February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Andstorm]

I’m not smart enough to follow all the SSW/MJO discussion, but just looking at teleconnections, it would appear at face value like we have a shot at blocking and colder air second half of february with both arctic oscillation and EPO going negative. But sounds like situation is much more nuanced. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I’m not smart enough to follow all the SSW/MJO discussion, but just looking at teleconnections, it would appear at face value like we have a shot at blocking and colder air second half of february with both arctic oscillation and EPO going negative. But sounds like situation is much more nuanced. 

If you are a betting person, having a snowless February in Puget sound is NOT likely but we will see soon. The table will turn soon and we should have a shot of below normal temps coming up if everything tries to average out.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I’m not smart enough to follow all the SSW/MJO discussion, but just looking at teleconnections, it would appear at face value like we have a shot at blocking and colder air second half of february with both arctic oscillation and EPO going negative. But sounds like situation is much more nuanced. 

Problem is high AAM/extended jet and +PNA/+TNH. Very typical late winter niño regime.

[Phil]

 

[Andstorm]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cansips looks great for next winter 

Interesting. Are these at all predictive this far out?

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If you are a betting person, having a snowless February in Puget sound is NOT likely but we will see soon. The table will turn soon and we should have a shot of below normal temps coming up if everything tries to average out.

There are plenty of snowless strong niño februaries.

All post-2016 seasonal tendencies can be thrown out the window.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Interesting. Are these at all predictive this far out?

At that range they are basically showing a reflection of what we might expect given the forecast ENSO state.  Those maps look like La Niña 500mb patterns. 

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are plenty of snowless strong niño februaries.

All post-2016 seasonal tendencies can be thrown out the window.

I think there’s a decent chance that a few people see some snow showers over the next week to 10 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

At that range they are basically showing a reflection of what we might expect given the forecast ENSO state.  Those maps look like La Niña 500mb patterns. 

ICEAGENOW

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICEAGENOW

Action League Now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Action League Now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUFpaXe_yVs

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice and frosty this morning. Just barely touched 32. Mostly sunny and 38 now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUFpaXe_yVs

Sneak peek of the next weather meeting at Andrew’s place?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sneak peek of the next weather meeting at Andrew’s place?  

Blessings

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think there’s a decent chance that a few people see some snow showers over the next week to 10 days. 

Oh yeah the Andrews and Tims of the region probably will. I thought he was talking about accumulating snowfall in the Puget Sound region.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are plenty of snowless strong niño februaries.

All post-2016 seasonal tendencies can be thrown out the window.

Just going by memory there has only been  2 winters without any lowland snow west of cascades in February and March the last ten years. 15 and 16  I think.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Oh yeah the Andrews and Tims of the region probably will. I thought he was talking about accumulating snowfall in the Puget Sound region.

I was talking west of cascades lowlands. So a large area really. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Blessings

The big guy kinda looked like Rob. I’m guessing the midget would be Brian Schmidt?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX barely missed a freeze with a low of 33. VUO hit 30, not too bad.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Andstorm said:

Interesting. Are these at all predictive this far out?

I assume it’s just based off La Niña forecasts 

[Slushy Inch]

Nice euro run. Even some wet lowland snow mixing in maybe. A pscz could make this a memorable event if the trough/wind lines up right. Bummer there is no cold air or high pressure in BC.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice euro run. Even some wet lowland snow mixing in maybe. A pscz could make this a memorable event if the trough/wind lines up right. Bummer there is no cold air or high pressure in BC.

Looks like some snow for the oft forgotten non-Puget sound city that lies along the lower reaches of the Great River of the West, not far from where it dramatically exits the mighty Cascade Mountains through a broad and deep, waterfall-filled canyon, and at its junction with the waters that drain the fertile valley Willa-Mette.

Edited February 3 by Cascadia_Wx

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like some snow for the oft forgotten non-Puget sound city that lies along the lower reaches of the Great River of the West, at its junction with the waters that drain the fertile valley Willa-Mette.

I said some wet lowland snow generally, that includes the non puget sound area. The only chance anyone in the area gets significantly snow accumulation would be in a pscz.

[SnowWillarrive]

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice euro run. Even some wet lowland snow mixing in maybe. A pscz could make this a memorable event if the trough/wind lines up right. Bummer there is no cold air or high pressure in BC.

Looks like a swamp special 

[OysterPrintout]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Out of the town near west yellowstone is awesome.  150-200 inches a year, world class recreation outdoors and nice summers. Also very cold. Awesome area.

Had a friend who worked in Island Park seasonally, used to go up there and fly fish on Henrys Fork. Gorgeous summers for the approximately 34 hours of total summer you get before it starts snowing again.

[ShawniganLake]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

Oh yeah the Andrews and Tims of the region probably will. I thought he was talking about accumulating snowfall in the Puget Sound region.

Yea. Maybe Mossman or PSCZ areas too. But it’s the type of pattern where any heavier overnight showers could knock the snow level down below 500ft just about anywhere. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Had my first freeze this morning since the epic cold/snow/ice/wind event last month. Now a beautiful sunny day!  

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just going by memory there has only been  2 winters without any lowland snow west of cascades in February and March the last ten years. 15 and 16  I think.

 

Yep, and 2016 was the last strong niño.

The last 7 years are a highly skewed sample (heavy -ENSO lean and a record breaking SSW in ‘19). None of them are analogous to the current system state and its pending evolution.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro gets nice and snowy for BC around day 8.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

40 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Had a friend who worked in Island Park seasonally, used to go up there and fly fish on Henrys Fork. Gorgeous summers for the approximately 34 hours of total summer you get before it starts snowing again.

West yellowstone averages about 150 sunny days per year or more. Atleast that is what the internet data shows.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Whatever happened to Puyallup John? 

[Phil]

Such a beautifully synchronized system state. Note how the STJ is emergent from east-asia/IO and channeled via exhaust from  MJO-enhanced IPWP convection.

The tropics and middle latitudes are communicating in a mutually receptive/constructive manner. And the ensemble agreement is damn near perfect.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

January's rain, 16.32 here! Since Nov1 that makes 52.11 inches of rain. Absolutely insane. By far the wettest period I've had here since 2004. 1 station says 54.22 and my Davis says 52.11. Used the Davis for this observation. 

[TacomaWx]

5 years ago right now the first flakes of the February 2019 event were beginning to fall. It also snowed on this day 4 years ago as well. 

[ShawniganLake]

Mount Cain ski hill on Northern Vancouver island looking very summer like yesterday. 
 

*I stole this photo, it’s not mine. 
 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Only a few record highs in BC yesterday. Should be the last for awhile. 
 

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 11:03 p.m. PST Friday 2 February 2024.

Discussion.

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
February 2, 2024: 

Blue River Area 
New record of 7.2 
Old record of 6.3 set in 1995 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Prince George Area 
New record of 9.5 
Old record of 8.9 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Yoho (National Park) Area 
New record of 6.4 
Old record of 5.6 set in 1954 
Records in this area have been kept since 1923 

 

[TacomaWx]

29 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro gets nice and snowy for BC around day 8.  

There’s definitely a chance at some marginal stuff coming up. Hopefully some people can get something im sitting at just a trace of snowfall so far this winter and I feel like that’ll probably be it. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

There are plenty of snowless strong niño februaries.

All post-2016 seasonal tendencies can be thrown out the window.

I think he is referring to our recent Februarys being unable to not have cold weather or snow.  It's like magic dust has been sprinkled on Feb beginning with 2017.  Do not rule this month out if you know what's good for you.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

5 years ago right now the first flakes of the February 2019 event were beginning to fall. It also snowed on this day 4 years ago as well. 

I was in Quesnel BC 5 years ago today. Windchill hit -40F

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Mount Cain ski hill on Northern Vancouver island looking very summer like yesterday. 
 

*I stole this photo, it’s not mine. 
 

 

Yeah....the Coast ranges are really bad.  The Olympics are like 30% of normal snowpack right now.