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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's about done.  The radar looks good over me right now, but it's just a light flurry.  Ended up with about quarter inch.  Pretty disappointing when you consider this could be the best January Arctic blast in decades.

Still going here so far but will probably be done in the next hour. Better than nothing I suppose! Atleast it’ll also look like winter. 

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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's about done.  The radar looks good over me right now, but it's just a light flurry.  Ended up with about quarter inch.  Pretty disappointing when you consider this could be the best January Arctic blast in decades.

I think the ECMWF handled the south sound snow very well.   The radar looked like it was going to be way wrong but it factored in the dry air. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the ECMWF handled the south sound snow very well.   The radar looked like it was going to be way wrong but it factored in the dry air. 

Yeah looks like most places will end up with 0.2-0.5”. Little more further east. 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

Still looking like a fairly devastating event for Eugene/Springfield.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Blizzard777 Grand Master

Blizzard777

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Waited until my wife was asleep to open the bedroom window wide open. The air feels perfect. We’re also getting some sporadic gusts. Down to 26° in Everett.

Thank the good Lord!  I had a very brief southerly wind moments ago filling that void up north !   Always good to know why things occur.  Closure 

 

28*  winds 1-5 from the north 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like the warm nose gives us a little speckle of snot even up to Cowlitz County.

Must be this on Saturday afternoon?   Gets all the way up to my house.   Thankfully it will be dry.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t850-5190400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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RaleighHillsRunner Proficient

RaleighHillsRunner

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Delay, delay, delay, fizzle. Seen this movie before…

It’s happening - regardless of totals Saturday conditions shaping up to be unlike anything I’ve experienced here in the lowlands before. 🌬️ ❄️ 

Prepare Season 7 GIF by Game of Thrones

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

Decent amount of precip from the Euro but we waste some on sleet. 

Comparing the QPF on several other models, it looks like between 0.50 to 1.0 in QPF is a good bet for PDX. Probably not too much risk of getting completely missed anymore but the precip cutoff continues to be very sharp on all models on the north side of this, going from 0.50 or more to nothing in a very short distance...

I think the snow totals are pretty much going to come down to how well we can maintain an entirely frozen column or close to it.

I want to say 5-10 inches of snow should be doable with this.  I'm kind of betting that the WAA is probably a bit overdone but we'll see.

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qpf_048h-imp.us_nw.png

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

High temps Saturday through Monday.   Now 40 degrees on MLK day will feel warm! 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5190400 (4).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5276800 (5).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5363200 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Must be this on Saturday afternoon?   Gets all the way up to my house.   Thankfully it will be dry.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t850-5190400.png

Yep. Good news is the GFS and Euro are both less aggressive than the GEM with it.

Cold air damming locales around Portland stand a good chance of avoiding sleet, IMO.  I think Washington County will be the big winner.

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's about done.  The radar looks good over me right now, but it's just a light flurry.  Ended up with about quarter inch.  Pretty disappointing when you consider this could be the best January Arctic blast in decades.

Ya it's been a bunch of waiting and watching these models for basically no snow. I do think we will get some Saturday. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

Currently 23F here. I have to say this is probably the least impactful "big" arctic front that I can remember. To be fair I usually get almost no wind so the biggest impact is snow, but the very slow drop of temperatures without any wind or snow makes it feel like a normal cold winter day. Most people up here in Skagit went to work and when they got back if was a couple degrees colder than when they left in the morning so they probably didn't notice a thing.

Forecast up here is for 9F by morning. Based on the rate of temperature drop I just don't see it happening. Maybe mid teens, but I would be surprised if I get much colder than that. Tomorrow will probably over perform on high temperatures as well.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps Saturday through Monday.   Now 40 degrees on MLK day will feel warm! 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5190400 (4).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5276800 (5).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5363200 (2).png

Such a short weak event. December 2009 was longer duration I believe. But better than nothing, especially in a strong El Niño. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ya it's been a bunch of waiting and watching these models for basically no snow. I do think we will get some Saturday. 

I don't think there is much of a chance for snow on Saturday now.   Maybe a few flurries but we will have extremely dry air at the surface up here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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12 degrees in Bellingham and -6 on Sumas Mountain.  Wicked air mass.  I can't ever recall Bellingham having this cold of outflow with no snow cover.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
Just now, lowlandsnow said:

It's coming

1705471200-hi2fUIhauWg.png

Let’s make that a 955mb low!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Phishy Wx Grand Master

Phishy Wx

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Posted
6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BLI at 12.

GEG at 19 with Deer Park down to 13. Advection just starting to ramp up into the basin, maybe a little behind schedule out there.

yeah, its delayed, wonder if lack of snow cover is going to neuter this

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep. Good news is the GFS and Euro are both less aggressive than the GEM with it.

Cold air damming locales around Portland stand a good chance of avoiding sleet, IMO.  I think Washington County will be the big winner.

Yep, one of the few redeeming qualities of my spot being close to the eastern slopes of the Coast Range. 

What do you think about the fairly aggressive cutoff to the precip on the northern edge of this, looks a bit strange no? I feel it won't be quite that sharp in reality. 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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Posted
4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Such a short weak event. December 2009 was longer duration I believe. But better than nothing, especially in a strong El Niño. 

He didn't even include tomorrow, the coldest day for western WA. 

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