion]

40 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Respectfully, hard disagree. There are countless other places on the internet for measured and reasonable discussion about the most likely outcome. This place is fun because people are allowed to cheerlead the extreme solutions without being shouted down about managing expectations. Everyone here understands that the extreme solutions 7+ days out on the models are unlikely to happen. That isn't the point.

This isn't an official forecast outlet disseminating real forecasts intended for the general public to be consuming and making real decisions off of.

Okay well as long as you know the whole " 1950" lingo is thrown out way to much on here.

[Minion]

25 minutes ago, T-Town said:

This is what attracted me to this site in the first place. A bunch of people who know a ton about weather who really really really want it to snow. 

I definitely want it to snow lol I just said it's 7 days out... I'm being realistic which I don't see as a problem.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Didn’t the models come into agreement surprisingly far out in December 2008?

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Minion said:

Okay well as long as you know the whole " 1950" lingo is thrown out way to much on here.

This is a forum for weather nerds who really really love snow. Let people enjoy things.

[Minion]

39 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Honestly, the models showing "historical" outcomes is pretty much an annual tradition.

It's a stunning indictment of a winter if it doesn't at some point happen. 

It will get watered down. Which is fine because we have room for error.

[Gradient Keeper]

After so many years, the trials and tribulations of model riding, all of the highs and lows, the expectations both realistic or unrealistic, throughout it all I have learned, and do not go all-in until we're within that magical 72 hour time frame. Even after that I'm not convinced until I see the northerly winds blasting through the Okanagan into Omak and through the Columbia Basin signaling arctic air spilling southward. For Western Washington folks similar with arctic air blasting through the Fraser into Whatcom county and points southward. We have a long, long ways to go.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Minion said:

I definitely want it to snow lol I just said it's 7 days out... I'm being realistic which I don't see as a problem.

No it’s absolutely not a problem being realistic and stating an opinion. Theres a difference between being a realistic and being a troll like some people…which I do not think you’re doing at all. 

[Minion]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

This is a forum for weather nerds who really really love snow. Let people enjoy things.

Lol I love snow as well. I'm still entitled to my opinion that we won't see anything " historical ".

 

That being said we will do good 

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

38 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

4 runs in a row, of every single major model. I don't think it's possible to overstate the significance of every single model being in just firm agreement within 10 days. That's a huge deal. This isn't the same kind of "models showing something historic" as the 324 hour 18z GFS flash in the pans we get every year.

And no, there was not quite the same level of agreement with most of the events that got rug pulled so dramatically the last couple years. The Euro or someone else was always a little dicey on those.

Yeah. I completely agree with you here.

 

4 good GFS runs, 2 good ECMWF runs, 2(or 3? I forgot) good GEM runs, with a lot of good ensembles (although those ensembles being in the minority) is a big deal. 

 

Sometimes the ensembles just aren't seeing what the main runs are seeing because they aren't as powerful, and I think this could very much be one of those times that the bulk of the ensembles are just incapable of seeing the big picture. I know I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I'm sticking to my guns unlike a lot of people here, discouraged by the ensembles

I would rather be right about it being cold and snowy, at risk of being disappointed, then be right about it not being super cold, and potentially being surprised. It's much more fun to root for the cold and snow.

 

 

Edit: I should make if clear that I'm not 100% convinced, or even close to that, I am waiting till Friday morning to see if they stay as consistently cold. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Didn’t the models come into agreement surprisingly far out in December 2008?

Yeah, 7 to 8 days out. It was incredibly remarkable and we haven't seen anything remotely close to that since.

00z GFS in 1 hour 56 minutes

[Minion]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

No it’s absolutely not a problem being realistic and stating an opinion. Theres a difference between being a realistic and being a troll like some people…which I do not think you’re doing at all. 

Thank you that's all I was trying to say.

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Interesting that this may be our fifth occurrence in the last four years where we have decent agreement within a “believable” range for what would be considered a top tier event (1/20, 2/21, 12/21, 12/22). Not to mention the run ups to last January and February’s events. 

Been quite the run for model riders.

And shockingly all of those turned out well for up here delivering anywhere from 9-14" of snow and temperatures 15-20F below average. Heck, the two December events were probably close to top tier with single digit low temperatures and highs in the teens/low 20s.

Which is probably why this either is not going to happen at all, happen in the exact same way as those last four, or actually verify close to shown. But realistically, I have no confidence in even seeing flakes in the air let alone an arctic blast. I'll wait for another couple days to buy in emotionally, and in the meantime it will be kind of entertaining (if not a bit painful) to watch the meltdown chaos when the inevitable pull-back occurs in the next couple model runs.

[CloudJunkie]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This is a forum for weather nerds who really really love snow. Let people enjoy things.

I love all our weather, except for fluorescent gray overcast. The dense fog we had recently was super awesome.

[Slushy Inch]

58 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Genocide Mike!

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Yeah. I completely agree with you here.

 

4 good GFS runs, 2 good ECMWF runs, 2(or 3? I forgot) good GEM runs, with a lot of good ensembles (although those ensembles being in the minority) is a big deal. 

 

Sometimes the ensembles just aren't seeing what the main runs are seeing because they aren't as powerful, and I think this could very much be one of those times that the bulk of the ensembles are just incapable of seeing the big picture. I know I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I'm sticking to my guns unlike a lot of people here, discouraged by the ensembles

I would rather be right about it being cold and snowy, at risk of being disappointed, then be right about it not being super cold, and potentially being surprised. It's much more fun to root for the cold and snow.

100000% this. Let's be honest, 90% of the fun with all this is the anticipation. I would take being disappointed by a huge bust every single time over getting surprised by a big snowstorm after sitting there with my arms crossed and muttering "not gonna happen" for 2 weeks leading up to it. I get so much value out of the excitement from the lead up period to big weather events that it's so strange to me when people are so determined to be "realistic" in face of very strong positive indications on the models. Even if you're right, what's the fun in extreme downplaying the whole time? Like why even care then?

It's like sports. You gotta believe there's a chance, even if your team is a massive underdog, because there's no point in even paying attention if you don't.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Minion said:

It will get watered down. Which is fine because we have room for error.

You in Vancouver USA or in the YVR?

Edited January 4 by BLI snowman

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Headed to work. Keeping hopes high for continued consistency in the big 3 operational models tonight!

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

After so many years, the trials and tribulations of model riding, all of the highs and lows, the expectations both realistic or unrealistic, throughout it all I have learned, and do not go all-in until we're within that magical 72 hour time frame. Even after that I'm not convinced until I see the northerly winds blasting through the Okanagan into Omak and through the Columbia Basin signaling arctic air spilling southward. For Western Washington folks similar with arctic air blasting through the Fraser into Whatcom county and points southward. We have a long, long ways to go.

I never believe until the shrinkage is right there before me.

[Kolk1604]

lol I think before the 00z runs last night we were on page 21. Were up to 85 now. 

[SpaceRace22]

If there's gonna be a rug pull, I feel like it will probably be within the next 24 hours. The pattern is starting to set up in the 4-5 day range now, so the models are going to start to get a pretty firm handle on at least the opening shot here pretty soon. Tomorrow's runs will have the setup within the 96 frame, which is getting dangerously close to locked in at that point. If the rug is gonna pull, we will have to see the initial tugs soon here.

[Tanis Leach]

How has there been 45 pages in the last 20 hours? This outpaces Feb 22 2023. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

How has there been 45 pages in the last 20 hours? This outpaces Feb 22 2023. 

Only 25 posts per page now instead of 50. So it’d be at page 45 if there were 50 per page.

Good luck south valley bro. I’m hoping your seasonal forecast of a bit of snow for us down here will come to fruition.

[The Winter Warlock]

3 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

How has there been 45 pages in the last 20 hours? This outpaces Feb 22 2023. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

27 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I think some folks are blacking out the trauma of far more consistent model runs that fell to  . Buckle up and gird your loins cause there are gonna end up some winners and losers except for the lords up in the hills. We got a ways to go no matter how much the big picture is already apparently etched in stone. If you can keep your wits about you while all others are losing their etc. etc. so forth something about the GFS you'll be a man my son. 

Every good set of runs increase the chances!

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

And shockingly all of those turned out well for up here delivering anywhere from 9-14" of snow and temperatures 15-20F below average. Heck, the two December events were probably close to top tier with single digit low temperatures and highs in the teens/low 20s.

Which is probably why this either is not going to happen at all, happen in the exact same way as those last four, or actually verify close to shown. But realistically, I have no confidence in even seeing flakes in the air let alone an arctic blast. I'll wait for another couple days to buy in emotionally, and in the meantime it will be kind of entertaining (if not a bit painful) to watch the meltdown chaos when the inevitable pull-back occurs in the next couple model runs.

I think another 24 hours of sexy regional blast runs secures places north of Seattle as a pretty safe bet to at least see something bleeding out of the Fraser in this type of synoptic pattern. Realistically even the all-time model disasters like January 2005, 2011, and 2020 wound up delivering in those areas.

Much less margin for error once you start to get south of Paine Field or so.

[smerfylicious]

These beautiful runs are being ruined by my wife finding rat sh!t all over our house. 

I just had to call up a bunch of exterminators. Looks like I'm paying $299 for treatment and $79 a month for the next 2 years of quarterly coverage...woo.

[SeanNyberg]

I sort of feel bad for the professional mets, especially those on air personalities. You know they LOVE wild weather and probably want to get in the mix about fantasy model runs, but they have to play it cool and almost play dumb as to not spook the public.

Starting to see some "Mountain snow finally coming. Nothing in the lowlands anytime soon" type posts. You know they see the models and you know they want to say "but there is real potential for some epic winter weather!" but they can't. They have to be measured and short-sighted.

It isn't there fault. Imagine if Komo, King, Kiro, and q13 blasted headlines about "6-12 inches possible for Seattle in the next ten days with the potential of ZERO degree temperatures!"

The city would go into a panic.

So I don't blame them and I respect their professionalism and restraint. But you know they're all snow lovers and are hoping these models verify!