January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Meatyorologist]

Just enough northward movement from that OR low to increase mixing/high clouds at night, bot not enough to bring snow to north Seattle tomorrow.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Goddamn I'm hyped for tomorrow

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A midnight high of 35F. Oh well...we'll get 'em next time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG with a midnight high of 33F so they also have had just 1 sub freezing high since Jan 2017.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Do mesoscale models use radar data? If so, with the PDX radar down, will that affect them heavily?

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Do mesoscale models use radar data? If so, with the PDX radar down, will that affect them heavily?

It’s back up

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s back up

Ok nice just saw that!

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just enough northward movement from that OR low to increase mixing/high clouds at night, bot not enough to bring snow to north Seattle tomorrow.

This is the most weeniest post I'll make tonight. I'm truly happy for y'all in Portland and I really hope it's a crusher down there. IMO the warm nose is being overdone and it'll be a damn BLIZZARD in the metro.

Just sucks we won't get real deep cold or snow up here. Maybe we try for 13 and break the century record?

[Deweydog]

Omak ends up with a 1/-8 for the day. Kinda makes their 2/-2 from 12/21 look kinda silly.  

[DeepFriedEgg]

Seems to be coming down pretty good in Salem! The traffic cams that are working look Midwest-like!

[SnowySeeker50]

Temp continuing to drop slowly. Currently 14f

[RaleighHillsRunner]

12 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Goddamn I'm hyped for tomorrow

Same. Winds are howling now. 

[Cold Snap]

Ended up with a 25/12 day. Obliterates my coldest high and low temp of the winter so far. We will see how this day ends up here. Could be a bit colder.

[Perturbed Member]

SE of Salem

Looks pretty decent down there. 

[theRunner]

So essentially things moved north but Seattle is still off the table? 

 

[Parrot]

Does anyone know what the EPS said about mon-wed for Seattle?

[snow_wizard]

Stuck at 13.5 here for a while now.  Stampede Pass just dropped another degree so it might drop a little bit more.  Quite remarkable to see Lester down to 4.  Their elevation is about 1500, but they also have snow on the ground.

[Phishy Wx]

stuck at -7

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Omak ends up with a 1/-8 for the day. Kinda makes their 2/-2 from 12/21 look kinda silly.  

My cabin did a -12 -26. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Does anyone know what the EPS said about mon-wed for Seattle?

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Does anyone know what the EPS said about mon-wed for Seattle?

Ensemble mean is a bit colder on the 850s, some solidly cold members, and some snowy ones.

[Deweydog]

Looks pretty healthy…

Also, those clouds over Western Canada and Montana don’t seem to wanna move!

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

[SpaceRace22]

PDXers, do NOT look at the 6z NAM if you want to sleep peacefully tonight. Being 100% serious. Just go to bed. It will be needlessly upsetting and is probably just an outlier.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Storm is looking juicy out there.  

[DeepFriedEgg]

Need Wednesday system to trend south to nail Seattle and keep cold pool intact!!

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

PDXers, do NOT look at the 6z NAM if you want to sleep peacefully tonight. Being 100% serious. Just go to bed. It will be needlessly upsetting and is probably just an outlier.

SLEET STORM

[snow_wizard]

Looks like some places in NE WA are threatening -30 tonight.  Flat out cold!

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS

We also struggle to see how the warm nose will blast right into the PDX
metro Saturday with such strong cold advection occurring from an
already well-established, strong, and deep cold air mass. If there
was one thing that surprised us the most over the past 12 hours, it`s
how easily and how fast the cold air moved in, both from the north
and east. This seems to be a signal that the cold air is stronger and
deeper than modeled, and that the incoming low will help maintain a
supply of cold air from the east (so long as it moves onshore south
of Portland`s latitude). All this would point more toward a snow
scenario than a sleet scenario for the PDX metro, with sleet more
widespread in the Tualatin Valley and the Willamette Valley south of
about Tualatin or Tigard. Somewhere further to the south in the
Willamette Valley the cold air will be shallow enough for freezing
rain rather than sleet, and there could be a lot of it.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

PDX NWS

We also struggle to see how the warm nose will blast right into the PDX
metro Saturday with such strong cold advection occurring from an
already well-established, strong, and deep cold air mass. If there
was one thing that surprised us the most over the past 12 hours, it`s
how easily and how fast the cold air moved in, both from the north
and east. This seems to be a signal that the cold air is stronger and
deeper than modeled, and that the incoming low will help maintain a
supply of cold air from the east (so long as it moves onshore south
of Portland`s latitude). All this would point more toward a snow
scenario than a sleet scenario for the PDX metro, with sleet more
widespread in the Tualatin Valley and the Willamette Valley south of
about Tualatin or Tigard. Somewhere further to the south in the
Willamette Valley the cold air will be shallow enough for freezing
rain rather than sleet, and there could be a lot of it.

Yes please!!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

PDXers, do NOT look at the 6z NAM if you want to sleep peacefully tonight. Being 100% serious. Just go to bed. It will be needlessly upsetting and is probably just an outlier.

Seems really hard to believe.

[SimplySmoothWX]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

PDX NWS

We also struggle to see how the warm nose will blast right into the PDX
metro Saturday with such strong cold advection occurring from an
already well-established, strong, and deep cold air mass. If there
was one thing that surprised us the most over the past 12 hours, it`s
how easily and how fast the cold air moved in, both from the north
and east. This seems to be a signal that the cold air is stronger and
deeper than modeled, and that the incoming low will help maintain a
supply of cold air from the east (so long as it moves onshore south
of Portland`s latitude). All this would point more toward a snow
scenario than a sleet scenario for the PDX metro, with sleet more
widespread in the Tualatin Valley and the Willamette Valley south of
about Tualatin or Tigard. Somewhere further to the south in the
Willamette Valley the cold air will be shallow enough for freezing
rain rather than sleet, and there could be a lot of it.

I can rest peacefully now

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

PDXers, do NOT look at the 6z NAM if you want to sleep peacefully tonight. Being 100% serious. Just go to bed. It will be needlessly upsetting and is probably just an outlier.

NAM says enjoy your sleet storm 

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

PDX NWS

We also struggle to see how the warm nose will blast right into the PDX
metro Saturday with such strong cold advection occurring from an
already well-established, strong, and deep cold air mass. If there
was one thing that surprised us the most over the past 12 hours, it`s
how easily and how fast the cold air moved in, both from the north
and east. This seems to be a signal that the cold air is stronger and
deeper than modeled, and that the incoming low will help maintain a
supply of cold air from the east (so long as it moves onshore south
of Portland`s latitude). All this would point more toward a snow
scenario than a sleet scenario for the PDX metro, with sleet more
widespread in the Tualatin Valley and the Willamette Valley south of
about Tualatin or Tigard. Somewhere further to the south in the
Willamette Valley the cold air will be shallow enough for freezing
rain rather than sleet, and there could be a lot of it.

I consciously knew this, but oh man did my emotional weenie brain need to hear this right now after these 6z runs. The RRFS is also showing the warm nose into Clark County by 6am tomorrow, which would surely be a death sentence for all snow south of Kelso. I just don't see that actually happening through, luckily. So good to hear the professionals confirm that this isn't just pure wish casting from me though, haha. Thank you so much for posting this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like some places in NE WA are threatening -30 tonight.  Flat out cold!

-26 at the station next to my cabin 

 1/4 mile away

 

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I consciously knew this, but oh man did my emotional weenie brain need to hear this right now after these 6z runs. The RRFS is also showing the warm nose into Clark County by 6am tomorrow, which would surely be a death sentence for all snow south of Kelso. I just don't see that actually happening through, luckily. So good to hear the professionals confirm that this isn't just pure wish casting from me though, haha. Thank you so much for posting this.

6z runs are just going to make the 8 inches of powder we get even sweeter!!

[SpaceRace22]

Another sign that the 6z NAM has absolutely no idea what's going on, it thought PDX would drop from 20 to 15 from 10pm to 11pm, and fall to 13 by 1am, yet in reality it barely inched down from 23 to 21, and is still at 21 as of almost 1am. It clearly does not know how to handle the cold air advection in this setup, so there's no reason to believe that it's onto something with that bizarre WAA scenario it's showing with a +8C jump in 850mb temps over the next few hours at PDX.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I consciously knew this, but oh man did my emotional weenie brain need to hear this right now after these 6z runs. The RRFS is also showing the warm nose into Clark County by 6am tomorrow, which would surely be a death sentence for all snow south of Kelso. I just don't see that actually happening through, luckily. So good to hear the professionals confirm that this isn't just pure wish casting from me though, haha. Thank you so much for posting this.

Not to warm nose their enthusiasm, but their rationale is a little iffy. The CAA is pretty much on schedule and mainly below about 3,000 feet, give or take. Doesn’t have much of an effect on the 850mb level where things are expected to get a bit dicey. 

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like some places in NE WA are threatening -30 tonight.  Flat out cold!

if you have snow cover its going low. if not its still cold but not record level

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Not to warm nose their enthusiasm, but their rationale is a little iffy. The CAA is pretty much on schedule and mainly below about 3,000 feet, give or take. Doesn’t have much of an effect on the 850mb level where things are expected to get a bit dicey. 

You might be right, but my read on what they were saying is that the air mass as a whole is more robust than modeled, including the 850mb levels over us right now. I understood their statement to be that it isn't that the CAA at the lower levels will overrule the warm nose, but rather that the existing cold we have at the mid levels is deeper than anticipated and won't be kicked into the next dimension as easily as some of the models seem to want to do. Could just be huffing pure copium here though, I dunno.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You might be right, but my read on what they were saying is that the air mass as a whole is more robust than modeled, including the 850mb levels over us right now. I understood their statement to be that it isn't that the CAA at the lower levels will overrule the warm nose, but rather that the existing cold we have at the mid levels is deeper than anticipated and won't be kicked into the next dimension as easily as some of the models seem to want to do. Could just be huffing pure copium here though, I dunno.

Yeah, how do models even get a read on current 850mb temps? IR satellite or something?