January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[MossMan]

Currently a wet sunny deck…Soon to be a WHITE FROZEN deck!!!! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS isnt committing quite yet. Slight improvement at Day 9 vs 00z. 

 

 

That's still pretty cold though.  And so much better than 24 hours ago.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS not quite there, but still pretty solid. All things considered.

[MossMan]

Okay nobody shower or change their underwear until the first flakes fly…We cannot take any chances by jinxing this!!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Anybody the WRF GFS? I can never figure out how to use that antiquated system from the 1800's. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One or two more days of runs like these and I’ll have to get serious about winterizing the property and loading up on alfalfa. 

[snow drift]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Spokane has only had subzero highs on six occasions, I believe: 1884, 1888, 1950, 1964, 1968, and 1989. This Euro run shows it happening a seventh time, and getting colder than some of those years.

Don't forget December 1978 and December 1990.

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody the WRF GFS? I can never figure out how to use that antiquated system from the 1800's. 

It’s loading on Cliff Mass’s Commodore 64 as we speak. He should have it out to us shortly. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Okay nobody shower or change their underwear until the first flakes fly…We cannot take any chances by jinxing this!!! 

Can we Crap?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z really juices up the arctic front IMBY.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EPS not quite there, but still pretty solid. All things considered.

We should prepare ourselves for one of the upcoming 18z/00z runs to slide east as a lot of the EPS/GEPS members suggest. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

39 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

 

January snow is the best snow, that's how I feel right now

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensemble coming in 3F colder at the surface than last night.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS still isnt sold on how the Alaskan ridge develops. The last two OP runs for all models want to pump it up but EPS still isnt quite there yet

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently a wet sunny deck…Soon to be a WHITE FROZEN deck!!!! 

I like how you're already prepared for next xmas

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

decently chilly

 

EPS looks like it wants to go east?  

The “EPS” as it’s being referred to here is a smoothed average of many members (especially the map that only shows the mean, not so much the more informative spaghetti charts). There are likely some individual members showing a solution closer to climo which would shift the average position of the features we’re looking at. Wants to go east would be a mischaracterization though. Right now the biggest thing to look for on the ensemble mean itself would be a favorable shift compared to last night’s, since that would represent more individual members jumping on board for moving Arctic air into Oregon and Washington.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS still isnt sold on how the Alaskan ridge develops. The last two OP runs for all models want to pump it up but EPS still isnt quite there yet

resolution is a *****

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can we Crap?

All I can say is that everyone should stay away from Taco Bell as well…We just cannot take ANY chances 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Don't forget December 1979 and December 1990.

December 1978, you mean, and you're right December 1990 barely did as well with the second blast.

So this would be the first time in 34 years if it happens. And first time in January since 1950.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z really juices up the arctic front IMBY.

It was nice knowing yall

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I like how you're already prepared for next xmas

Outside Christmas stays up until the second week of March! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The “EPS” as it’s being referred to here is a smoothed average of many members (especially the map that only shows the mean, not so much the more informative spaghetti charts). There are likely some individual members showing a solution closer to climo which would shift the average position of the features we’re looking at. Wants to go east would be a mischaracterization though. Right now the biggest thing to look for on the ensemble mean itself would be a favorable shift compared to last night’s, since that would represent more individual members jumping on board for moving Arctic air into Oregon and Washington.

My main point I guess is it’s good look at the EPS mean as a probabilistic graphic as opposed to a standalone outcome, the way you would an operational model. I feel like that happens a lot here, where posters will view an ensemble mean like a face value forecast.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Pretty sure this is the coldest single Euro frame I've ever seen for my location. I'm calling it now. I don't think I'm going to get down to -6F.

You're right.

Gonna be a bit colder than that.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I like how you're already prepared for next xmas

I'm going to say a hot take, all Christmas lights should stay on until February (as long as you can afford the powerbill). I go pretty insane with Christmas decorations, and I always leave all my lights up till late January or early February, although I take down the Christmas themed decorations, like Santa, Reindeer, etc, around New year. The point of Christmas lights is to light up the dark sad time of year.

 

I despise people who dislike Christmas lights being on after Christmas. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody the WRF GFS? I can never figure out how to use that antiquated system from the 1800's. 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/load.cgi?images_d2/ww_snowacc.240.0000.gif

 

Their 1 1/3 K resolution run that goes out about 72 hours has been remarkably accurate for snow in my area.  Still too early for that though.

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

We should prepare ourselves for one of the upcoming 18z/00z runs to slide east as a lot of the EPS/GEPS members suggest. 

This far out we should be prepared for a 36 hour span where the whole outcome just melts aways to "at least the mountains will get some snow".

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

You're right.

Gonna be a bit colder than that.

Agreed. -10 in bend? Correct it to -18. ITS COMING!!

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

My main point I guess is it’s good look at the EPS mean as a probabilistic graphic as opposed to a standalone outcome, the way you would an operational model. I feel like that happens a lot here, where posters will view an ensemble mean like a face value forecast.

I view it as the mean solution of the ensemble members

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

This far out we should be prepared for a 36 hour span where the whole outcome just melts aways to "at least the mountains will get some snow".

maybe a run on a 55 degree AR

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS ensemble shows Jasper/Pisgah areas getting buried.

[RentonHill]

Similar to last nights run two weeks out. Have to wait for the spaghetti/meteograms but hopefully that suggests any solutions that go east first will retro to us a la 2019 or something, or we'll get a second shot as our pacific block resets more favorably?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All I know of January is heartbreak.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought you just tested positive for COVID? 

Shhh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Similar to last nights run two weeks out. Have to wait for the spaghetti/meteograms but hopefully that suggests any solutions that go east first will retro to us a la 2019 or something, or we'll get a second shot as our pacific block resets more favorably?

Even hour 342 looks good.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I view it as the mean solution of the ensemble members

That’s what it is. In which case it will almost always be more modified than an operational run, especially at range. So there’s no use reading too much into the mean itself showing a solution closer to climo than the operational. Main thing to watch in the EPS mean at this range in is run to run change. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It was nice knowing yall

Note that the amounts on that map were in cm.

[LowerGarfield]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Wunderground and InAccurate Wx not biting yet

Yeah, for fun I checked Stanwood's in town one (I think it's near Amtrak) which is less snowy than Moss's place and WU is not budging lol. @MossMan

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

This far out we should be prepared for a 36 hour span where the whole outcome just melts aways to "at least the mountains will get some snow".

Goddamn dude.

[snow drift]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

December 1978, you mean, and you're right December 1990 barely did as well with the second blast.

So this would be the first time in 34 years if it happens. And first time in January since 1950.

Yes, I fixed my post. I fat fingered it.