February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

Happy Groundhog Day to those that celebrate! No shadow this year so spring is around the corner....or maybe not! Some light rain overnight with County totals including East Nantmeal 0.13" / Atglen 0.11" / Chester Springs 0.14" / Glenmoore 0.14" / Devault 0.11" / West Chester 0.12" / London Grove 0.11" and Kennett Square 0.09", Looks like some great winter weather on tap for much of the upcoming week with sunny skies and seasonably chilly but not cold temps. A nice break after all the drearies!

Records for today: High 60 (1967) / Low 6 below (1918) / Precipitation 1.69" (1897) / Snow 8.5" (1897)

[MIKEKC]

Another rain storm  is on its way for KS and MO. KC looks to see somewhere between .25 and 1 inch of rain which is a lot for early FEB. We are already way above average since DEC. 1st. We have received 8-13 inches of snow across the city so far. 

For now, its Spring! Very warm, temps in the 60's this week...Hoping that turns around here towards the middle and end of the month with some cold and snow. I'm not worried about the storm systems as there have been plenty in this pattern and the Dec. 25th to Jan. 20th part of the pattern is ramping up again. 

Let's see how all this cycles back through. Let's finish strong winter! I'll take one more 3 week stretch like  the January run any time.  

BTW, Lezak says our best shot at another run will be Feb. 18th through March 10th. 

[Beltrami Island]

50 minutes ago, westMJim said:

 

1996: An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower’s annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36°, Osage, IA: -34°, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32° and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31°. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45° and -38°, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53°. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34° for its coldest temperature in 45 years. 

 

A few random facts I've picked up about the about the Tower, MN -60 reading.  The snow depth at the site was 44" meaning the reading was taken way lower than the standard 5 feet above the ground, biasing the reading low.  The actual reading was -59.5, if normal rounding rules are applied a 5 should be rounded up the next largest integer, well for a -59.5 the next largest integer is -59 not -60.  But -60 sounds better and was accepted.  The thermometer at the typical cold spot in that area, Embarrass, broke during the night, it can be assumed based on past and subsequent readings then that Embarrass was probably colder.  Also in only 6 days Tower warmed to +48f for a 108 degree swing in 6 days. 

The 44" snow depth is absolutely bonkers as well.  Tower is far away from Lake Superior so it has no lake enhancement, it is also is relatively flat having no geographic orthographic lift to aid snowfall.  The 44" snow depth is driven purely by synoptic scale weather. 

One more weird fact, I was a kid at the time and lived closer to the twin cities than northern Minnesota.  But, my dad was on a snowmobile trip staying about 30-40 miles from Tower that weekend.  There really wasn't much riding to be done, just getting the snowmobiles started was a task.  Only carbureted sleds would even start, the first generation fuel injected snowmobiles of that time would not start at all.  

 

[tStacsh]

59 minutes ago, Niko said:

Big warm-up coming next week. My area could potentially hit 50F. Still some large snow piles around. Great thing is that sunshine will be returning by tomorrow (ahhhh, some Vitamin D). Temps remain AB until further notice. 

Now this is my kind of mid to late winter.  It definitely can get cold and snowy in late February and early March, but by then it doesn't last long.   I'm going to enjoy the sun this weekend.  It's been almost 2 weeks.  

[Tom]

Yesterday, it was the 3rd day in a row that PHX hit a high of 81F!  It's not often you get temps to max out in the low 80's in the winter...is 81 the lucky number?  Last night around 7pm the valley was blessed with quite the rainfall as my area yet again was the bullseye (1.30 of RN).  The east valley got hit big time while PHX had about 0.53" of welcomed rain.  What a turnaround after such a dry Autumn.  The blocking and STJ really fired up around here and hopefully it can continue late into the Spring.  

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Another rain storm  is on its way for KS and MO. KC looks to see somewhere between .25 and 1 inch of rain which is a lot for early FEB. We are already way above average since DEC. 1st. We have received 8-13 inches of snow across the city so far. 

For now, its Spring! Very warm, temps in the 60's this week...Hoping that turns around here towards the middle and end of the month with some cold and snow. I'm not worried about the storm systems as there have been plenty in this pattern and the Dec. 25th to Jan. 20th part of the pattern is ramping up again. 

Let's see how all this cycles back through. Let's finish strong winter! I'll take one more 3 week stretch like  the January run any time.  

BTW, Lezak says our best shot at another run will be Feb. 18th through March 10th. 

Ya, I fully anticipate a strong finish to winter for the Heartland and into the East Coast.  The JMA weeklies from yesterday pretty much suggest this also.

 

Week 2...

 

Temp & Precip...

Its running a little warm bc its covering next weekend's blow torch but around the 13th or so I think it gets colder.

 

Week 3-4...

 

Temp & Precip...The GL"s should really fire up in this pattern...

 

[Black Hole]

I'm exactly at 11" for the water year so far, which is just slightly above average. We will probably get 1-1.5" here with the coming storm cycle, so moisture wise we are in good shape down here. 

[Black Hole]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ya, I fully anticipate a strong finish to winter for the Heartland and into the East Coast.  The JMA weeklies from yesterday pretty much suggest this also.

 

Week 2...

 

Temp & Precip...

Its running a little warm bc its covering next weekend's blow torch but around the 13th or so I think it gets colder.

 

Week 3-4...

 

Temp & Precip...The GL"s should really fire up in this pattern...

 

The window has been pushed back a little, but I think Gary's timing that was mentioned above is about what I would say right now. Around the 18th or so and onwards we should at least see a return to colder weather and snow for some. No reason to panic just yet! 

[Grizzcoat]

55 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

A few random facts I've picked up about the about the Tower, MN -60 reading.  The snow depth at the site was 44" meaning the reading was taken way lower than the standard 5 feet above the ground, biasing the reading low.  The actual reading was -59.5, if normal rounding rules are applied a 5 should be rounded up the next largest integer, well for a -59.5 the next largest integer is -59 not -60.  But -60 sounds better and was accepted.  The thermometer at the typical cold spot in that area, Embarrass, broke during the night, it can be assumed based on past and subsequent readings then that Embarrass was probably colder.  Also in only 6 days Tower warmed to +48f for a 108 degree swing in 6 days. 

The 44" snow depth is absolutely bonkers as well.  Tower is far away from Lake Superior so it has no lake enhancement, it is also is relatively flat having no geographic orthographic lift to aid snowfall.  The 44" snow depth is driven purely by synoptic scale weather. 

One more weird fact, I was a kid at the time and lived closer to the twin cities than northern Minnesota.  But, my dad was on a snowmobile trip staying about 30-40 miles from Tower that weekend.  There really wasn't much riding to be done, just getting the snowmobiles started was a task.  Only carbureted sleds would even start, the first generation fuel injected snowmobiles of that time would not start at all.  

 

I believe Tower was -60F two mornings in a row.

Also- some winter campers slept overnight one of those mornings in a swamp near Embarrass. They reported -70F on a thermometer. Not sure what kind but the story is true.

I was living in New Brighton at the time and had -34F on a wired thermometer. That's D**n cold for a relatively close suburb of the UHI of MSP.

[Beltrami Island]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I believe was Tower was -60F two mornings in a row.

Also- some winter campers took slept overnight one of those mornings in a swamp. They reported -70F on a thermometer. Not sure what kind but the story is true.

I was living in New Brighton at the time and had -34F on a wired thermometer. That's D**n cold for a relatively close suburb of the UHI.

-58 and -60 according to this...  

I am skeptical of any measurement of -70 with a handheld thermometer but absolutely believe -70 or lower is possible.  NE Minnesota extending up into Ontario has so many little pothole boxed canyon type backwater/swamps (if that makes sense) where under the right conditions cold air just continuously flows down too them like a river connecting a series of lakes, each one colder than the last. 

[Grizzcoat]

11 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

-58 and -60 according to this...  

I am skeptical of any measurement of -70 with a handheld thermometer but absolutely believe -70 or lower is possible.  NE Minnesota extending up into Ontario has so many little pothole boxed canyon type backwater/swamps (if that makes sense) where under the right conditions cold air just continuously flows down too them like a river connecting a series of lakes, each one colder than the last. 

Totally agree on those pot hole spots you mentioned. A relative new Coop site is Cotton,MN just N of Cloquet on 33. In a spruce swamp.  I haven't checked this year because it's just hasn't been that cold and they many no longer be reporting, but a few years back they were significantly colder than classic spots. I believe -54 or something like that. Who knows what they wouldve been in 1996. 

Jan of 1994 is another one that gets overshadowed by Feb 1996. It was overall much colder. I believe Crookston had a avg temp of -6F for the entire month. Places in E ND were even colder.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Now this is my kind of mid to late winter.  It definitely can get cold and snowy in late February and early March, but by then it doesn't last long.   I'm going to enjoy the sun this weekend.  It's been almost 2 weeks.  

Yes, I am mostly looking forward towards the sunshine this weekend as well. Tbh, I could use a break from the cold and snow. January was indeed a very active month in terms of cold and snow. Averaged AN in snowfall and not sure how that happened during a strong nino, but definitely not complaining on that part.

 

[Niko]

Pattern change coming for the 2nd part of February as it will turn much colder and snowier for some parts of the country. The EC stands a good chance as well. February tends to be their snowiest month of the winter season. Right now, March looks quite cold and potentially snowy, which could last through the end of the month, b4 winter says good bye. 

[Iceresistance]

The CONUS is still being flooded with Pacific Air, this is the type of airmass that is drier than normal and tends to torch. 

[MIKEKC]

Two storms forecasted on the latest GFS and CMC heading into Super Bowl weekend, some cold air to tap. These will likely be marginal temp events but maybe it jump starts us back into a wild 2nd half of FEB and early March!!

[Iceresistance]

Multiple Tornadoes in Texas, this is the 2nd one earlier today
 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Unbelievable amounts around here for February. 

 

[westMJim]

As we now have flipped the calendar to February and the last month of meteorological winter it is time to look at some averages and extremes for the month.  The average number of hours of daylight start out at 9hr 56min on the 1^st end up at 11hr 12min on the 29^th.  The average H/L starts out at 30.8 on the 1^st and by the 28^th it is up to 37.8. The average low starts out at 17.5 on the 1^st and is up to 22.4 on the 28^th. The record highest reading is 69 set on February 11^th 1999. It has reached 60 or better in 14 years in February the last time was in 2018 when it reached 63 on February 20^th in February 2017 it reached 66 on the 22^nd. The record low of -24 was set on February 14^th 1899.  Last year the highest was 54 on the 14^th and the lowest was 5 on the 3^rd.  The average mean for February is 26.6 the warmest February’s at Grand Rapids are 2017 with a mean of 34.7 the coldest was 2015 with a mean of 13.3. Last year the mean was 31.0 it was the 13^th warmest February on record at Grand Rapids. The wettest total precipitation is 5.77” in 1898 in more recent times 1938 had 5.30” Last year had 4.10” good for the 8^th wettest. The driest year is 1902 with 0.21” in more recent times 1969 only had 0.33”.  The average snowfall for February at Grand Rapids is 17.” The most snowfall is 41.6” in 2008 the least snowfall of 0.5” was in 1998. Last year there was 5.4” of snowfall good for the 20 lowest snowfall. The most snowfall in calendar day is 11.3” on February 3^rd 2007 that event started on the 1^st and the total 4 day event had 20.4” of total snow fall. The so called GHD snowstorm had a calendar one day snowfall amount of 11.1” on the 2^nd the 2 day event has a total of 17.2” of snowfall. Note the 2007 event had more snowfall then the 2011 event.

 

[westMJim]

Will have to see how the next 10 days play out but, but if the forecast is correct this could be the warmest start to any February since 1991. In 1991 after a below average day on the 1^st there were 9 days in a row of above average temperatures. Highs reached the 50's on 3 days in a row.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/27 that 27 was the coldest low since January 22^nd and it was also the 1^st time it has gotten below 31 in that same time. There was no rain/snow yesterday as it was the sunniest day in a long time with 45% of possible sunshine. For this winter season Grand Rapids is now at 34.5” of snowfall that is -17.7” on the season. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 54 was set in 1991 and the record low of -17 was set in 1996. The record snowfall of 11.3” fell in 2007 the most on the ground was 19” in 2014 and 2011. Last year the H/L was 15/5 and there was 5” of snow on the ground.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Though the rain this weekend is wonderful and will pay dividends to agriculture in the coming months, the what if keeps coming to my mind if the temp was in the 20’s. We’d be having a nice snowstorm right now. Oh well. 

[Tom]

FLG reported a 2-day total of 9.8" of powder the past couple days...I'm waiting for the updated totals for Sunrise Ski resort to my East as they easily scored the most snow.  This coming week is going to be the best winter stretch for the mountains of Arizona.  I'm fully expecting to see multiple FEET of Snow for the White Mountains and up north near Flagstaff.  The Waste Management Open is starting this week and the weather is not going to cooperate this year.  Most years its rather nice but nasso much this year as the pattern will be cool and wet, however, it should clear up later in the work week.  

BIG Snows forecasted by the Euro...

 

 

Wait, what's this???  Superbowl weekend Snow???  Let's see how this rolls over the coming week...

[Clinton]

21 minutes ago, Tom said:

FLG reported a 2-day total of 9.8" of powder the past couple days...I'm waiting for the updated totals for Sunrise Ski resort to my East as they easily scored the most snow.  This coming week is going to be the best winter stretch for the mountains of Arizona.  I'm fully expecting to see multiple FEET of Snow for the White Mountains and up north near Flagstaff.  The Waste Management Open is starting this week and the weather is not going to cooperate this year.  Most years its rather nice but nasso much this year as the pattern will be cool and wet, however, it should clear up later in the work week.  

BIG Snows forecasted by the Euro...

 

 

Wait, what's this???  Superbowl weekend Snow???  Let's see how this rolls over the coming week...

And the cold is starting to show itself on the control.

[Clinton]

Good write up from Bastardi I want to share.

Seven reasons for huge Feb 10-March 20 for US. No Retreat No Surrender

1) SOI crash for feb.

2 stratwarm in Jan

3 MJO move

 

 

4 teleconnections all flipping

 

 

 

 

6 europe turning very cold again

Cahirs Connection arises 70 north 70 east

Analogs to who's who of winter end games

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good write up from Bastardi I want to share.

Seven reasons for huge Feb 10-March 20 for US. No Retreat No Surrender

1) SOI crash for feb.

2 stratwarm in Jan

3 MJO move

 

 

4 teleconnections all flipping

 

 

 

 

6 europe turning very cold again

Cahirs Connection arises 70 north 70 east

Analogs to who's who of winter end games

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buckle up!  Still plenty on the table till Spring…It also appears the jet will be wild for down here as well which gives me more opportunities to visit some more places before it gets warm.

[CentralNebWeather]

Approaching 1.0” of rain at 8:55 am. 
 

Update - exactly 1.0” as of 9:30 am. It is all soaking in, I don’t see any standing water. Most years the ground is completely frozen now. Potential for another 1” or more into Sunday. Our average precipitation for February is around 0.80”, which usually is melted snow. 

[Andie]

52* Overcast

Received a light shower last night. 
Not beneficial.  
 

[Niko]

No sunshine yet. Still cloudy and quite averaged w temps in the low 30s. Averaged high this time of the year is 33F.

Quick question to anyone that knows this answer to my question: So, typically, if Ground Hog sees its shadow, its 6 more weeks of winter, but how many weeks of winter is left if it does not see its shadow. I.e., if that is the case, what date could be considered an early spring.

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, Niko said:

No sunshine yet. Still cloudy and quite averaged w temps in the low 30s. Averaged high this time of the year is 33F.

Quick question to anyone that knows this answer to my question: So, typically, if Ground Hog sees its shadow, its 6 more weeks of winter, but how many weeks of winter is left if it does not see its shadow. I.e., if that is the case, what date could be considered an early spring.

Good question.  I've always been under the impression that it means spring is imminent... so, like very soon.  Of course, the groundhog stuff is just for fun and I hope nobody really takes the predictive power of an animal in Pennsylvania too seriously.  They do this kind of thing with other groundhogs and other animals too, so there isn't just one... it's just that Phil is the most famous.   

[chescowxman]

Things have been slower on the work front so finally had  a chance to download and consolidate all 23 available Chester County climate data sites (see below table for detail). All stations have been weighted equally for all years they were reporting data . I then compared the all average temperature by decade data to the NCEI NOAA Chester County PA average temperatures reported by decade. As expected the greatest downward post observation adjustments to the data were during the warmest raw data reported decades of the 1930's and 1940's with  a gradual reduction in cooling that started in the 1950's finally resulting in what are now warming adjustments during the most recent 2 decades.

[jaster220]

++FROSTY overnight up here. Normally this will burn off shortly after 9 but after noon it was still going strong.

The middle photo is Dead Stream Swamp on the west side of Houghton Lake. It's lower elevation and the fog was still noticable in that stretch. Otherwise wall-to-wall sunshine is finally visiting The Mitt!!

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, chescowxman said:

Things have been slower on the work front so finally had  a chance to download and consolidate all 23 available Chester County climate data sites (see below table for detail). All stations have been weighted equally for all years they were reporting data . I then compared the all average temperature by decade data to the NCEI NOAA Chester County PA average temperatures reported by decade. As expected the greatest downward post observation adjustments to the data were during the warmest raw data reported decades of the 1930's and 1940's with  a gradual reduction in cooling that started in the 1950's finally resulting in what are now warming adjustments during the most recent 2 decades.

Meaning what exactly? Someone smoothed the curve at the expense of actual reality?

[chescowxman]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Meaning what exactly? Someone smoothed the curve at the expense of actual reality?

Yes - NOAA made post observation adjustments to the raw data. I have discussed these adjustments for years but I am told they have their valid reasons for the adjustments but I have never been a big fan of this as if the data was deemed valid at submission why adjust years after the fact?

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, chescowxman said:

Yes - NOAA made post observation adjustments to the raw data.

K, thought that's what I was reading

@Grizzcoat has alluded to this BS

[chescowxman]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

K, thought that's what I was reading

@Grizzcoat has alluded to this BS

Me too! but when I bring this up on some forums they tell me the adjustments were "needed" based on either perceived faulty equipment changes in observation times or other reasons....the post hoc adjustments do of course help better demonstrate a warming trend....

[Hawkeye]

We made it to 56º a couple days ago, but yesterday and today thick, low stratus killed our temp.  We were stuck in the mid 30s yesterday and the temp has gone nowhere again today... both days well before the forecast.

[Minny_Weather]

Pretty sure by the start of next week we'll finally be back to seasonal temps here in MN. Not necessarily cold, but seasonal.

The bulk of any precip we will receive in the next 10 days will be rain which is not a concern I should be having in February.

[tStacsh]

This stretch of warmer weather coming up has only happened 1 or 2 other times in 125 years for Grand Rapids.  10 days of of around 10 degrees + (or more) of AN highs.  

[Hawkeye]

It's nice to see models beginning to tease a snow system next weekend into early the following week.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 35/25 there was no rain/snow the sun was out 48% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 53 was set in 1962 and the record low of -17 was set in 1996. The biggest snowfall of 10.0” fell in 1900 the most snow on the ground was 20” in 1959. Last year the H/L was 35/9 and there was 5” of snow on the ground.

The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 22. And that is the current reading

[Tom]

This is interesting...Final SSW event for the season???  Big reason that this Winter season is going to have some back loaded legs....I remember a warming event like this one in mid FEB that delivered the "Beast from the East."  I'm wondering if this sets the stage for a "Marvelous March"...in terms of Big Snows....this has potential for some interesting Winter shenanigans.