1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has a powerful storm, but the upper low is way too far southeast for this area.  It also has oddly weak and mixed cold-sector precip, despite having a surface low falling to the 970s.  The warm sector of this storm will have a ton of convection and heavy rain.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro has a powerful storm, but the upper low is way too far southeast for this area.  It also has oddly weak and mixed cold-sector precip, despite having a surface low falling to the 970s.  The warm sector of this storm will have a ton of convection and heavy rain.

I don't remember exactly what run it was, but there was a Euro run about 4 or 5 cycles back that was a hot mess kind of like this run.  Wouldn't take it too seriously at this point (actually wouldn't take any op run too seriously at this point)

[MKEstorm]

Wow! That 0z Euro was a HOT mess! Yikes! 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

[Clinton]

6z GFS 

GEFS

[Clinton]

6z Euro a little stronger than 0z at hr 90.

6z

0z

 

[Clinton]

6z ICON

[ATW]

42 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS 

GEFS

I think it’s over Clinton. Maybe next storm. 

[Tom]

Either way you look at it, this is going to be quite an impactful storm to say the least that'll cover a large area of the U.S.  As we exit what has been a VERY warm pattern, to get a storm to dump a widespread heavy wet snow, IMHO, that's actually not a bad thing considering it will freeze into a nice base as we head into a much colder pattern.  Creating a nice glacier before chances of more snow on snow is going to be fun for some you in the MW/GL's!

 

 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, ATW said:

I think it’s over Clinton. Maybe next storm. 

I disagree with that especially for your area.

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control and EPS

[KTPmidMO]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control and EPS

Clinton, what is your opinion on this storm here in MO? I was looking an NOAA 7 day forecast for Jeff City and they have the whole event forecast as either rain or rain/snow mix. No mention whatsoever of accumulating snow in the 7 day forecast. Yet, if you read forecast discussion, they mention accumulating snow will happen somewhere in central Missouri. Am I missing something? Are we not gonna be able to get the cold air like models are predicting?

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Clinton, what is your opinion on this storm here in MO? I was looking an NOAA 7 day forecast for Jeff City and they have the whole event forecast as either rain or rain/snow mix. No mention whatsoever of accumulating snow in the 7 day forecast. Yet, if you read forecast discussion, they mention accumulating snow will happen somewhere in central Missouri. Am I missing something? Are we not gonna be able to get the cold air like models are predicting?

I think temps around or slightly above freezing will be a bit of a problem.  I wish there was artic air phasing into the system however this will have a ton of moisture to work with.  For mid Missouri I would think 3-6 inches of heavy wet snow would certainly be possible Monday night and Tuesday morning.  The trowel as of this minute if forecasted to move through central MO and that is where the heaviest snow will be.  A nice snow yes but without artic air 12+ amounts seem real unlikely but 3-6 inch snow in Missouri especially in a warm year is a good snow.

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think temps around or slightly above freezing will be a bit of a problem.  I wish there was artic air phasing into the system however this will have a ton of moisture to work with.  For mid Missouri I would think 3-6 inches of heavy wet snow would certainly be possible Monday night and Tuesday morning.  The trowel as of this minute if forecasted to move through central MO and that is where the heaviest snow will be.  A nice snow yes but without artic air 12+ amounts seem real unlikely but 3-6 inch snow in Missouri especially in a warm year is a good snow.

Think about this system as a Storm that transitions out of an old warm pattern into a new one that appears to become a bonafide Real Winter pattern we were all expecting to happen this winter.  Seeing it Snow, whether its a wet variety or fine powder...based on the guidance I'm seeing this will be ripping snow for whoever sits underneath that defo band.  Big FATTY flakes flying will be sight to see!

[hawkstwelve]

Omaha is looking to be in a pretty good spot for this first system. 

 

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I disagree with that especially for your area.

It seems to be trending northwest. I may be jumping the gun so I guess we’ll see with later runs. 

[Clinton]

Just now, ATW said:

It seems to be trending northwest. I may be jumping the gun so I guess we’ll see with later runs. 

Where will that defo band set up, will it be through the Ozarks like the models are showing now or will it be along the I-35 corridor between Witchita and KC?  The I-35 area from KC back south has done really well this season with precip. 

[bud2380]

Last frame of the NAM.  We're finally getting close to short term model range.  

 

[bud2380]

NAM totals through 6pm Monday.  I like how it's keeping that WAA wing of precip alive and well into central and about to go into eastern Iowa.  Something models were not showing earlier in the week, but are starting to latch on to.

 

[MIKEKC]

Good track for KC on the latest ICON

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS looking better for Missouri areas vs 06z.

This is just through Tuesday AM...

 

[Clinton]

50 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Last frame of the NAM.  We're finally getting close to short term model range.  

 

That dry slot yikes!

[Tom]

Ozark Nation in MO looks like it will be near Ground Zero...this is looking increasingly interesting for ya'll in MO!

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Ozark Nation in MO looks like it will be near Ground Zero...this is looking increasingly interesting for ya'll in MO!

I would say!

[winterfreak]

Interesting:

[bud2380]

GFS brings the deformation band much further NW than it had been, clipping eastern Iowa, but keeps the initial surge of WAA to the west and south, unlike the Euro.  I'm banking on that WAA wing giving us 2-3" and then anything else would be bonus, but I am not expecting the deformation band to make it this far north.  

[hawkstwelve]

12z CMC really lessens the northern extent with this system. Gives me under a half inch.

Still a lot to figure out with this guy, especially for up here.

[Hawkeye]

52 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z CMC really lessens the northern extent with this system. Gives me under a half inch.

Still a lot to figure out with this guy, especially for up here.

The Canadian is tracking the upper low well south of all other models.

[Black Hole]

If I had to guess, I think the CMC is too far south. I think the end track will either be close to what the GFS has or north up to say 100 miles. I don't know if that helps anybody or not, but it's what I think is most likely. 

[Black Hole]

There are definitely some interesting things to note on today's model runs for down this way. Here is a GFS map of the track:

 

I grabbed this frame because it shows a trowel (or deformation zone) type structure with convective elements over my area. This could potentially greatly increase snow totals for somebody. It should continue to the northeast, so some folks in MO stand a better chance of seeing heavy banded snow. You can also see that on this plot. The warm and moist air isentropically rises around the low. 

The sounding is completely moist in that band, conditionally unstable in the dendritic growth zone, and with good omega. All good things for heavy banded precip. 

GFS snow totals look good, as you might expect. 3-6" here, much higher northeast.

Other models are similar for areas to the northeast, but the GFS was highest for me. 

 

[Tony]

Here is a map of the Ensemble showing a better depiction of the upcoming storm. Still some variance but getting a little better

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tony said:

Here is a map of the Ensemble showing a better depiction of the upcoming storm. Still some variance but getting a little better

One thing I'd say with rather good confidence for N IL folks is that I'd rather be inland from the lake.  Whether it's Crystal Lake, Naperville or somewhere else, not sure at this point as it depends on exact track.

[Tony]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One thing I'd say with rather good confidence for N IL folks is that I'd rather be inland from the lake.  Whether it's Crystal Lake, Naperville or somewhere else, not sure at this point as it depends on exact track.

Yep, not sure what influence the lake is going to have in the downtown/city area. Wrapping in the lake moisture will make for a tough forecast in this area with lake temps in the 30's I believe.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

Yep, not sure what influence the lake is going to have in the downtown/city area. Wrapping in the lake moisture will make for a tough forecast in this area with lake temps in the 30's I believe.

You can see that warm lake influence on the 12z GEFS map....

 

 

Some big hits in MO/C IL...

 

[KTPmidMO]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

You can see that warm lake influence on the 12z GEFS map....

 

 

Some big hits in MO/C IL...

 

A lot of members with nice hits for here in Central MO. I'll take Member 20 all day! lol

[bud2380]

Euro at 9am Monday.