February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS brings the snow and the artic back!  Snow in KC for superbowl Sunday. 

I’d be happy with just one more decent snow. Next year has to be better than this! 

[Minny_Weather]

Thankfully op GFS is just one model, cuz that <1" of snow for here and points south immediately before a PV invasion is terrible to look at.

[CentralNebWeather]

Quite a forecast for May, I mean February. 

[Niko]

Hopefully, the second half of February can bring in some arctic air again and a few good storms.

[gimmesnow]

It's ok if it's over. Already a lot of dirt on the ski hill today. 10 day ending with 50s and rain here.

[Beltrami Island]

9 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

It's ok if it's over. Already a lot of dirt on the ski hill today. 10 day ending with 50s and rain here.

Still thinking of heading west this season?  I guess there is speculation that we might snap back to a robust la nina next winter.  Thinking about la ninas immediately following a mod/strong el nino are 98-99, 2010-11, and 2016-17.  I think all 3 of those winters were record/near record snow years out west.  Might be worth gambling to wait until next year.  

[gimmesnow]

19 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Still thinking of heading west this season?  I guess there is speculation that we might snap back to a robust la nina next winter.  Thinking about la ninas immediately following a mod/strong el nino are 98-99, 2010-11, and 2016-17.  I think all 3 of those winters were record/near record snow years out west.  Might be worth gambling to wait until next year.  

Yeah I am pretty sure I'm not going out west this year and going to hold off. Actually don't think I'm doing a lot of stuff I had planned this winter, even local stuff within a few hours away. Not worth sitting in a car for 3 to 5 hours to ride slush and dirt. Heard it's pretty bad out there too. 30 hours in a car for a few days of bad snow is dumb. Better off just playing video games lol.

 

 

[Black Hole]

EPS snapshots of the next 45 days. Once we get through the current warm spell it should definitely average colder than normal for the east, and wetter than normal along the Gulf and east coast. I still suspect there will be snow threats for many of us, but difficult to say who at this range...other than that as you go east odds probably go up. 

[gimmesnow]

Might go East Coast boarding trip instead if things play out. I'm signed up for a mid March trip to Lutsen, MN and I'm thinking it's a waste of time at this point. Might cancel and work my way around NY, Vermont, etc. Just depends on the weather I guess.

[gosaints]

1 minute ago, gimmesnow said:

Might go East Coast boarding trip instead if things play out. I'm signed up for a mid March trip to Lutsen, MN and I'm thinking it's a waste of time at this point. Might cancel and work my way around NY, Vermont, etc. Just depends on the weather I guess.

Buffalo is going to be the place to be

[CentralNebWeather]

80-100% chance of rain from Friday night through Sunday. Rarely see that around here during the rainy months. 

[Black Hole]

EPS has the trough expanding west towards the +PNA block in the extended. That's a cold look developing for the Plains, but also probably mostly dry if I had to guess. 

But it's a big time snow pattern for the southeast and east coast. 

[tStacsh]

Going to be a fun week or two of winter we have left.  Best hope is a strong storm or two later in the month.  But this will be remembered as a 10 day winter.  It was a great 10 days.  Maybe it repeats?  But the writing is on the wall obviously for any sustained winter like weather.  The UP barely had one.  Here is a sad example.  
 

[westMJim]

Welcome to February. A quick recap of January 2024. The mean at Grand Rapids was 27.1 that is +2.3 above average. It was indeed a odd month with 13 days in a row of above average to start 9 days in the middle with below average and then 9 days in a row to end. There was 31.3” of snowfall that was above the average of 22.6” it was a wet month with 4.62” of precipitation well above the average of 2.52” while a mild the highest reading of 40 on the 28^th was the coolest maximum for any January since 2009 and the 18^th coolest recorded history at GRR. The low for the month was -5 on the 15th

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 39/34 there was no rain/snowfall and there was no sunshine. The average H/L for today is 31/18 the record high of 51 was set in 1968 and 1989. The record low of -20 was set in 1899. The most snowfall of 8.8” fell in 2015 the most on the ground is 18” in 1959 and 1918, there was 17” on several more years the last time was in 2014. Last year the H/L was 26/10 and there was 6” of snow on the ground.

[westMJim]

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Best hope is a strong storm or two later in the month.  But this will be remembered as a 10 day winter.  It was a great 10 days.  Maybe it repeats?  But the writing is on the wall obviously for any sustained winter like weather.  The UP barely had one.  Here is a sad example.  
 

Here is some more information on Great Lake ice coverage so far this winter,

https://www.weather.gov/cle/GreatLakesIceclimo

[Andie]

No Tx is getting a temperature break.  
in the 60’s for a week with rain chances.  
Acting like Spring.  

[Black Hole]

7 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Going to be a fun week or two of winter we have left.  Best hope is a strong storm or two later in the month.  But this will be remembered as a 10 day winter.  It was a great 10 days.  Maybe it repeats?  But the writing is on the wall obviously for any sustained winter like weather.  The UP barely had one.  Here is a sad example.  
 

Given the longer range forecast, it may well be that there is significantly more lake effect than is typical for Feb or even early March given the nearly ice free lakes. It won't save winter, but it may help at least. 

[Tom]

7 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Going to be a fun week or two of winter we have left.  Best hope is a strong storm or two later in the month.  But this will be remembered as a 10 day winter.  It was a great 10 days.  Maybe it repeats?  But the writing is on the wall obviously for any sustained winter like weather.  The UP barely had one.  Here is a sad example.  
 

Law of averages...had to happen one year or another...You'd think that a Strong Nino would do the trick for a sub par winter...

[Tom]

Knock, Knock...Who's there??  It's me...The CO LOW..."Well, where you heading?"  Heading East, then South...Don't worry, There won't be any snow this time...you can thank El Nino!

What a wasted opportunity....I really was hoping this storm would have been a gnarly one for the Plains/MW...the way this winter and past winters have been of late, this will prob cycle through in Mid March...aka, "March Madness"...back loaded winter for the Southern tier?

[Black Hole]

The 6Z GFS (and other guidance) showing a PV split mid month, so this may keep snow chances alive into mid March. 

[Beltrami Island]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Law of averages...had to happen one year or another...You'd think that a Strong Nino would do the trick for a sub par winter...

In relation to the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest....

If ENSO was a person and ENSO can't lie and ENSO tells you its going to be a crap winter (Very Strong El Nino), you can't act surprised when its a crappy winter.  It doesn't make it make things any less crappy having the warning, you just can't act surprised when it happens.  97-98, 15-16, and now 

The years that sting are years like 2001-02 and 2011-12 where there is no ENSO signal for the very warm winters that ensued.  

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

In relation to the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest....

If ENSO was a person and ENSO can't lie and ENSO tells you its going to be a crap winter (Very Strong El Nino), you can't act surprised when its a crappy winter.  It doesn't make it make things any less crappy having the warning, you just can't act surprised when it happens.  97-98, 15-16, and now 

The years that sting are years like 2001-02 and 2011-12 where there is no ENSO signal for the very warm winters that ensued.  

How much snow have you had this season?

[gimmesnow]

I think it was just extra painful because we got a taste of winter for a week or so and then a major torch. It's always more painful when you get a taste of something you want and then it's ripped away. Like if we just had hardly any snow and had a winter of mid to upper 30s with some cold nights to blow snow I'd be happy.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I think it was just extra painful because we got a taste of winter for a week or so and then a major torch. It's always more painful when you get a taste of something you want and then it's ripped away. Like if we just had hardly any snow and had a winter of mid to upper 30s with some cold nights to blow snow I'd be happy.

The painful and depressing times I do not miss while I lived in Chi…I’d  much more rather rent a cabin in the mountains for a month and see snow on snow on more snow and enjoy the outdoors.  Give me one good month of winter where snow sticks around and the snow depth is deep and I’ll call it a success!

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Given the longer range forecast, it may well be that there is significantly more lake effect than is typical for Feb or even early March given the nearly ice free lakes. It won't save winter, but it may help at least. 

This is a good point.  Even a respectably cold airmass will have the lakes going.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

The 6Z GFS (and other guidance) showing a PV split mid month, so this may keep snow chances alive into mid March. 

This is kind of what I'm leaning toward at the moment.  We turn colder later this month, which lasts into the first week or two of March.  Then potentially a hard flip to warmth as we progress into the back half of March.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Going to be a wet weekend. Nice amounts. 

[Bryan1117]

28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Going to be a wet weekend. Nice amounts. 

Pulling it away from Eastern Nebraska again I see haha… our rain chances and forecasted amounts have dropped quite a bit over the last 24 hours. Sounds kinda familiar, however I am not going to complain about missing out on rain in early February.

[Beltrami Island]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

How much snow have you had this season?

I don't know the official number, 

4" in October. 2-3" inches that fell before Christmas and melted.  2-3" in early January.  7-8" of super fluff mid January.  I guess that could add up to as much as 18".  I know 30-40 miles west had at least 50% more than that. 

I really don't care what the snowfall number is, I track snow depths/snow water content more than the actual snowfall.  The January snow we got was so dry, that 7-8" was probably approaching 30:1 ratios, you could walk through it without even feeling its weight on your feet. 

Here is what snow depths looked like prior to the meltdown.  Even then, areas to my west that had more snow were only barely above the 20th percentile for date.  This weeks update is going to have a hole lot more 0-5% areas.

        

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

I don't know the official number, 

4" in October. 2-3" inches that fell before Christmas and melted.  2-3" in early January.  7-8" of super fluff mid January.  I guess that could add up to as much as 18".  I know 30-40 miles west had at least 50% more than that. 

I really don't care what the snowfall number is, I track snow depths/snow water content more than the actual snowfall.  The January snow we got was so dry, that 7-8" was probably approaching 30:1 ratios, you could walk through it without even feeling its weight on your feet. 

Here is what snow depths looked like prior to the meltdown.  Even then, areas to my west that had more snow were only barely above the 20th percentile for date.  This weeks update is going to have a hole lot more 0-5% areas.

        

That brown ribbon right through the heart of MSP is a dagger to any snow fan.  I guess it had to come sooner rather than later bc they’ve had the hot hand over the past few years.  Overall, MN needs the precip as we turn the corner towards Spring.

[Beltrami Island]

Don't worry MSP you have as much snow as the most of Minnesota.  A big swath of Ontario is going to be bare ground as well before anything close to normal winter temps return.

To say I have 4" left on the ground might be technically correct, but a lot of bare patches are showing up in wind prone and sun exposed areas.  In town its just snowbanks and snow piles looking like late march/april.   

[tStacsh]

16 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Don't worry MSP you have as much snow as the most of Minnesota.  A big swath of Ontario is going to be bare ground as well before anything close to normal winter temps return.

To say I have 4" left on the ground might be technically correct, but a lot of bare patches are showing up in wind prone and sun exposed areas.  In town its just snowbanks and snow piles looking like late march/april.   

I've had 9 minutes of sunshine total in the last 10 days!.   Lost most of my snow without it.   The sun this weekend and dryness will completely end snowpack in the midwest.  Piles should last quite a bit though.  

[gimmesnow]

Yeah lol I have a trip mid March to Lutsen. They have 16in base and only 40/61 runs open. All man made snow. And every resort I've been to this year has been lying out of their arse about base. Like comically lying. "24-36in base" but ski patrol is blocking off obstructions in the middle of the run.

Probably need to cancel and get my money back.

I did go outside and hand wash my car and went for a little walk. Some guy is on a row boat skimming across the 2 inches of ice we have, lol. Thought that was pretty funny. It feels like mid March out there already. I'm gonna go work on my jet skis saturday but I have a pretty good feeling it's going to be one of those winter/spring transitions where it kills the ski hills then gets too cold to do anything else. At least I have a big backlog of video games to work through.

[Minny_Weather]

5 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

To say I have 4" left on the ground might be technically correct, but a lot of bare patches are showing up in wind prone and sun exposed areas.  In town its just snowbanks and snow piles looking like late march/april

Same deal down here except we didn't get any big snowfalls so we had about 5-6" on the ground at its prime. At this point, all of it is gone except displaced snow from plows/shovels.

[gosaints]

Gonna be a chilly 41 today. Coldest day thru next Thursday.  Ridiculous stretch

[Madtown]

Gonna be pushing that long range cold snap into next winter at this point. Out to the 17th now!

[westMJim]

First off Punxsutawney Phil did NOT see his shadow so spring is already here LOL. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 43/34 That 43 was the warmest high since December 30^th there was no rain/snow the sun was out just 1% of the time. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 50 was set in 2020 (that is the coolest maximum for any day at Grand Rapids) The record low of -11 was set in 1971 the most snowfall of 11.1” was set in 2011 the most snow on the ground is 19” is 2014. There was 18” in 2011, 1959 and 1918. Last year the H/L was 33/15 and there was 5” of snow on the ground.

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for February 2nd

1868: It is a chilly Groundhog Day as Lansing sets their all-time record low with a reading of 37 below zero.

On February 2, 2022, a winter storm produced a swath of heavy snow from Lansing to Owosso to Flint to Caro with 10 to 12 inches reported.

2011, the Groundhog Day Blizzard affected a large area of the country from Oklahoma to the New England States, including southeast Michigan. The snow started during the evening hours of the 1st and continued into the 2nd. Snowfall accumulations generally range from 6 to 12 inches. Isolated higher amounts were recorded across the Thumb and Tri-Cities Region. Northeast winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph caused some blowing and drifting of snow. Frequent wind gusts to 35 mph came off Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay, leading to blizzard conditions north of the I-69 corridor. Some of the higher snowfall reports across the area included: Pigeon 14 inches; Port Huron 14 inches; Lapeer 13.6 inches; Lexington 13.5 inches; Bridgeport 13 inches; Mayville 13 inches; Pinconning 12 inches; Flushing 11 inches; Lake Orion 10 inches; and Romulus 9 inches.

1967, Flint measured 9.3″ of snow from another snowstorm that occurred February 1st-2nd. The groundhog probably had trouble getting out of his burrow that morning, let alone see his shadow.

1936, this marked the last day of a streak of 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936) with daily temperatures colder than 19 degrees

Other parts of the USA

1952: An area of low pressure moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida during the evening and late-night hours on February 2, 1952. It produced 60 mph winds and two to four inches of rain on February 2 and 3. The low pressure remains the only tropical storm to impact the United States in February.

1996: An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower’s annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36°, Osage, IA: -34°, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32° and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31°. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45° and -38°, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53°. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34° for its coldest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached -16° for the high temperature for the day, their coldest high temperature on record in February. The place to be this day was in Orlando, FL, where it was a balmy 85 degrees.

 

[Andie]

Holding in the 60’s today and for the next 8 days. 8 days!  
Is it April? 

[Niko]

Big warm-up coming next week. My area could potentially hit 50F. Still some large snow piles around. Great thing is that sunshine will be returning by tomorrow (ahhhh, some Vitamin D). Temps remain AB until further notice.