January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z looks good out to hour 90. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z looks good out to hour 90. 

Unchanged to this point, but the deal breaker pattern change point is tues/wed

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Druncle time!

[Kolk1604]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Overall maybe not quite as good so far. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Still on track at hour 138, here comes the pivot point

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll say very very minor changes at this point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Still on track at hour 138, here comes the pivot point

The loading of arctic air in W. Canada isn't as good at this point, that's the only real nit I can pick so far. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Not as strong as 12z

[Phishy Wx]

46 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Exceptional potential ahead. Perhaps historic. The correlation score % are quite high too.

Jan 59 and 68 are very 'garden variety' in these parts.  meh

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Little weaker at 850 mb, but for the most part the same out to 156

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Not as strong as 12z

No not at all. On the other hand it's still snowing here by 11a Tuesday. So it's still solid, just not as connected to the bitterly cold airmass. We'll see where things go from here. I'm not panicking yet. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is looking like a more realistic solution.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No not at all. On the other hand it's still snowing here by 11a Tuesday. So it's still solid, just not as connected to the bitterly cold airmass. We'll see where things go from here. I'm not panicking yet. 

Its still far enough West and the cold 850 is there, just a little late. 

[Phishy Wx]

lol druncle the most 'sober' run of the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, this is solid.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

All in all pretty similar out to 174. That is 4 straight GFS runs and 2 straight Euro runs. Probably not a fluke at this point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The differences are very very minor. 

[Phishy Wx]

maybe the most realistic solution IS the outlier?

[Kolk1604]

Looks more west to me 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Medford gets absolutely blasted on this run. 

[Front Ranger]

Arctic air is a wee bit slower to move south.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Block is a little weaker. We are really nitpicking rn lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is amazing to be this accurate the last 4 runs. They are all very very close.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks more west to me 

It is for sure trending west, which we need. Hopefully the control and GEFS follow

[High Desert Mat?]

18z is pretty much the same so far to hour 180. Just wish the block was beefier down low on all the runs. It has undercut written all over them. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ok we can work with this.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is amazing to be this accurate the last 4 runs. They are all very very close.

It really is stunning to see this consistency out to 200 hours across most models for 4 runs in a row

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It is for sure trending west, which we need. Hopefully the control and GEFS follow

We need it to just stay the same. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It is for sure trending west, which we need. Hopefully the control and GEFS follow

soon the motherlode of arctic will drop in the sea

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here she comes at hr 186

[MikeInEverett]

Block is a bit weaker than the 12z but pretty close to what it was on the 06z

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It really is stunning to see this consistency out to 200 hours across most models for 4 runs in a row

Dec 2008 vibes?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

This is like the 5th upslope event on me this run...

[Phishy Wx]

looks decent ridge bridge not as thick though

[Front Ranger]

Definitely more Arctic air going over the ocean before reaching WA this run...will probably be quite snowy by day 10.

[SeanNyberg]

Let's just be honest, the 18z is the same. LOL

Wobbles at 850mb of a few degrees or a few hours is just noise that far out. Same with an inch or two here and there.

This is REMARKABLY unchanged. It's almost unreal how consistent things are being since last night.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

This might be the best run