January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 19th century was full of insane weather extremes that would put anything in the last century to shame. At least out this way.

The derecho that tore thru DC during the war of 1812 (Aug 1814) isn’t even most extreme event of that decade, let alone the century.

That's what just blows my mind about the media these days.  They make it sound like the world is ending when nothing has happened that is too impressive by 19th century or even 1930s standards.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think we hit 60 before Feb 2019

Was quite warm in midish January! 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the first third of Feb is getting a chilly and dry vibe right now.  A below normal Feb in any incarnation would be very impressive with a major Nino going.  

 

 

Could have something to do with PDO still deep in the negatives. I don’t know.

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think we hit 60 before Feb 2019

The science is settled  

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

The science is settled  

Anecdotal evidence is the best evidence right?

[snow_wizard]

Just read the details about that cold front.  Pretty D**n wild.  That shows how amplified regimes bring the most interesting weather by far.  Right now we seem to have entered a pretty amplified regime.  I hope that lasts for a while.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Anecdotal evidence is the best evidence right?

Is there another kind that I’m not aware of?

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Could have something to do with PDO still deep in the negatives. I don’t know.

I love the fact the -PDO managed to hold together through the Nino.  We should be set for a profound minus PDO next winter.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Could have something to do with PDO still deep in the negatives. I don’t know.

In this case it could well be MJO 7 doing it's thing.  Just wish we could avoid the three day torch coming up.  Just no way for that to happen now.

[Slushy Inch]

Cliff sure loves to write about the water storage.https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/water-resources-looks-good-over-western.html?m=1

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I love the fact the -PDO managed to hold together through the Nino.  We should be set for a profound minus PDO next winter.

Summers have been so cold... this -PDO regime has been terrible.

[Hawksfan2008]

It’s coming…

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This is getting close to being really good.

Great EURO run! That’s cold enough for snow down to sea level if there’s moisture.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice reload attempt on the control.

Blocking setting up right close to our sweet spot. Here we go again!

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

It’s coming…

Lock it in

[Cascadia_Wx]

EPS charts look pretty promising. Just got to get through the next nasty 3-4 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

EPS charts look pretty promising. Just got to get through the next nasty 3-4 days.

It's nice to see the mean stay on the bottom side of average once the calendar flips. I can also so, I don't think we've busted the January curse just yet. We just had a nice couple of days. 

[Dave]

324 years ago today, the last Cascadia_Wx earthquake hit the PNW. It was probably devastating.

[Slushy Inch]

Druncle looking like a move towards euro.

[Randyc321]

16 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

It’s coming…

Too much blue.  Throw it back.  Need more pepto.

[Slushy Inch]

Very marginal pscz snow. 174 hours out

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Dave said:

324 years ago today, the last Cascadia_Wx earthquake hit the PNW. It was probably devastating.

Only if it lead to fog, drizzle or freezing rain.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Only if it lead to fog, drizzle or freezing rain.

Records from back then are hard to come by, but I'm pretty sure there was a 67 burger.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Records from back then are hard to come by, but I'm pretty sure there was a 67 burger.

Let’s change natural disaster to winter blues busting miracle in that case.

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Could have something to do with PDO still deep in the negatives. I don’t know.

It has nothing to do with the PDO.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It has nothing to do with the PDO.

Does PDO matter at all? I rarely see it mentioned

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Summers have been so cold... this -PDO regime has been terrible.

The PDO has been negative because of how warm NPAC SSTs have been. It’s nothing more than a low frequency echo of previous weather patterns.

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Great EURO run! That’s cold enough for snow down to sea level if there’s moisture.

EURO control is basically the GFS on a good day

[Phil]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Does PDO matter at all? I rarely see it mentioned

It’s irrelevant as a pattern driver.

The PMM is another story, of course.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The PDO has been negative because of how warm NPAC SSTs have been. It’s nothing more than a low frequency echo of previous weather patterns.

I know... its a silly notion that it has predictive powers.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Does PDO matter at all? I rarely see it mentioned

The AGDI (Atlantic Global Dominance Index) is really the only one of any consequence. It’s been in its positive phase for much of geologic history 

[Phishy Wx]

absolutely gorgeous sunny 51 out.  first 50 burger of the year IMBY.  love it, going to the brewery I think and sit on the deck for the rest of the workday.  boss is on the east coast and gone for the day.    

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle looking like a move towards euro.

This run is more-niño like. Lower heights over the NPAC/GOA.

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

The AGDI (Atlantic Global Dominance Index) is really the only one of any consequence. It’s been in its positive phase for much of geologic history 

AMO is just as irrelevant. Facts are a b*tch sometimes.

[Phishy Wx]

sorry you have a tummy ache Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

AMO is just as irrelevant. Facts are a b*tch sometimes.

NW Maryland has the best skiing anywhere outside of the Alps. Fact.

[Phishy Wx]

Hey Phil, how's it looking in Philly next week?

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

NW Maryland has the best skiing anywhere outside of the Alps. Fact.

Wisp is not for the weak

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know... it’s a silly notion that it has predictive powers.   

But there is some degree of atmospheric coupling to the PMM. It’s distinct from the PDO and should be factored into any seasonal scale forecast.

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/PMM.html

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

This run is more-niño like. Lower heights over the NPAC/GOA.

At least there is a Goa ridge at all. I’m more interested in trough location at this point.