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February 2024 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Say it ain't so, but here we go...the last month of MET Winter....is Ol' Man Winter making a comeback???  How fast time fly's as it feels like it was yesterday I was sitting here in AZ tracking the Christmas Day Blizzard.  Well, wouldn't you know, that part of the LRC is showing up for the early opening days of FEB.  This month is when you typically see a colder month during most El Nino winters and that may very well being play out for most of the SUB. 

Let's dive deeper into the particulars...

What players can we expect to see....well, we have The LRC, Canadian and High Lat Blocking along with a Stout STJ that is firing up in Ernest.  I'm really digging the set up for 4 corners region that'll likely shift east into the Central Plains/MW with all the Blocking BLOSSOMING over S Canada.  My personal expectations were for the models to increase the blocking, but to the magnitude they are showing now is just mind blowing.  Remember, it wasn't long ago the GFS in the LR was showing hard cutters up into the Upper MW.  Now, suddenly, the shift south for the target period around FEB 4th/5th is showing up.  CO LOW??  Bowling Ball??  Let's Freaking Go!

0z GEFS are signaling my thoughts...

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2.gifI don't know about you but this is just beautiful....Classic set up for a CO Low...Hello Omega Block??  Let's see if the colder trends win out bc this is not like its later in MAR or APR where your begging for cold air.  Hope to see the KC peeps and @Clintonin the mix with this one.

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0z EPS...

eps_mslpaNorm_namer_35.png

 

 

3 days ago...

eps_mslpaNorm_namer_47.png

 

4 days ago...there was NO model that saw the amount of Blocking over S Canada...fast forward to today's runs, you see why I'm getting pretty stoke to see a classic CO Low....

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eps_mslpaNorm_namer_51.png

 

 

 

BUT wait, there's more...how about we dial up a Superbowl Weekend Blitz????   I know that is way out in Lala Land...but the LRC suggests a Big Ticket storm and the ensembles are sniffing it out.  IMHO, some peeps on here that were getting hit will continue to get hit but I do see a possibility of the storm tracking setting up a bit more south this time by the 10th-12th.  Ya'll ready??

 

 

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12z GEFS temp trends last 12 runs...this could end up a marginal set up but the power of the storm to generate its own cold air along with stronger Canadian HP could very well trend snowier for the Plains/S MW...this is for the Feb 3rd-5th storm....

 

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Looks the place to be in the new pattern will be upstate NY into E Canada. Could be historic there.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Winter go bye bye for the upper Midwest for the first parts of February.  Then we are in the final stretches.  Safe to safe winter was a 2 week winter this year.  Will we still get winter weather? Yes.  But few and far between.  

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BN for February tempwise to begin the month, but dry, unless a storm develops outta nowhere, (2 days at 40F or slightly higher next week, then temps fall as a strong Canadian high builds in from Canada). Temps do remain BN if not way BN as we get deeper in the month. Hopefully, this month can get me to at least near average snowfall by the time we call it a wrap and we welcome spring. Even March can help provide the goods, but by mid March (or sometimes even April, which can do the trick), the mode is pretty much gone by then, until next October again and into November.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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On 1/27/2024 at 9:56 AM, Tom said:

BUT wait, there's more...how about we dial up a Superbowl Weekend Blitz???? 

What would be more fitting for this winter than a KC vs Detroit SB?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Genuinely sorry for a lot of my silence this season. Been great to check in aside from my snow events ever so often and check everything out, though.

The warmth closing out January and opening this month looks pretty stout but I'm still leaning on another last punch of winter as we get towards the end of it. 

The continued -PDO, (in opposition to what has really been a much more strong, eastward and expansive El Niño than I had anticipated) is an amazing check-down or balance. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Absolutely zero blocking to be found. At least Alaska is seeing extreme cold. 

Yeah- a month ago there were many more clear signals that a serious pattern change was going to start around the 8th of Jan. So much so that I even shared my thoughts that this was going to happen with my non weather Facebook crowd. NO way this time by Feb 10th unless things drastically change.  The only model I've seen hint at change is the Euro 360 HR Control and it has been trending more mild of late.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It took the MJO moving pretty much through all the cold phases to give much of the lower 48 about 2 weeks worth of arctic air mass.  Looks like it is going to have to do the same thing (lag time) if arctic air is going to get deep into the country and have staying power the second half of February 

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The first week of the month looks mostly quiet for winter potential. A lot of us should get a good rain Friday-Sunday though. I'd say the 8th-10th may open the door for some snow in the northern Plains at least.

 

Model guidance is finally looking better in the big picture as we enter the 10th-15th of Feb as a classical +PNA ridge sets up along the west coast, with lower heights across the Plains into southern Canada. This would be a good pattern to send the cold south. Presumable somebody would be getting some snow here:
cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-7782400.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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6 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

it time to start a season snow total futility record watch for places in the UP?   

The record least snowfall amount at Marquette (only going back to 1963) is 95.2" in 1972/73. 81.3" at Houghton in 1930/31. A reported 48.0" in 1911/12 at Munising. At the Sault 65.5" in 1960/61. 

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Gonna be a really short snowboard season this year. Just gonna make some local trips and see if I can make Indy Pass worth it. Already lost December, January was great, looks like Feb is a bust. A lot of these hills are in big trouble already, very small base. Going to see a lot of very early closes this year.

I think most hills are writing this year off as a loss. A lot are already really low on base, not enough to make it to end of feb, and there's zero hope for good snowblowing weather before President's Day. PD is the last weekend for them to make a lot of money. They are already struggling this year, Christmas break was rain and warmth, MLKJr weekend was sub zero, now PD will have no snow.

Sad to be entering February and hoping models give us 30s instead of 50s.

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Well at least we have a good chance of rain. Just no cold air around. What a waste of alot of moisture. 

“Ensembles highlight good agreement for precipitation impacting south central Nebraska and north central Kansas Friday night through Saturday night. Precipitation chances have been increased as a result. Today`s operational models suggest a more northern track, possibly bringing more rain than we might think. This will have to be watched for the potential of a more significant early February rain event than first thought.”

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If February is worth anything in the Ohio Valley, it'll be my first one to feature any real snowfall. Not to say I haven't had a wet one though, Feb 2022 did feature some isolated flooding in the CWA.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Up to a few days ago models were retrograding a big northeast US upper low and pulling in some colder air from that direction, but they've dropped that idea.  Now the latest model runs are trending from mild to blow torch.  The Euro has us getting into the 50s several times over the next ten days.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Up to a few days ago models were retrograding a big northeast US upper low and pulling in some colder air from that direction, but they've dropped that idea.  Now the latest model runs are trending from mild to blow torch.  The Euro has us getting well into the 50s several times over the next ten days.

Good, if it’s not gonna snow, let’s bring on spring!

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Upper 30’s to low 40’s for the next ten days.  And the sun may come out which would boost those temps as well after the loss of the snowpack.  Sure doesn’t feel like the dead of winter.  Extended thaw apparently.   Feels like November 

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Interesting tidbit from the Nutrien AG guy video- models really lost clarity right before last Arctic Outbreak and snowy weather in the PLains.May we be going through something similar  again?

image.png.fed2508b7d38a05604a436d32d356049.pngimage.thumb.png.02a4387c0f6d2005cf7c7144d825e32d.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Interesting tidbit from the Nutrien AG guy video- models really lost clarity right before last Arctic Outbreak and snowy weather in the PLains.May we be going through something similar  again?

image.png.fed2508b7d38a05604a436d32d356049.pngimage.thumb.png.02a4387c0f6d2005cf7c7144d825e32d.png

It's too bad the CO LOW is going to be a wasted storm but it does appear the models are starting to show some arctic air to come back into the pattern around the 8th or so for the Upper MW.  The Euro Weeklies for the 2nd run in a row are showing an amplified Phase 8 by the 14th/15th....end of MET Winter Rally???

EMON.png

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Some consistency??  CFSv2 weeklies suggest Phase 8 by the same timeframe...better late than never I guess...

NCFS.png

 

Finally, the GEFS ext. also saying all systems Go for a Phase 8 MJO!  Let's see how this all plays out...I'm really eye balling the Super Bowl weekend wx pattern.  Maybe we'll be tracking a couple systems during that week and building up the excitement for the Big Football weekend and some Snowstorms!

GMON.png

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Need the MJO to get out of it's mini stall in phase 7 and head into 8 and preferably -- 1 and kick this doldrum pattern aside.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Sure hope it changes sooner rather than later. With the way the extended looks, we are aiming for breaking the record of earliest close for Alpine Valley for the season. Previous best was valentines day. If today's long range forecast verifies, we can beat it and be done by the 14th.

I am gonna snowboard the places I want to this season in the next week or two and plan on going West end of Feb. I don't think there will be any snow on ski hills by valentines in SE Wisconsin. Hopefully it can at least pick up around Snowriver and Big Powderhorn end of Feb so I can get some snowboarding in.

EDIT: if you are in Wisconsin or Illinois and plan on doing some skiing or boarding locally I strongly suggest you do it sooner rather than later. AV is usually the first to open and the last to close.

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