bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 15z RAP just buries many locations. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 from midnight to 6am the RAP just hammers Eastern Iowa. 9.2" in Iowa City in a 6 hour period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 LaCrosse AFD mentioned the possibility of 2+"/hour rates with this lead WAA band. As main wave in question rounds base of western trough and ejects northeast towards the Great Lakes on Friday, lots of dynamics in play that will lead to impressive cyclogenesis. Based on 11.03z RAP surface low will deepen from 996 mb near Kansas City tonight to 966 mb over Lake Michigan east of Milwaukee by Friday evening. Hints of coupled jet streaks across the region as well with divergence aloft and broad, strong lift as wave becomes negatively tilted and swings into Great Lakes. To no surprise low level wind field is quite strong ahead of low advecting moisture into the system as it lifts northeast, with hints of strong isentropic lift and mid level frontogenetic banding. In fact, this feature could lead to high snowfall rates /2"+ per hour/ early Friday morning as forcing lifts north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 15z RAP just buries many locations. This model run is obviously going to nail it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: from midnight to 6am the RAP just hammers Eastern Iowa. 9.2" in Iowa City in a 6 hour period. See, this is very different from some other models that show the heaviest band through Waterloo, with only a few inches over southeast Iowa where the RAP is heaviest. I really want to see some model convergence. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, indianajohn said: Our local weather personaliteis are really keeping it conservative.. Hard to blame anyone for a conservative approach right now. Plenty of mixed signals. I'm hoping we can lay down a base of a few inches tomorrow morning, because even assuming a changeover to rain after, it shouldn't wipe it out as temps likely won't exceed the mid 30s. Then we add on afterward, build a solid sheet of snow, then get a rapid temp drop and turn the snow more fluffy to magnify the blowing/drifting aspect. That's the plan anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Well Jim Flowers increasing today. One thing for sure, most models show a sliver of heavy snow coming from omaha straight west into my county! Man what a storm, what a week!! This will be a snowstorm with temps in the single digits I mean come on?! I can't remember this happening since the december storms of 2000! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 Just noticed SPC has general thunder pretty far north. Let's do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 The RAP actually brings rain into far SE Iowa as 850s rise above 0. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 GFS and Euro are worlds apart on QPF. GFS at 3am is way stronger vs. the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 euro going nuts for nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Euro really increasing totals in Nebraska vs. 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 The Euro is not initializing well with temps in C.IA-- way off. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Euro with about 2" more in CR than the 00z run, but still is about the lowest end of guidance on snowfall totals. Just doesn't have the QPF here that other models are showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Euro at 6hrs for noon today temps vs actual temps -- never seen it that bad Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Euro is 10-15F off at 6 hours-- horrible. Might show a NW trend the Euro is not seeing. Just looking at things with reason. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Euro at 6hrs for noon today temps vs actual temps -- never seen it that bad Could be a sign that it could struggle with the WAA wing of snows 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 MPX bumped me up to 4-6" now. Nice trends! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Once again gnarly stuff from the Euro. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, The Snowman said: Once again gnarly stuff from the Euro. Euro gives me 1'. I don't trust it with it's bad initializing with surface temps. Wish I had access to upper air soundings and see if they match the 850/ 925 mb temps at 18Z -- I doubt it, can't totally discount past 12-18 hrs , but as Gosaints said, it's likely struggling with the WAA snows 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 SREF Mean with a nice shift south in E IA with the heavier totals. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 And now the Euro has me over 6". It will be interesting to see what MPX does with their afternoon update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 Gut feeling is that LOT upgrades me to a winter storm warning later (they certainly will farther north). They may not have the greatest confidence in warning criteria amounts here, but it should be close enough even in a worst case/least snowy scenario, plus factoring in the wind impact and what that may do with weighed down tree branches and then increasing blowing/drifting concerns later in the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Gut feeling is that LOT upgrades me to a winter storm warning later (they certainly will farther north). They may not have the greatest confidence in warning criteria amounts here, but it should be close enough even in a worst case/least snowy scenario, plus factoring in the wind impact and what that may do with weighed down tree branches and then increasing blowing/drifting concerns later in the storm. I am at the same latitude as you, just 25 miles west. Still concerned about being too warm especially after how the last storm went. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, metallica470 said: I am at the same latitude as you, just 25 miles west. Still concerned about being too warm especially after how the last storm went. I am up North in Gurnee and still worried with the warm temps North and off the Lake. I am not sure what to expect as this storm unfolds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, The Snowman said: Once again gnarly stuff from the Euro. Holy smokes that just buries me and most of Eastern Nebraska!!! We would be shut down for days around here if this verifies. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said: I am up North in Gurnee and still worried with the warm temps North and off the Lake. I am not sure what to expect as this storm unfolds If it wasn't for the warm lake, I would think you would have been north enough to be golden. Hopefully you are far enough inland that the lake doesn't impact you as much, but I think it's anyone's guess and will become a nowcast for those near the lake. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, metallica470 said: I am at the same latitude as you, just 25 miles west. Still concerned about being too warm especially after how the last storm went. Yeah, these marginal scenarios are always tricky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 I'm not sure how much we'll get... probably something in the 4-8 range. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, metallica470 said: If it wasn't for the warm lake, I would think you would have been north enough to be golden. Hopefully you are far enough inland that the lake doesn't impact you as much, but I think it's anyone's guess and will become a nowcast for those near the lake. It's a shame that it's even a factor at this point, but here we are on January 11 with the Crib at 41 and the mid-lake buoy at 42. Pretty remarkable for this time in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's a shame that it's even a factor at this point, but here we are on January 11 with the Crib at 41 and the mid-lake buoy at 42. Pretty remarkable for this time in the year. Very remarkable! What could have been with this storm if the water and temps were even just a little cooler. I didn't think I would miss the days we would be discussing ice coverage and how much of open water is available to provide lake enhancement in storms like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, metallica470 said: Very remarkable! What could have been with this storm if the water and temps were even just a little cooler. I didn't think I would miss the days we would be discussing ice coverage and how much of open water is available to provide lake enhancement in storms like this. If this storm had a proper arctic airmass (not coming in after) with the warmer than average lake temps, this could have been "the one" for Chicago. Or it would've at least had an excellent shot to be a top 3 storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, metallica470 said: Very remarkable! What could have been with this storm if the water and temps were even just a little cooler. I didn't think I would miss the days we would be discussing ice coverage and how much of open water is available to provide lake enhancement in storms like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Well. Don't k own who this guys is, but he has nailed the last 3 snow events so I'm going with it. Midwest weather on FB. I don't believe this includes Sunday lake stuff in MI 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Madtown said: Well. Don't k own who this guys is, but he has nailed the last 3 snow events so I'm going with it. Midwest weather on FB. I don't believe this includes Sunday lake stuff in MI My wife just sent me the same thing that someone at work sent her, and that this 17 year old kid who runs the site "has never been wrong" LOLOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If this storm had a proper arctic airmass (not coming in after) with the warmer than average lake temps, this could have been "the one" for Chicago. Or it would've at least had an excellent shot to be a top 3 storm. For this reason, it doesn’t hurt as much missing out on this storm. It’s not that “near perfect” set up as GHD-1 or the Super Bowl Blitz. There was another one I can’t recall the date. I remember vividly the NYE and New Year’s day long duration event and then backend LES in 13-14. I think we had 2 10”+ storms that same week! This storm will have certainly have the winds and then long duration cold spell that follows. I absolutely hated it when a beautiful snowstorm dumped a great snow pack and then melted off within a week! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Meanwhile, 18z HRRR is coming in further south vs. the 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 through 10am tomorrow the HRRR has 3" more in Iowa City vs. the 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 18z hrrr is excellent for omaha and fremont Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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