January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Money]

Euro came in stronger and west than 18z

[jcwxguy]

[Money]

[indianajohn]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

If that verifies could be an extremely dangerous situation.. roughly 24 hours away

[hawkstwelve]

I'd happily take the 00z Euro solution as well. A nice compromise between the two model camps, similar to the 00z CMC.

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Money said:

fwiw, this run has about 2" precip out by ORD, and the only time there has been 2" or more precip in an all snow event (or at least 99% snow) in Chicago is the January 1967 storm.  That storm had 23" snow on 2.40" precip.  Not expecting a repeat of that of course.

[Money]

I have a TV met calling for 3-5 lakeshore counties and using the hr 48 HRRR as his reasoning and he thinks model QPF is too high because “what’s different between this system and last system that just came through” 

[Hoosier]

Nice thump signal around here on Friday morning on most models except for the amped up HRRR/RAP runs.  That looks capable of laying down a few inches if not a bit more before the thermal profiles could get tricky and flip to rain.  Don't even have a ton of agreement on the flip to rain though so who knows (even though I'd lean toward a changeover).  

[Hoosier]

At just 48 hrs, there is a 10 mb spread in the progged intensity of the surface low on the main models (so, not counting HRRR/RAP and some of the other hi-res stuff).  Range from 973 mb on the Euro to 983 mb on the ICON/GDPS.

[MKEstorm]

17 minutes ago, Money said:

I have a TV met calling for 3-5 lakeshore counties and using the hr 48 HRRR as his reasoning and he thinks model QPF is too high because “what’s different between this system and last system that just came through” 

Yeah, the mets are playing it safe with this storm, seeing what occurred near the lake yesterday. This system is much different though. It will be rapidly intensifying, whereas the storm yesterday not as much. There will be much stronger winds and also arctic air coming in behind it! Hopefully all of this can hold off any warm air off the lake. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[Money]

4 minutes ago, MKEstorm said:

Yeah, the mets are playing it safe with this storm, seeing what occurred near the lake yesterday. This system is much different though. It will be rapidly intensifying, whereas the storm yesterday not as much. There will be much stronger winds and also arctic air coming in behind it! Hopefully all of this can hold off any warm air off the lake. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Playing it safe is fine but using the hrrr 48 hours is stupid. HRRR should only be used within 10-15 hours or less 

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At just 48 hrs, there is a 10 mb spread in the progged intensity of the surface low on the main models (so, not counting HRRR/RAP and some of the other hi-res stuff).  Range from 973 mb on the Euro to 983 mb on the ICON/GDPS.

fwiw, with the last system, the deeper guidance won, at least around here.  I was following that aspect closely since the low was expected to make a close pass at unusual strength.  Doesn't necessarily mean the same thing will happen with this storm, although the weaker models do look a bit suspect in my opinion.  

[Hoosier]

Kind of more spread than you'd want to see at 48 hrs.  I'd start putting a lot of weight in the op runs anyway though.

[Grizzcoat]

Wont post the AFD- but DMX talking Blizzard Warning potential for late FRI into SAT - but don't want to confuse the public that it would be for the entire event.

One thing is certain - DMX must not believe in Wind Chill watches etc like OMX does.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

[james1976]

Winter Storm Watch for the TC! Warning just to the south.

[Grizzcoat]

[hawkstwelve]

WSW was downgraded to a WWA. Now calling for 3-6 inches. A WSW is in place one county to my south though for 4-8 inches. They do mention in their morning AFD that there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty and with any further northward shifts the advisory would be upgraded and totals would increase. 

Speaking of northward shifts, 06z NAM jumped back north a bit and this is a decent trend on the ICON.

[Tom]

13 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

DMX-

 Blizzard anyone? (NW is the trend)

The big system in the forecast is still on track to impact the
region by late Thursday afternoon and through Friday night. This
system is trending further to the northwest that the forecast from
24 hrs ago as the upper level system closes off earlier and leads to
this system. Highlights (or low lights, pending your perspective) of
this system include as strong low level moisture transport northward
from the Gulf. This system will have a strong push of theta-e
advection followed by the development of a TROWAL feature as warm
air and moisture wrap around the system. The TROWAL may result in an
enhanced region of banded heavy snowfall. Convective properties are
possible with this system and there is a better signal for slantwise
convective potential into central Iowa along with general elevated
convection possibly reaching the far southeast. Finally, snow
crystal morphology is trending dendritic with along with the
dendritic growth zone region deepening as colder air arrives
therefore, snow to liquid rations will be near to above climatology.
All in all, pending the exact track of this storm, another system
with warning criteria potential snowfall, with an a greater than
50% chance of heavy banded snow along the TROWAL should it set up
over Iowa as progged. The Arctic cold will begin to filter into Iowa
during this evening with increasing cold advection. This coupled
with a strong pressure gradient and mixed layer winds will lead to
the potential for wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph mainly later Friday and
Friday night. Given the current snow cover in place and storage
areas already partially full, blowing snow will be a greater impact
than this past event. Worst case scenario, this could turn into a
Blizzard. For now will highlight significant snow and blowing snow
possible. Will be issuing a Winter Storm Watch for Thursday night
through Friday evening for the entire area. Will continue to provide
higher resolution of timing and location as confidence increases.

AccuWx's take..."Here...Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard".... @jaster220 @Stacsh @westMJim...ya'll gonna see some wicked streamers coming off the warm LM!  This is going to become a dream storm for you guys.  

 

 

I had to squint my eyes and make sure what I was seeing was right...Euro is the Hero! @indianajohn @tbone8 @Hoosier

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Euro

[Tom]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'd happily take the 00z Euro solution as well. A nice compromise between the two model camps, similar to the 00z CMC.

This map paints what has happened all season long...the lack of any meaningful snow up in the Dakota's this year is noteworthy.  ...I'd say they lost their "Dakota's Snow Magnet"...we have seen Wayy to many seasons where those states "stole" our snow when I was living in the MW.  It should fill up some over the next 5 days.  Good luck and maybe you will score a few more inches on top of your glacier!

 

 

[Madtown]

I like that 06z Euro! Talk about a screw zone...

[Grizzcoat]

On 1/5/2024 at 10:26 PM, bud2380 said:

49” total snow in the next week for St Louis… seems totally plausible.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=207&y=141&site=lsx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=207&map_y=141

[Tom]

0z GEFS...

 

06z GEFS...

[shakjen]

9 hours ago, Money said:

local Mets suggesting a slight shift south in the latest guidance. We will see

[tStacsh]

Well, zeroing in on quite a snowstorm here.  I've got nowhere to go this weekend.   So I'm taking a half day of work tomorrow and just going to see how it turns out.   Worried about the power, though it rarely goes out at my house due to underground power lines.   Still a lot of snow on the trees.   Looks like we could see some heavy wet snow in the beginning.  Add in the wind and ugh.  Stocking up on beer and groceries.  Hunkering down to watch a lot of football this weekend.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Last minute surprise?  NAM putting a good band of snow over my area. I’ll be watching the radar all day. Good luck everyone. 

[CentralNebWeather]

3KM 

[FV-Mike]

LOT sticking with global models. 

The
forecast for this storm system continues to be handled best by
the more consistent global forecast models and ensembles
(especially the ECMWF and its ensemble members). We therefore
continue to steer the forecast in this direction. Currently, many
of the higher resolution models such as the HRRR, NAM and RAP
continue to be northern and warm outliers with the system, and
thus, their current iterations are not favored.

 

Anyone have a good memory of the 12/15/87 that they are comparing this too?

confidence continues to increase that this anomalously strong storm system (which bears a striking similarity to the heart attack snowstorm of Dec 15, 1987) will produce major impacts across much of northern IL into Saturday morning.

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

LOT sticking with global models. 

The
forecast for this storm system continues to be handled best by
the more consistent global forecast models and ensembles
(especially the ECMWF and its ensemble members). We therefore
continue to steer the forecast in this direction. Currently, many
of the higher resolution models such as the HRRR, NAM and RAP
continue to be northern and warm outliers with the system, and
thus, their current iterations are not favored.

 

Anyone have a good memory of the 12/15/87 that they are comparing this too?

confidence continues to increase that this anomalously strong storm system (which bears a striking similarity to the heart attack snowstorm of Dec 15, 1987) will produce major impacts across much of northern IL into Saturday morning.

Chicago was riding the rain/snow line, but in the end it was snow.  Extremely heavy wet snow but accumulated 8-12" across the area with 60 mph winds.  It led to many heart attacks trying to shovel it.  

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

NSSL 

[East Dubzz]

Go NAM lol!!

[Pros3lyte]

HRW Needs to GET LOST!

[Wheezer]

The winds blowing over the warm lake water could make a degree or two difference for chicago during parts of the precipitation,  possibly cutting in to amounts