February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Iceresistance]

GOOD LORD

[Beltrami Island]

25 minutes ago, chescowxman said:

Below is a comparison of adjusted (blue) vs raw non adjusted (orange) annual average temperatures -  notice how much scarier the warming appears with adjustments? The reality is there has been very little warming over the last 50 years - at least here in Chester County PA

If you haven't read it yet, read State of Fear by Michael Chrichton... 20 years old now, I should reread it and see how it holds up but it has quite a few examples that look like the red line for us cities up until 2000.

[Black Hole]

29 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

GOOD LORD

There is going to be some big time variation in the totals with this one. I assume a few areas with heavier rates really will get some good snow totals, but slightly lighter rates could mean a lot of areas get little to no accumulation. In general, I think most areas will not accumulate more than 2" for central/eastern OK and none (for me at least) would not surprise me. With that said, there is a chance if its just a little cooler and heavier we could get a good one. At least we got a shot! 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS is showing something we've had very little of so far this season: the polar jet.

It ain't much, but it's enough to kickoff multiple systems through the Northern tier of the country. 

[hawkstwelve]

Ensembles are responding in kind with increased chances of 1+ inches over the next 10 days.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS is trending the bullseye for ME!

[Black Hole]

18z HRRR

[Andie]

56*. 
We’ve had light rain until noon. 80.% of more later. Not the rain I’d hoped for but will take it.  

53* tomorrow with a 90% chance of more rain.  

[Clinton]

Little bit of a north trend this afternoon with snowfall Monday morning.  Accumulating snow is showing up close to home.

[Tom]

Enjoying the light show to my east  from Mother Nature.  First thunderstorm of the season.  A SWS was issued for pea sized hail but not much wind.  Really spectacular far reaching lighting that hangs up in the clouds in the darkness of night.  

[Stacsh]

12 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You're definitely not crazy and that's an unbelievably damning series of finds, including your previous post on the topic. 

I've looked at COOP data files and stuff in my area going back to the turn of the century which have since been altered or digitally whited out on the old PDF doc scans. It's really disappointing, but I'm not surprised. There's no limit to what these folks will do to enforce what they want believed.

Those adjustments would look a lot like the global temperature charts nowadays. 

You guys are hilarious.  Glad you did “your research to already confirm your political bias”.  You found it! Well done.  I’ll trust the real scientists 

[Black Hole]

No real change on the CAMs this evening. For my area snow begins between 8 PM and midnight on most models and continues heavy all night. Some models keep me at 34-35F with just a slushy inch or less while some drop temps to 32-33F and accumulate way more than that.

I think at this point saying 1-3" of accumulation here is probably the most likely, but theoretically, I could see it being as low as nothing or as high as maybe 5". 

Some 00z HRRR maps:

[Andie]

Future radar has something in store for us around 3:30 am. Low 50’s.  

[Andie]

Thunder woke everyone up. Radar is spot on to line of storms.  
51*. We’ll see rain all morning.  Nice. 

[Tom]

Happy Superbowl Sunday!  It's game day and I hope that you all can enjoy the biggest sports day of the year.  The weather will be FINALLY cooperating here in the Valley of the Sun where it will be living up to its name.  I ventured out yesterday to the Princess Fairmont next to the TPC Scottsdale and it was a great experience.  Great energy and vibe for sure.  Met a group of girls that where from KC!  Shout out to the KC fans out there!  They actually were staying the night and flying to Vegas and had seats at the Superbowl Game.  You know me, I had to ask....of course, I asked them if they knew Gary Lezak and they absolutely did!  LOL, we started chatting about the weather, cycles, spiritual awakening...pretty interesting conversations....anyway, I'm pretty stoked for the game today and looking forward to a full day of sunshine.  

[Tom]

In the medium range, did the GFS/ICON sniff this out???  Euro playing catch up it appears....This pattern really mimics a La Nina pattern as the real deal Arctic Air straddles the heartland and PAC systems traverse the belly of the beast.

0z Euro...this will be a higher ratio snow with Arctic Air in Toe...

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 38/29 there was no rain/snowfall and there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is now up to 33/19 the record high for the date and the month at Grand Rapids is 69 in 1999. The record low of -21 was set in 1899. The most rainfall of 0.79” was in 1998 the most snow fall of 8.8” was in 1985 The most on the ground was 22” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 45/19.

[Tom]

The LRC has dialed up several periods during the cycle which have produced "The Omega Block"...depending on where it has set up, it either was a dagger to the pattern...OR...more importantly, for Winter Wx Fans...it has produced Real Winter...get your winter gear ready, bc it appears likely that we are going to cycle through the coldest part of the LRC and the Alaskan Ridge is firing up!

Do Re Me, I see you Mr. PV!!!   

 

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for February 11

1899: Muskegon records their all-time record low of 30 below zero. Grand Rapids falls to 21 below and Lansing 22 below.

1999: A surge of warm air ahead of a cold front brings all-time record-high February temperatures to much of Lower Michigan. February records include 67 degrees at Muskegon and 69 degrees at both Grand Rapids and Lansing. Battle Creek hits 72 degrees.

On February 11, 1999, the temperature rose to 70 degrees in Detroit. This is the earliest 70 degree day ever recorded in the city of Detroit.

1895: The low temperature was 11 degrees below zero at Moline, Illinois, marking the last of 16 consecutive days on which the low temperature was at or below zero. During the first 11 days of February, Moline’s highest temperature was only 13 degrees above zero. Their current average high temperature for early February is in the lower 30s.

1983:  Called the “Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm,” this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall up to 25 inches fell at Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall amount of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours.

[Clinton]

Strange weather pattern ahead early next week as the Ozarks have a WWA for up to 5 inches of snow while I bask in the upper 40s and 50s.  GO Chiefs!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
252 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

KSZ097-101-MOZ068>071-077>083-088>096-101>103-112200-
/O.NEW.KSGF.WW.Y.0007.240212T0800Z-240213T0000Z/
Crawford-Cherokee-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-
Dallas-Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-
Newton-Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
252 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas and central, east central,
  south central, and southwest Missouri.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow heavy snow band will likely develop
  somewhere within the advisory area with localized amounts higher
  than 5 inches possible within this narrow band.

 

[MinnesotaSnow]

Southern plains getting more snow this season then Minneapolis was not on my bingo card. 

[gimmesnow]

14 minutes ago, MinnesotaSnow said:

Southern plains getting more snow this season then Minneapolis was not on my bingo card. 

Yeah, I went on a ski trip to the UP in Michigan mid January, and there was more snow in SE Wisconsin than the UP. Lots of really weird stuff going on. Almost looks like the Snowbowl by Tom is some of the best snow in the country for skiing right now. Really weird winter, I blame the Nino.

[chescowxman]

While today will be almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday it will still be almost 10 degrees above average for the date. Cloudy today and tomorrow with rain arriving tomorrow after evening rush hour. The rain should mix with and change to snow toward rush hour on Tuesday AM with maybe a small slushy accumulation across some of the higher spots of Chester and Berks counties. Most of the rest of the week will feature more seasonable temps with Wednesday being the chilliest day with highs in the low to mid 30's.

Records for today: High 64 (1960) / Low -13 (1899) / Precipitation 1.68" (1983) / Snow 21.6" (1983)

[Northland09]

39 minutes ago, MinnesotaSnow said:

Southern plains getting more snow this season then Minneapolis was not on my bingo card. 

Yeah, this has been the worst winter here I have yet to see. Well, I think any of us has yet to see! How did we go from one of the snowiest winters on record to at this point least on record? Talk about extremes! I mean, I don't mind not having to shovel or plow, but a little something would be nice. And I feel so bad for those in our industry who rely on plowing to get them through the winter when they can't do anything else. I know it's only February and typically I would say we should be getting slammed here in February and March, but I just don't see it really happening this year.

[gimmesnow]

Weather always seems to balance itself out. I wouldn't be surprised if next winter was absolutely nuts. I'm not expecting it, but wouldn't be surprised.

1 hour ago, Northland09 said:

Yeah, this has been the worst winter here I have yet to see. Well, I think any of us has yet to see! How did we go from one of the snowiest winters on record to at this point least on record? Talk about extremes! I mean, I don't mind not having to shovel or plow, but a little something would be nice. And I feel so bad for those in our industry who rely on plowing to get them through the winter when they can't do anything else. I know it's only February and typically I would say we should be getting slammed here in February and March, but I just don't see it really happening this year.

It's really bad for ski resorts. I posted earlier about Whitecap resort, the owner claims he's already lost $700k this season alone and honestly the resort is awfully dated, they sure don't have $700k to lose.

[Hoosier]

En fuego

Of course we won't finish the month with departures like this.

[james1976]

MPX talking potential light snow event midweek with temps falling back to normal afterward. Yeah I think we're heading back into the "cold" phase of the pattern but nothing overly cold.

[OttumwaSnomow]

After  a much needed respite here in SE Iowa, things are looking wintry again  soon.

[Beltrami Island]

2 hours ago, Northland09 said:

Yeah, this has been the worst winter here I have yet to see. Well, I think any of us has yet to see! How did we go from one of the snowiest winters on record to at this point least on record? Talk about extremes! I mean, I don't mind not having to shovel or plow, but a little something would be nice. And I feel so bad for those in our industry who rely on plowing to get them through the winter when they can't do anything else. I know it's only February and typically I would say we should be getting slammed here in February and March, but I just don't see it really happening this year.

For msp cwa 96-97 to 97-98 contrast is similar to this year and last. Enso states compare pretty well I think there as well.

Just don't want to follow the trend through 98-99 and 99-00 because that was 3 clunkers in a row for Minnesota and only 00-01 from 97-98 through 02-03 was not below avg snow.

 

[Andie]

Looks like Texas is sitting this winter out.  
Guess I’ll concentrate on rain. 

[Minny_Weather]

Looking like March before I get another feasible chance at plowable snow. This is such a waste of a pattern.

At least I had it better in January than the Twin Cities in the sense that it actually looked like winter for 2 weeks. Absolutely brutal situation down there.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice trends here over the past 48 hours. Most ensembles now show an 80+ percent chance at 1+ inches of snow here by the end of the week, mainly focused around systems on Wednesday and Friday. We also look to drop back to near or below normal finally. Winter is making a comeback!

[MinnesotaSnow]

12 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Yeah, I went on a ski trip to the UP in Michigan mid January, and there was more snow in SE Wisconsin than the UP. Lots of really weird stuff going on. Almost looks like the Snowbowl by Tom is some of the best snow in the country for skiing right now. Really weird winter, I blame the Nino.

This is a classic strong nino setup for Minnesota being exasperated by the screw-zone dome sitting right over the state. 

[Grizzcoat]

Friday system --- would put DSM at full seasonal norms with nearly half of FEB and  all of March left. (Everyone knows March is going to be colder than FEB )

[Grizzcoat]

CMC-

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 38/28 there was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out only 6% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 33/19 the record high of 55 was set in 1984 the record low of -23 was set in 1899. The most rainfall of 1.70” fell in 1938 the most snow fall of 5.1” fell in 2019. The most snow on the ground was 21” in 2014. Last  year the H/L was 48/28.

It looks like the official overnight low was 21 that is the coldest it has been this February so far. The low here in MBY was 20 and the current reading here in 24 with broken clouds.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for February 12

1967: Temperatures plummet to 24 below zero at Lansing and 16 below at Grand Rapids as arctic high pressure moves across Lower Michigan.

 2019, the Tri-Cities and Thumb regions saw 3 to 6 inches of snow while areas south of Metro Detroit saw persistent freezing rain. Tens of thousands of residents lost power during this storm. Note the Tri-cities in Michigan are Bay City, Saginaw and Midland. 

1784,  Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 – 1784.

1899, The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee Florida

[Black Hole]

Most of the snow fell while I was asleep so I didn't get to enjoy it really, but 1.3" at my place when I went out the door. At my office we only officially recorded 0.1" so it mostly verified on the lower end of expectations. A few patchy locations away from Tulsa were as high as 4". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Black Hole said:

Most of the snow fell while I was asleep so I didn't get to enjoy it really, but 1.3" at my place when I went out the door. At my office we only officially recorded 0.1" so it mostly verified on the lower end of expectations. A few patchy locations away from Tulsa were as high as 4". 

Nice! How did they do up in Rogers County? Oologah/Claremore? 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice! How did they do up in Rogers County? Oologah/Claremore? 

Reports are still spotty and none in those cities yet, but I see 1" in Collinsville, 1" in Vinita, and 4" in Coffeyville in southern KS. So probably 1-2" in most of that area.