Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
12z GFS seems to be showing a less intense secondary warm spell, but it’s also backed off from the troughy pattern in the long range being shown on some runs yesterday. Seems the models are struggling with how to handle that period.
Snow definitely would’ve added to the fun, but overall the blast this January was pretty top tier in every other aspect. Who knows when we will actually see ice formations like this down on the Puget sound again. Might be decades before it happens again.
The conversations this morning in my PT session (can't help overhearing with 10 different sessions going at the same time in a big open room) would have made Jesse's head explode. I am not sure he could have made it through without bursting out and telling everyone they are wrong. Its a burden being superior to all other humans.
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