January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Down to 27.4 after a high of 33.1 today. 

It’s coming. 

Pink sky at night rgem snow storm in sight.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice group of lows closer to the Colombia river now 

I am not sure there will actually be a low center... and even if there is it will probably be hard to find.

 

[GHweatherChris]

So lame!

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure there will actually be a low center... if there is then it will probably be hard to find.

 

The lows is looking rather baggy

[snow_wizard]

You just have to tip your hat to this cold wave.  It's quite rare for the foothills area to have this cold of an east wind with the 850s above freezing.  Still a boat load of cold air in the lower levels.

[TT-SEA]

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Better. Certainly favored farther north. Just realized I really can’t use Boeing field meteogram for Bothell for this event.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Chance of one inch or more went up. 10-20 percent chance now 20-30.

90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Any further shift south and Seattle is on the table again.

[FroYoBro]

Temperature is dropping pretty fast as the sun sets. Already back down to 23. Sky is warning us of the storm that is coming tomorrow! 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Any further shift south and Seattle is on the table again.

Hopefully it comes in even weaker. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY.

I would be happy with an inch! More than I got from the Arctic air coming in. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Better. Certainly favored farther north.

Quick math says about a 25% chance of a couple inches or more in Seattle 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Paine field trend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY.

This says 0% chance of 3 inches of snow here. We will see. 

[Olive1010]

I think you guys up there could get some mixed flakes, but mostly freezing rain.

[Hawksfan2008]

HRRR further south 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

I think you guys up there could get some mixed flakes, but mostly freezing rain.

If it were only this easy, pick one model and make a forecast.  

[Olive1010]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If it were only this easy, pick one model and make a forecast.  

I'm not making a definite assumption, it was only a joke 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

HRRR further south 

About a ocean shores landing looks possible,  but more of a open wave of low pressure so not sure if that will do the job for Seattle.  Probably the trickiest forecast I have seen in a long time.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY.

High five. Vancouver - Spokane special

[Phishy Wx]

what's the NBM saying good peoples?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Jan 27th

 

Doesn't quite get there as the block is to skinny, but it does drop a chilly trough through for maybe some foothills snow. 

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what's the NBM saying good peoples?

Looks good for you over in Spokane.

[TT-SEA]

Using HRRR as the example but the ECMWF looks the same.  

There is a deformation zone on the north side of the broad area of low pressure.   I am not sure the exact point of landfall matters in this case.   It will not be a tightly wound system like the one on Saturday. 

More than the exact low center... the location of that deformation zone is there where the heavy snow will fall.   

[Minion]

Looks good for snow up here tomorrow night! Could be a big snow storm 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Temp already down to 27. 

[MossMan]

26.3 

DP 20.

Wonder if I will have one more night in the teens? 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, MossMan said:

26.3 

DP 20.

Wonder if I will have one more night in the teens? 

low of 23.2 i'd guess

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

Here is a reddit thread that had many people that were stuck in the traffic jam posting about it. It just sounds like pure misery. Chains are required on I-5 from Cottage Grove north.

 

I-5 south of Eugene is so winding and hilly. It would be an absolute nightmare for a big rig on ice! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

Looks like we'll end up with a 29/21 spread today. Sucks balls for those without power. It is tough to scour out low level cold in the WV. I'm sure the next storm tomorrow won't totally suck at all.

I just keep thinking about 2004 when the valley was supposed to scour out very quickly and it was a tediously slow process with the southerlies taking days longer than expected to break through. Winds never really switched offshore, but gradients stayed dead and it just rained all day for days with the ice slowly melting, dense fog and temps creeping up taking days to hit the 40s... And this was way down the valley with little gorge influence. 

[TT-SEA]

Projected radar loop... again using the HRRR but it lines up really well with ECMWF.    This gives us a good idea how this will play out.   The initial band is almost guaranteed to freezing rain all the way up to Bellingham.   Then its going to turn to snow in that deformation zone... wherever that ends up being located.    For the Seattle area there is likely going to be an extended break where the precip is scattered.   The backwash and c-zone is where areas south of Bellingham could get into the snow as well and that is what we are seeing with the southward trend today. 

[KingstonWX]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Projected radar loop... again using the HRRR but it lines up really well with ECMWF.    This gives us a good idea how this will play out.   The initial band is almost guaranteed to freezing rain all the way up to Bellingham.   Then its going to turn to snow in that deformation zone... wherever that ends up being located.    For the Seattle area there is likely going to be an extended break where the precip is scattered.   The backwash and c-zone is where areas south of Bellingham could get into the snow as well and that is what we are seeing with the southward trend today. 

That looks like the precip holds off til after dark too for Seattle northward, or right around there, which provides another wrinkle. 

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly the HRRR also shows the temperature just above freezing tomorrow night in King County which eliminates freezing rain.   Not the same down in Portland and southward.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

That looks like the precip holds off til after dark too for Seattle northward, or right around there, which provides another wrinkle. 

Precip has been shown to start tomorrow evening around 7 or 8 p.m. in Seattle for many runs now.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam just went south about 300 miles

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip has been shown to start tomorrow evening around 7 or 8 p.m. in Seattle for many runs now.  

I hadn't been watching the exact timelines, but figured it would come in during the warmest part of the afternoon just to spite me. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nam just went south about 300 miles

Don't think so.   But chasing this low center is like chasing a ghost.   Its sooooo weak. 

This is pretty close to where the 12Z run was at the same time... just even weaker.  

[Perturbance]

Checking in from Corvallis.  Have been below freezing since Friday evening.  We've got ice but not as bad as the Springfield area. 25.2° currently, with a 20.8° / 29.5° range today. First sunny day since this started.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Perturbance said:

Checking in from Corvallis.  Have been below freezing since Friday evening.  We've got ice but not as bad as the Springfield area. 25.2° currently, with a 20.8° / 29.5° range today. First sunny day since this started.

Wow... those pics are incredible!   Seriously awesome.