January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nam just went south about 300 miles

It looks farther south early on. Then it becomes this ridiculously rotund low pressure that drifts northeast.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Or looks farther south. Then it becomes this ridiculously rotund low pressure.

Basically no change from previous runs.    Its all about the deformation zone on the north side of the broad area of low pressure... not the low center.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't think so.   But chasing this low center is like chasing a ghost.   Its sooooo weak. 

This is pretty close to where the 12Z run was at the same time... just even weaker.  

I guess it depends on the frame. Strange.

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

It looks farther south early on. Then it becomes this ridiculously rotund low pressure.

It's a conspiracy. The weather cabal doesn't want it to snow Seattle northward so they will just keep the low rotating in circles offshore for a couple days until it does. D**n HAARP. 

[Phil]

God I missed this.  Just hit 3”. I think we can reach 5-6”.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I guess it depends on the frame. Strange.

Jumps around... loops shows a clear path to NW WA coast.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Basically no change from previous runs.    Its all about the deformation zone on the north side of the broad area of low pressure... not the low center.  

3z Wednesday it is definitely south a good chunk but like you say result is the same 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Current temps as of 6pm.

Current temps as of 6pm. Newport and Florence below freezing down south on the Oregon Coast. Some locations in PDX Metro are already in the teens. Looks like ice is on the way for the majority of us here west of the Cascades tomorrow.

[GHweatherChris]

Things just aren't the same anymore, just 5 years ago a low coming in like tomorrow would almost assuredly drop 2" of snow here with offshore flow, this year, nope.... Portland effed up a major snowstorm a couple of days ago....  JUST LAME!!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

3z Wednesday it is definitely south a good chunk but like you say result is the same 

Its just way too warm for snow at the 925mb level outside of the deformation zone.  

[van city]

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its just way too warm for snow at the 925mb level outside of the deformation zone.  

I know 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, van city said:

From Bellingham north and west is absolutely golden.  

[TT-SEA]

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

God I missed this.  Just hit 3”. I think we can reach 5-6”.

Congrats Phil! Enjoy it 

[the_convergence_zone]

If you showed me this morning’s KUIL sounding without context I would question whether we even had an arctic outbreak recently. 

It’s a little colder inland but the forecast soundings show the problem — there’s barely any cold air left (south of Whatcom) and the event is going to be highly dependent on wet bulb cooling to get any frozen precipitation at all. The dew point is still really low in Seattle so that’s the main reason for at least some optimism. 

It’s brutal but I still think this is a non event south of Everett (maybe some initial mixed precip) and I don’t think any of these details like low track really matter for that part of the forecast. As @TT-SEA notes, snow will be confined to that deformation band. 
 

Little details like onset of precip right after the diurnal max really matter here, it’s too bad it isn’t arriving in the early morning hours. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good thing it’s the NAM. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good thing it’s the NAM. 

But the NAM lines up almost perfectly with the ECMWF... so it might be a little more reasonable than usual right now.  

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

But the NAM lines up almost perfectly with the ECMWF... so it might be a little more reasonable than usual right now.  

I’m going to go ahead and downvote this. 

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Correction!

[TT-SEA]

Per the NAM... 925mb temps over Seattle are colder now than they will be for this entire event.     By time the cold air comes back on Wednesday night the precip is mostly gone.  

[Groundhog]

I’m in the supposed sweet spot. I ain’t hollering “he shoots he scores” until Thursday evening if and only if there’s >4” from this storm. Plenty of time for this to soil the sheets.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m going to go ahead and downvote this. 

It’s always been a low chance we pull this off especially for me in Bothell. All we can hope for is another great RGEm run and eps improvement 

[RCola]

Late month looks more interesting. Hopefully Seattle will get something then. 

It's been a rough stretch for the city since 2021. No shortage of wonderful patterns the past three years, but none of the storms have hit the sweet spot for downtown Seattle to get more than an icy inch. 

[Dave]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just keep thinking about 2004 when the valley was supposed to scour out very quickly and it was a tediously slow process with the southerlies taking days longer than expected to break through. Winds never really switched offshore, but gradients stayed dead and it just rained all day for days with the ice slowly melting, dense fog and temps creeping up taking days to hit the 40s... And this was way down the valley with little gorge influence. 

I missed 2004. I was in the bay area for the holidays and I-5 was closed for like 3 days due to the extreme storm, so we had to stay for a few extra days. There was about 4-5 feet of snow in the Weed area. When I finally got back to Eugene, there was only a couple of inches of slop left. No idea how bad it actually got down here.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s always been a low chance we pull this off especially for me in Bothell. All we can hope for is another great RGEm run and eps improvement 

Yes... need to dig into the RGEM and see what is going on there.   Maybe its onto something.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

If you showed me this morning’s KUIL sounding without context I would question whether we even had an arctic outbreak recently. 

It’s a little colder inland but the forecast soundings show the problem — there’s barely any cold air left (south of Whatcom) and the event is going to be highly dependent on wet bulb cooling to get any frozen precipitation at all. The dew point is still really low in Seattle so that’s the main reason for at least some optimism. 

It’s brutal but I still think this is a non event south of Everett (maybe some initial mixed precip) and I don’t think any of these details like low track really matter for that part of the forecast. As @TT-SEA notes, snow will be confined to that deformation band. 
 

Little details like onset of precip right after the diurnal max really matter here, it’s too bad it isn’t arriving in the early morning hours. 

Be interesting to see the sounding in the Puget Sound because the one from forks won't tell you what will happen inland. Low humidity is where my hope is and if we can get the heavier precip focused further south. Crazy how many different things can happen  to effect this.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... need to dig into the RGEM and see what is going on there.   Maybe its onto something.  

Easy to see right away... it has deformation zone way south of other models.  

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... need to dig into the RGEM and see what is going on there.   Maybe its onto something.  

Euro is the same at 37 hrs. Almost

[Phil]

MJO update from NOAA.

Phase-7 is warm for the CONUS, but as they mention, that warm pattern is likely to discontinuously retrograde and bring about another cold/blocky pattern next month, as MJO transits through phase 8/phase 1.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The rgem remains a more organized low, that is one of the biggest differences. 

[Dave]

There are a few stars out. First ones I've seen in probably about a week.

[TacomaWx]

Tim right now 

[bainbridgekid]

While we’re all grasping at straws, anyone know when the 0z RGEM runs? I don’t normally check it. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

MJO update from NOAA.

Phase-7 is warm for the CONUS, but as they mention, that warm pattern is likely to discontinuously retrograde and bring about another cold/blocky pattern next month, as MJO transits through phase 8/phase 1.

I don’t know what all of that means but I am going with a 2019 redux!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Be interesting to see the sounding in the Puget Sound because the one from forks won't tell you what will happen inland. Low humidity is where my hope is and if we can get the heavier precip focused further south. Crazy how many different things can happen  to effect this.

There is just no way the precip with the initial band tomorrow night can be snow.   Low dewpoints at the surface are what will cause regular rain to become freezing rain.   Snow is entirely dependent on bringing colder air aloft down on Wednesday.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You just have to tip your hat to this cold wave.  It's quite rare for the foothills area to have this cold of an east wind with the 850s above freezing.  Still a boat load of cold air in the lower levels.

Dude, my high was 26 today. 

[MossMan]

25.8 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m actually hoping the SE Willamette Valley mixes out quickly tomorrow. It’ll illustrate the difference between here and the EUG airport while minimizing the ice concerns.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Current temps as of 6pm.

Current temps as of 6pm. Newport and Florence below freezing down south on the Oregon Coast. Some locations in PDX Metro are already in the teens. Looks like ice is on the way for the majority of us here west of the Cascades tomorrow.

Down to 20 here. Notice some cold air bleeding into the Umpqua basin. That 33 at Roseburg comes with N winds.