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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is the storm total so far? looks like about 2 feet!

Yep we’re at about 2 feet for this storm total. Had 2 feet last week as well. Changeover to rain tomorrow or so will make things…. Sloppy

"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are really grasping at straws right now. But that's OK.

Sometimes it's our only option. I still think you and Tim will see something GREAT

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Haha i forgot about those, I have worked on them way back in the day hahaha

 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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41 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

That blue needs to be over King County

It will trend north…

To northern Snohomish Co. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Sunset is almost to 5 p.m. now in Seattle.  Assume Portland is already there.  That is a gain of about 40 minutes already on the sunset time and now we have almost 10 months until the sunset is before 5 p.m. again.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunset is almost to 5 p.m. now in Seattle.  Assume Portland is already there.  That is a gain of about 40 minutes already on the sunset time and now we have almost 10 months until the sunset is before 5 p.m. again.   👍

Gorge influence has kept sun angles a bit lower here so far.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like next Sunday and Monday are going to be on 60 degree watch in the western lowlands. Barf 

My wife and her BFF are gonna be loving it down in Canyonville. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

After the pineapples, the Euro is cold enough for snow. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-6875200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-t850-6875200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f-6875200.png

Wow! This is outstanding. Though low temps around 30 aren't super exciting. That's a nice maritime airmass showing up in that period on many of the models. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Looks like the Portland area is doing OK on precip. All of the El Nino favored areas on the other hand. 

787a8a87fc19c18e0831a172c22430dc304577f5d421c7629aae5ebb5bbc2254.jpg

Yeah, we are in pretty good shape here. November was a little below normal, but December and January have righted the ship. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow! This is outstanding. Though low temps around 30 aren't super exciting. That's a nice maritime airmass showing up in that period on many of the models. 

27 here! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

27 here! 

Probably too cold to snow then. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

 

Ohhhh if I could back in time and snag a couple of those 1987 Yugos!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A graphic stating that Fairbanks Airport (PAFA) has officially hit -40 degrees Fahrenheit for the first time since January 8th, 2022. This was a streak of 743 days; the longest in our recorded history which dates back to 1930.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Still some milder members, but there is definitely quite a bit of ensemble improvement during that first week of February. A couple magic 8 ballz in there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like we get a cool maritime trough the end of next week. Not super exciting, but better than nothing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 hours ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it’s getting tougher and tougher to find mechanics that still work on the older stuff. Cars, boats, jetskis, etc. kind of sad really. 

My dad has a 1965 Chevelle and 1966 Olds 442. As of now I’m planning on keeping the 442 and selling the Chevelle. He had someone completely rebuild the 327 in it and he had all of the body work and paint done as well. His last step was the interior. I don’t think I will get to that and will probably sell as is, but I need to figure out how to even price it. 
The 442 is complete, I went with him to buy it back in the early 1990’s and we did most of the resto work ourselves except for the engine rebuild as that was professionally done. Has a 455 big block in it with the tri-power. It’s give you whiplash fast! 

IMG_2268.jpeg

IMG_2269.jpeg

IMG_2270.jpeg

Beautiful cars!!

Family (cousins) owned an Oldsmobile dealership in Georgia, so that's what a lot of our family drove.  The part of the family that owned the dealership of course had 442s.  My branch of the family favored the Cutlass with the 350 Rocket engine.  One car that was eventually given to my brother was a....72 or 73? (it had 4 headlights) and had the 350 rocket with the 4 barrel carb and "ran like a raped ape"

My grandmother's last car was a late 70's/early 80's Delta 88.  She took me to a doctor's appointment in Atlanta when I was about 6 or 7, and she turned in front of a little Datsun B210 or B510 that was absolutely hauling a**.  We had the turn arrow so it was the other driver's fault.  The crash spun us around 270 degrees, I was in the back seat right where she hit (passenger side rear wheel/quarter panel).  The  radiator of the Datsun was pretty much pushed back to the base of the windshield. 

That Delta 88 was built like a friggen tank. It dented the back door, quarter panel and the hubcap.  I'm sure the rear axle was knocked askew as it took the brunt of the impact forces, but regardless we drove home and my grandmother got the car fixed.

Too bad they don't make cars like that any more.

 

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Gem wasn’t as interesting as this mornings run.

Seems to be in pretty good agreement with the GFS though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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31 minutes ago, GoldenEars said:

I remember someone asking if they had known anyone who called ZR "silver thaw." I was going through a PDF on flooding events from 1808-1949 and saw it mentioned. 

7a366619629b2ba0a2978986b7bf7efa.png.e62045fb4131b355253eed04c59ab9e8.png

That was me, and it's a pretty commonly-used phrase in northern Whatcom County.

I think Phil mentioned that calling it a "thaw" is a bit odd, given that it's basically the opposite, which is fair. However, locally anyway, ZR events seem to be most likely to occur at the back end of over-running events, meaning their arrival tends to coincide with the transition from snowfall to snowmelt. Not sure if that's the real reason locals call it that.....but it works for me.

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9 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm the only shop around this area that still works on the older stuff. Crazy.

When I lived in Oregon in the late 90's, I had a '69 bug and I unfortunately nuked the motor.  The old motor burned oil, and for the most part I was pretty good about staying on top of it.  A flickering oil light when I was going around a freeway cloverleaf on my drive home from work was my "last warning."  One night I realized I hadn't added oil in a while, and I hadn't seen the light flicker.  As I was noodling that out in my brain, realizing "oh crap I'm probably really low on oil" the motor let go.  I had knocked the wire to the pressure sensor off.

There was only one shop in all of Oregon that still built aircooled VW engines, and it was in Eugene.  I think I paid $600-700 for a rebuilt motor, with a $200 core charge.  I did the swap myself with the help of a friend.  Man I miss that car!

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Pretty dull pattern nationally in the long range. 

gfs_T2ma_namer_58.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I have a 2016 Golf R that i'd love to have an independent mechanic look at. The options near me are dreadful. 

D**n, I wish I had known, I was pretty heavy into VW up until last year and turn my own wrenches.  Had the whole VAGCOM reader set up and everything.  I gave all of my VW specific tools, VAGCOM set up, etc to the buyer of my Jetta Sportwagen when I sold it last summer. 

Golf R.....hmmm....folks have been able to successfully transplant the Golf R AWD system into TDI Jetta Sportwagens.  So you had the extra room of the wagon, the torque and power of the TDI (especially if it was deleted and tuned) with the AWD.  Traction was my biggest complaint with that car, I could chirp the tires in 3rd, sometimes even in 4th.  If I got on it on wet pavement I would spin the tires through 4th gear.  That car desperately needed AWD!

Ah well, @MR.SNOWMIZER will take good care of you!!!

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.47" for the day, 3.9" for the month, and that includes whatever snow/ice piled up on my rain gauge and went through it while melting.  Warm rain today pretty much killed off the snow, the only thing left is piles left over from shoveled driveways and sidewalks.

Starting to hear rumblings about raising snow levels and pineapple express next week.  Really hope that doesn't happen, the ground is so saturated from the snow melt up here.  I was walking around the back yard with my dog this afternoon and pools of water would squeeze out of the ground wherever I stepped.  I personally should be fine, but other folks like @North_County, not so much.

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58 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

.47" for the day, 3.9" for the month, and that includes whatever snow/ice piled up on my rain gauge and went through it while melting.  Warm rain today pretty much killed off the snow, the only thing left is piles left over from shoveled driveways and sidewalks.

Starting to hear rumblings about raising snow levels and pineapple express next week.  Really hope that doesn't happen, the ground is so saturated from the snow melt up here.  I was walking around the back yard with my dog this afternoon and pools of water would squeeze out of the ground wherever I stepped.  I personally should be fine, but other folks like @North_County, not so much.

I have my eye on it. Hoping a gradual warm-up will "clear the deck" a bit, so to speak, in advance of the main storm. The target of the AR has shifted around the past several days, and I suspect it will continue to do so. In 2021 (the BIG flood), it seemed like it locked on Whatcom County early and never wavered.

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I've seen much worse.

cold24.jpg

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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54/42 day here. Partly to mostly cloudy and dry, with lots of sunbreaks through early afternoon. Mildest day of the month/year so far. You have to go all the way back to the great blowtorch day of 12/29/23 to find a day warmer.

Interestingly the low of 42 was set this evening. Light easterlies have kicked in this evening and brought cooler temps back in. The nearly full moon looks great out there through the clouds.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Some upper 30s showing up this evening now.  At least it's a little bit chilly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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