January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[jcwxguy]

Grids updated for me in Fremont 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Not the best continuity spanning across the warning area with the 2 counties in northwest Indiana left out.  I'm sure the LOT afternoon afd will be informative though and may shed light on the reasoning.

 

[hawkstwelve]

RDPS trend over the past four runs. It's remaining pretty consistent in it's solution overall for the past three runs. None of these crazy run-to-run swings like the NAM and HRRRRRR. Gives it at least a little more weight, IMO.

[bud2380]

DVN new graphic shows 8-12" for much of the area with 12"+ in far NE Iowa.

[bud2380]

Blizzard Warning just issued here! 

[East Dubzz]

Wow, 12+ inches and a Blizzard warning is the prediction here.. 

[jcwxguy]

Too bad oax didn't go with blizzard 

[bud2380]

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
303 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

IAZ040-051>053-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-ILZ015-016-
024>026-120545-
/O.NEW.KDVN.BZ.W.0001.240112T2300Z-240113T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KDVN.WC.A.0001.240114T0000Z-240116T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KDVN.WS.W.0002.240112T0300Z-240112T2300Z/
Buchanan-Benton-Linn-Jones-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-
Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Rock Island-Henry IL-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-
Including the cities of Independence, Vinton, Cedar Rapids,
Anamosa, Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport,
Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield,
Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, Moline, Rock Island,
Geneseo, Aledo, Oquawka, and Monmouth
303 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM CST FRIDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST
SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected with a
  period of mixed precipitation along and south of a line from
  Sterling, Illinois to Fairfield, Iowa. Total snow accumulations
  of 7 to 14 inches, highest north of Highway 30, and ice
  accumulations of a light glaze. Northeast winds gusting as high
  as 40 mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions
  expected. Northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the
  Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind
  chills as low as 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Illinois and
  east central, northeast and southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 9 PM this evening to
  5 PM CST Friday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 5 PM Friday to
  noon CST Saturday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from Saturday
  evening through Tuesday morning.

[bud2380]

[East Dubzz]

Actually, I guess Dubuque didn't get the Blizzard Warning. Interesting. Not supposed to be an windy over here? 

Now that I look.. I guess not. Though not too far off. Gusts of upper 30s tomorrow night instead of mid 40s for the other areas. 

[BMT]

Let's GOOOOOOOOO

[hawkstwelve]

Quite a few models show Minnehaha County, where Sioux Falls is located, being the dividing line between the heavier totals and the lesser totals. Depending on how things ultimately shake out it could be a situation where the NW corner of the county gets 1-2 inches and the SE corner of the county gets 5-6 inches. This is exactly what the latest RAP model shows - 1 inch in the NW of the county and 6 inches in the S/SE.

Another good example of this is Lincoln County just to my south, which starts literally across the road from my house, is under a Winter Storm Warning for 5-9 inches. I have a Winter Weather Advisory here for 2-6 inches. Luckily I am as far south in the county as you could possibly get.

Ultimately it's pretty clear that there is going to be a sharp gradient for snowfall totals here. I just hope I'm on the right side of it.

[metallica470]

Latest LOT snowfall map: 

[FV-Mike]

19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I think uiowa needs to cancel the men’s bball game tomorrow

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

I think uiowa needs to cancel the men’s bball game tomorrow

I know I have season tickets.  I'm only 20 miles away, but don't think I'll venture out in it regardless.  There won't be any fans there.  

[East Dubzz]

Just now, bud2380 said:

I know I have season tickets.  I'm only 20 miles away, but don't think I'll venture out in it regardless.  There won't be any fans there.  

Sounds like Nebraska is already en route, so that won't be an issue. Though I think refs getting to the game could potentially be a problem. 

[bud2380]

My point forecast still says 5-9" despite the blizzard warning saying 7-14"  WTG NWS.  

[The Snowman]

50 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

This makes little sense to me - essentially taking 10:1 maps and calling it a day. NWS Omaha expecting much higher ratios though, with their fresh AFD:

 

Quote

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Overall, the forecast remains on track for another strong winter storm to impact the region tonight through Friday. This will be the second winter storm with heavy snow this week. Changes with this forecast from the previous package include a slight shift upwards in our snowfall ranges by about an inch.

We are seeing snow develop already in northeast NE this afternoon, north of a line from Albion to Wayne, with visibility down to 1 mile at both Oneill and Yankton. We should see snow start to fill in across eastern NE through 6 pm, and southwest Iowa by 6-8 pm. The snow may come in waves when it begins and then finally fills in becoming moderate to heavy by 9pm-12am, which then continues overnight and into Friday morning. Northerly winds overnight range 15 to 30 mph. With the colder temperatures, we`re expecting higher snowfall ratios closer to 15 to 18 to 1, so the snow won`t be as heavy and wet as it was with this past system last Monday, and will blow around a lot easier too. The snow does linger into Friday morning, with the accumulating snow really tapering off Friday afternoon. With snow and blowing snow comes colder temperatures, and wind chill values are as cold as 15 to 20 below zero across eastern NE as well tonight and Friday morning, thus the existing winter storm warning and wind chill advisory will continue tonight and Friday. We feel that while near blizzard conditions are possible overnight and Friday especially in open areas, it might be hard to get the strict definition of 35 mph wind gusts and 1/4 mile visibility, but travel will still be extremely difficult especially in open areas on east/west roads with the blowing snow.

 

[NickH4NU]

5 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

I think uiowa needs to cancel the men’s bball game tomorrow

I need to see Nebraska go 14-3 though

[bud2380]

Just now, East Dubzz said:

Sounds like Nebraska is already en route, so that won't be an issue. Though I think refs getting to the game could potentially be a problem. 

I would hope for fan safety they cancel.  Iowa was once a couple hours before tip all ready to play Indiana in Bloomington when a game got canceled because a ceiling tile fell.  It was late in the season and couldn't have come at a worse time too.  Iowa ended up cramming the makeup game in and had to play 3 straight road games in one week and lost them all.  So they shouldn't feel bad about canceling on Nebraska tomorrow. 

[bud2380]

18z GFS...OMG! I'll never get back out of my house if this verifies.  LOL.  

[East Dubzz]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

My point forecast still says 5-9" despite the blizzard warning saying 7-14"  WTG NWS.  

Wonder if they need to update that? I noticed that as well. They have been kind of weird lately not matching up their point forecasts/graphics/warnings. 

The official warning for me says 7-14, though the graphic is pretty much 8-12+ area wide around me. Minor stuff, but a little coordination there would be nice haha

[The Snowman]

Also strange: if OAX (and most all models, for that matter) are correct in ratios landing somewhere between 15:1 and 18:1, why is NBM going with 8.8" of snow just north of Omaha from 0.71" QPF (ratio of just above 12:1)?

[bud2380]

Holy cripes this is almost 20" at my house.

 

[james1976]

Winter Weather Advisory up here. 4-7". I'll take it after what was looking like a complete miss. I'm only 1 county away from the warning.

[East Dubzz]

Man.. if the forecasts verifies.. would end up being one of the craziest weeks of snow I can ever remember. 

[The Snowman]

18z GFS continuing a lovely recent trend of strengthening QPF field in Nebraska and Iowa

[jcwxguy]

11 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

This makes little sense to me - essentially taking 10:1 maps and calling it a day. NWS Omaha expecting much higher ratios though, with their fresh AFD:

 

 

They are going by their graf model only 

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Man.. if the forecasts verifies.. would end up being one of the craziest weeks of snow I can ever remember. 

You could take the words "one of" out of it for me.   Never experienced anything like this in 3 days.  

[jcwxguy]

[The Snowman]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

They are going by their graf model only 

Well I guess if you're gonna commit to one model, you better commit to the bitter end lol

[Hawkeye]

lol at the GFS.  There is no way this verifies for southern Iowa.  I'm hoping we can get half of that.

[Hoosier]

Seeing some tendency to elongate the surface low a bit more as it heads toward the Lakes.  Whether this will actually occur or if we see a stronger/more consolidated center, no clue.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX AFD-

 It is worth noting that the
forecast snowfall totals from the upcoming storm combined with
those from the storm earlier this week will raise five-day
snowfall amounts from Monday through Friday of this week to near
all-time records, making this one of the snowiest weeks in history
for portions of the area.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

lol at the GFS.  There is no way this verifies for southern Iowa.  I'm hoping we can get half of that.

I'd like to will it into existence.

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seeing some tendency to elongate the surface low a bit more as it heads toward the Lakes.  Whether this will actually occur or if we see a stronger/more consolidated center, no clue.

The models that are elongating it farther west are the ones that dump more snow here, so I hope they are correct.

[shakjen]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

lol at the GFS.  There is no way this verifies for southern Iowa.  I'm hoping we can get half of that.

Do you have the map (into Illinois)

[FV-Mike]

Could someone post the 18Z GFS for points further East. Thanks!

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, FV-Mike said:

Could someone post the 18Z GFS for points further East. Thanks!

[hawkstwelve]

18 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Winter Weather Advisory up here. 4-7". I'll take it after what was looking like a complete miss. I'm only 1 county away from the warning.

This sounds oddly familiar...