January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[snow_wizard]

I'm actually pretty happy the change in the EPS was more from a few more warm members as opposed to the cold members moderating.  That's an important distinction.

[snow_wizard]

Another thought...the only real model fail of any cold wave in the past several years was January 2020.  All of the others worked out at least pretty well.  

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another thought...the only real model fail of any cold wave in the past several years was January 2020.  All of the others worked out at least pretty well.  

So we're due?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

So we're due?

It's coming.

[snow_wizard]

I've been trying to find my cool old man winter graphic for my sig, but I can't find it.  Can't remember what I named it or what folder it might be in.  It is needed!

[MossMan]

Dynamic day on that Monday! Flash thaw! Lol 

Edited January 6 by MossMan

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Dynamic day on that Monday! Flash thaw! Lol 

I wonder how they came up with that?

[SpaceRace22]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The spaghetti on the EPS is shockingly good.  I can't cut and paste that, but this shows it well.  About 2/3 of the members are quite cold and a third are a lot warmer than previous runs which gives the mean a much worse look.  The real kicker is the mean 850s still drop to -10.5 on this run.  Only 0.5 higher than the 12z.  2/3 of the members are fantastic.

Agreed that they are still good overall, they are certainly a step back from the 12z ensembles, which were also a step back from last night's 00z ensembles. I think the concern here is more the trend rather than the absolute result we have.

Now, that said, it's still completely possible that the trend bounces back the other way. We are still just a bit outside the range where I'd consider any given outcome "locked in", and it really would not take much for this to all come roaring back the other way. The fact that there are still so many absolute top tier members there shows that something good is still totally plausible, so who knows. I've got my fork on the table and ready to go, but not sticking it in until at least tomorrow night.

Compare:

Tonight's 00z:

Today's 12z:

[ShawniganLake]

No update from all the fancy new AI models tonight.   

[Deweydog]

Stormy out!

[SpaceRace22]

35 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I see the scheduled weekend pullback has people in doubt. It coming. 

I really wish this forum had proper archives from past events. I would love to comb through past big successful events and big rug pulls and make charts of what the ensemble means were showing for each day leading up to it. Would be cool to see some actual data for when the many pullbacks we've had actually occur. I *feel* like it's usually always about 5-6 days out when the models do this, but I want to see the real numbers behind it. It would be interesting to know what percent of the time the models will rug pull at this point and then still return to something close to what they were showing closer to 7+ days out.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Stormy out!

Affirmative.

[SpaceRace22]

The 00z Spire just published (it all seems to poop out at once), and I am terrified to look at it.

[snow_wizard]

The Spire is F...ing epic!  And another one just like it at day 10.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

No update from all the fancy new AI models tonight.   

There was...it's very good.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I really wish this forum had proper archives from past events. I would love to comb through past big successful events and big rug pulls and make charts of what the ensemble means were showing for each day leading up to it. Would be cool to see some actual data for when the many pullbacks we've had actually occur. I *feel* like it's usually always about 5-6 days out when the models do this, but I want to see the real numbers behind it. It would be interesting to know what percent of the time the models will rug pull at this point and then still return to something close to what they were showing closer to 7+ days out.

This is a great idea.

[SpaceRace22]

AS I'VE ALWAYS SAID, THE SPIRE IS FAR SUPERIOR TO EVERY OTHER MODEL AND ALWAYS HAS BEEN

[snow_wizard]

In some ways this is better than the first trough.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z Spire just published (it all seems to poop out at once), and I am terrified to look at it.

Amazing run!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

AS, I'VE ALWAYS SAID, THE SPIRE IS FAR SUPERIOR TO EVERY OTHER MODEL AND ALWAYS HAS BEEN

In this case their superior data gathering techniques may pay dividends.  This situation is so complex more data certainly can't hurt.

[snow_wizard]

The Spire run has a definite Graph Cast flavor to it.

[SpaceRace22]

This is actually interesting. This is the first time where the Spire has meaningfully diverged from some of the other big models. This will be an excellent test to see if it's worth anything or not.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I really wish this forum had proper archives from past events. I would love to comb through past big successful events and big rug pulls and make charts of what the ensemble means were showing for each day leading up to it. Would be cool to see some actual data for when the many pullbacks we've had actually occur. I *feel* like it's usually always about 5-6 days out when the models do this, but I want to see the real numbers behind it. It would be interesting to know what percent of the time the models will rug pull at this point and then still return to something close to what they were showing closer to 7+ days out.

There are always rug pulls.  Just part of the ride.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

This is actually interesting. This is the first time where the Spire has meaningfully diverged from some of the other big models. This will be an excellent test to see if it's worth anything or not.

This run is incredible in that has two MAJOR cold shots.

[SpaceRace22]

King Spire still bitterly cold west of the Cascades

[snow_wizard]

I am super stoked about the potential this has.

[Corncob]

14 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I really wish this forum had proper archives from past events. I would love to comb through past big successful events and big rug pulls and make charts of what the ensemble means were showing for each day leading up to it. Would be cool to see some actual data for when the many pullbacks we've had actually occur. I *feel* like it's usually always about 5-6 days out when the models do this, but I want to see the real numbers behind it. It would be interesting to know what percent of the time the models will rug pull at this point and then still return to something close to what they were showing closer to 7+ days out.

Surely we can collectively fund a grad student at this point?! 

[Tanis Leach]

6 hours ago, Dave said:

We've had some great meteorologists over the years. Jon Fischer, Joseph Calbreath. It's just that the local stations have been sold out to the national corporations like Sinclair. Pretty much none of them understand the various local microclimates and they all just use Eugene as a stepping stone. Sucks. 

Is that telling me to get a job in Eugene?

 

/s.... maybe

[Meatyorologist]

six zee is running and i can't sleep!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

six zee is running and i can't sleep!

JMA should be posted soon also. 

[Requiem]

Really really stormy outside, which I wasn't exactly expecting 

[AbbyJr]

[Gradient Keeper]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Spire is F...ing epic!  And another one just like it at day 10.

This has some real similarities to yesterday's 12z Euro at Day 7.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

38 degrees and pouring 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Still a lot of great model runs tonight in spite of the GFS.

[SpaceRace22]

Fwiw, that stupid low on day 3 comes in at 992mb on the Spire. Not all that much weaker than the GFS. This might actually even be basically the same as the GFS, hard to tell with the limited frames of the Spire. On the GFS, by the time it gets as far inland as you see in this frame, it's at 991mb.

[Meatyorologist]

Good god this GFS run sucks.

[Doinko]

It's been dumping rain for the past hour or so. Breezy too

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Good god this GFS run sucks.

What hour are you out to? It doesn't look much different to me yet, but I'm only at hour 60.

[Doinko]

970mb low??