ATW Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Clinton said: IMO the 12z GEFS favors the Canadian. We may be a little too far south for this too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 12z EPS 12z GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, Money said: Nam Would be epic totals in northwest IN. Already 20" at the end of the run with hours of snow to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would be epic totals in northwest IN. Already 20" at the end of the run with hours of snow to go. I thought the map showed 8.4" in northwestern Indiana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 18z ICON at hr 66 is going to be a nice run for mby and other Missouri folks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Icon icon/NAM/Euro/Ukie vs GFS/CMC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, uticasnow said: I thought the map showed 8.4" in northwestern Indiana 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 18z ICON. Nice hit for Nebraska. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 That would be a once in 50 year non lake effect snow storm for our parts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think the NAM is wrong again, the low is strengthening and through Oklahoma and Arkansas but the snow shield is clear up in Iowa? Seems very off…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 18z ICON to 84 hours 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 I'd love to see this officially BOMB into the lower lakes... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Come ON!...We need this is southeast Michigan. Only a trace of snow so far this season. It's been pathetic 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 NWS FSD AFD on the model battle for this storm... Additional chances for light snow return late Thursday afternoon into Friday as a system well of to our south begins to traverse the central plains, though it looks like we will be missing out on the bulk of the moisture and forcing. Guidance continues to hint that snow looks most likely south of I-90, possibly even as far south as the highway 20 corridor, with a fairly sharp gradient on the north side due to northerly flow from the surface through the mid- levels. Amounts are looking to remain on the light side, generally less than an inch, though there is considerable uncertainty amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Looking at clustering analysis, it is shown that there is a general pattern where two of the clusters are dominated by the ECMWF, and the other two dominated by the GEFS, with the GEPS split fairly evenly amongst the 4 cluster solutions. What this means is that model biases are determining the sorting process, so it`s difficult to put more weight on any one solution. So, currently we are favoring the GEFS solution which keeps the track of the low further to the south, while the ECMWF has a track further to the north thus resulting in more snow, though still generally below 2 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Gfs is coming in stronger and north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 GFS is a bit later with the pressure drop but a bit better this run compared to 12z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 18z RGEM 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Graphic is records for KDSM Likely (very) not going to happen but that I'am even posting the chances are remarkable considering the pattern we just busted out. All time JAN snowfall 37.0" (VERY SAFE) Unreal record. Highest 7 day total 26.2" (Very safe) Unreal record Most snow on the ground 22" ( that clipper and another 10"-- not so safe) but not still safe--- breakable in this pattern but not likely Still that I even write this is something else. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 EAX early call on the storm AFD: Thursday into Thursday night a upper level trough will dig from the central Rockies into the central and southern Plains. This will force an attendant surface low to develop and deepen across the panhandles of OK/TX. This will force the pressure gradient to tighten across the area north of the now stationary front south of the area ushering in much colder air. Thursday night this surface low will move across Oklahoma as a LLJ develops ahead of it which will override the stationary front forcing moisture northward into the cold air in place. As such snow is expected to develop over the area Thursday night and continue into Friday as the surface low passes south of the area. How much snow and who will receive the heaviest amounts will depend on the track. The GFS and EC have a much further south track than the NAM and would bring at least advisory level snow to the entire area. The NAM solution would bring heavier snow to northern Missouri with lesser amounts across the southern CWA. So exact track of this system will still need to be ironed out however, it is increasing likely that most if not entire area will receive another round of accumulating snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 GFS wants to bring more snow across Nebraska on Sunday 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: GFS wants to bring more snow across Nebraska on Sunday EAX makes mention of that in there AFD. As cold as it will be it won't take much to produce a few inches of snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Already in RAP range 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 EPS mean 500 heights and MSLP for the 12z, 00z, and previous 12z runs. The main trend has been to slow the surface trough slightly, deepen it a bit more (sooner), and to also advance the surface high and cold air a bit faster behind the trough. For me the effect has been to increase from no snow to perhaps 1-2". If we could keep the trend going a bit more we might be able to increase totals but it still doesn't look real likely. Worst case scenario is nothing, best is probably 3-4" with the most likely outcome being 1-2". 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Not bad. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Looking at ensemble member panels, there are more GFS-like solutions among the EPS members than there are ECMWF-like solutions among the GEFS members. Might be a clue to which model camp will win, at least for out here. I wonder which model OP will blink first? More often than not I side with the Euro, which has generally worked out well. But in this case I have feeling the GFS is right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 @Tom I mentioned earlier my wife is flying out of ORD at 6pm Friday evening. I am considering moving her flight to Thursday evening. What are your thoughts on this storm with where we stand now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said: @Tom I mentioned earlier my wife is flying out of ORD at 6pm Friday evening. I am considering moving her flight to Thursday evening. What are your thoughts on this storm with where we stand now. I would move her flight 100%...Thursday pm is the "Calm before the Storm"... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Gnarly Kuchera numbers from the 18z Euro... one can dream of almost a foot of fluff! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 18z Euro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Author Report Share Posted January 10 At 72 hrs, the 18z Euro is 9 mb stronger than the 18z GFS at the same time. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, Tom said: I would move her flight 100%...Thursday pm is the "Calm before the Storm"... Thanks @Tom . I was leaning that way but was looking for reassurance. On with airline now. Thanks again 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 18z Euro is a move to the GFS for totals out here. Pretty decent shift south. Not surprised. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Chicago absolutely buried on that Euro run (subtract ~4" from Cook/Lake/McHenry nexus area to account for today's event) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Nice tidbit from Omaha AFD on why the NBM is too low: Quote Thursday through Monday: Before getting into specifics, the general forecast for the this period is that there are several chances for snow and there will be dangerously cold temperatures. The next 6 to 14 days are expected to have temperatures below normal. In the case of this weekend, it will be well below normal. Getting more specific, temperatures Thursday will start on the cold side with low temperatures dropping below 15 degrees for the entire area. Areas north of the Platte River will drop into the single digits. Light winds will result in minimum wind chill temperatures near -15. Unfortunately that will be considered "warm" given the extended forecast. High temperatures will not warm up much and will range between 11 and 29 degrees.A more robust mid-level shortwave will move across the central CONUS which will provide another chance for measurable snowfall beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday. NBM guidance suggested a 30 to 60 percent chance for precipitation across the area and this is far too low. The EPS and GEFS had 80 to 100 percent of ensemble members producing at least 0.01" or higher of liquid precipitation. The EPS had 80 to 100 percent of members producing at least 0.1" of liquid precipitation across the entire forecast area. There are some model difference which is why the NBM is coming in lower. The GFS not only has lower QPF, but there are some location differences between the two models. The GFS favors a more southerly track while the ECMWF is farther north. An additional 1 to 7 inches of snowfall could be observed across the area with higher amounts expected in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Confidence is lower in specific snowfall amounts and more time will be need for the models to come to a consensus. Unlike the system from yesterday, temperatures will not be a factor in undercutting snowfall totals. It`ll be how much moisture can be drawn north ahead of the trough and the path of the surface low. There are additional 20 to 30 percent chances for light snowfall Saturday and Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Another Chicago blizz. Close to throwing in the towel here. I busted high on my 1” cement call here today. It takes a special track for us to get a 2/13/07 redux. Congrats to those up north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, The Snowman said: Chicago absolutely buried on that Euro run (subtract ~4" from Cook/Lake/McHenry nexus area to account for today's event) Anyway to include MI in this map? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Author Report Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Chambana said: Another Chicago blizz. Close to throwing in the towel here. I busted high on my 1” cement call here today. It takes a special track for us to get a 2/13/07 redux. Congrats to those up north. I hope it comes back south for both of our sakes. Should do well here, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't just a wee bit nervous about subtle northward shifts. The wave that will be moving into the southern Plains is pretty amped, and it's possible that the neg tilting trough could try to pull the surface low a little bit farther west. I'm more concerned about that possibility than anything else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I hope it comes back south for both of our sakes. Should do well here, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't just a wee bit nervous about subtle northward shifts. The wave that will be moving into the southern Plains is pretty amped, and it's possible that the neg tilting trough could try to pull the surface low a little bit farther west. I'm more concerned about that possibility than anything else. You’re golden. Enjoy the storm. I’m going 2” here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.