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February 2024 Weather in the PNW


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34 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I wonder if extreme cold in Alaska is typical for the latter half of El Niño winters. Always seemed like more of a Niña thing to me but I could be wrong.

Amazing winter climate.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We let it go dormant in 2021 and its never been the same since.   Time to start over and make the grass area smaller as well.  

I didn’t water our backyard lawn at all last summer thinking it would go dormant. But it seems to have mostly died. We’ll see what happens when spring comes. 

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Currently 48 degrees with dribbles. 
.01” so far on the day, .19” for the month, 5.63” for the year. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

There was a late SSW in 2016?   

Final warming, yes. It was in March, though.

Niño climo is super difficult to beat in late winter/spring.

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The grass by the deck got nuked when a friends puppy came over to play with my dogs and kids when it was bare ground and 19 degrees. I knew it was toast when I said sure come on over, but that area really grows well so as soon as we are into about May you won’t even notice it. My unmolested grass already needs mowing however. 

IMG_2494.jpeg

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Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Phil the Groundhog did not see his shadow, which means no more winter for the east! I think that means the opposite should be true for us

 

Coldest temp this winter: -6 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated Feb 21st) 94" 

Snow depth at my home (updated 2pm Feb 21st): 1.5"

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38 minutes ago, Phil said:

Final warming, yes. It was in March, though.

Niño climo is super difficult to beat in late winter/spring.

Based on the graph I posted... it was take big hits by the beginning of February in 2016.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

The grass by the deck got nuked when a friends puppy came over to play with my dogs and kids when it was bare ground and 19 degrees. I knew it was toast when I said sure come on over, but that area really grows well so as soon as we are into about May you won’t even notice it. My unmolested grass already needs mowing however. 

IMG_2494.jpeg

IMG_2496.jpeg

Get some lime and spread it around. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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12Z ECMWF is more robust with that system in the middle of next week before the AL pattern takes hold... nice increase in snow amounts for the mountains.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7458400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Feb is trying 9C0DE222-DF4B-4514-A410-81D098189A08.png

But inevitably failing. Too much westerly momentum to avoid a progressive outcome.

Just 36hrs later it gets punted east. 

IMG_0155.gif

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image.png

Some Central Valley snowfall on the 12z...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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31 minutes ago, Phil said:

But inevitably failing. Too much westerly momentum to avoid a progressive outcome.

Just 36hrs later it gets punted east. 

IMG_0155.gif

12Z EPS shows the same thing... that trough doesn't really have a chance to establish itself.   But hopefully it can bring a good period of mountain snow later next week.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1706875200-1706875200-1708171200-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1706875200-1706875200-1708171200-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just keeps getting better.  We're going to have another shot at it I think.  Keep in mind the models usually don't react as far as the sensible weather is concerned until the SSW is actually happening.

Fri 02 Feb 2024

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just keeps getting better.  We're going to have another shot at it I think.  Keep in mind the models usually don't react as far as the sensible weather is concerned until the SSW is actually happening.

Fri 02 Feb 2024

Not every SSW delivers to the PNW.  Could be due for a miss

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Up in Portland at the Oregon Convention Center today if anybody wants to come say hi.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just keeps getting better.  We're going to have another shot at it I think.  Keep in mind the models usually don't react as far as the sensible weather is concerned until the SSW is actually happening.

Fri 02 Feb 2024

2016 is a glaring example of a large SSW event that started in February and culminated in early March that did not lead to cold weather here.   Phil has been saying that the Nino may override the effects out here.  

Screenshot_20240201-231603_Chrome.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2016 is a glaring example of a large SSW event that started in February and culminated in early March that did not lead to cold weather here.   Phil has been saying that the Nino may override the effects out here.  

Screenshot_20240201-231603_Chrome.jpg

 

In some cases it seems like the final warming can effectively just mean the cold air vanishing right along with the PV. That was certainly the case in 2016, when that PV split pretty much just rang in spring for everybody.

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32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Can’t speak for Phil, but I feel like my shadow has been shedding skin and making me pick scabs again.

For today’s weather, looking for a high of 46 and a low of 2.

Well played. I will be seeing them in Las Vegas on the 18th. 

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53 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up in Portland at the Oregon Convention Center today if anybody wants to come say hi.

Did you happen to bring your weather station with you.  I think Jesse wanted to stop by and calibrate everything for you. 😂 

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17 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Did you happen to bring your weather station with you.  I think Jesse wanted to stop by and calibrate everything for you. 😂 

Wasn’t able to grab it off the roof unfortunately. My roof climbing skills eluded me this morning.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wasn’t able to grab it off the roof unfortunately. My roof climbing skills eluded me this morning.

If only Phil was there to help, he has mastered the art of being on roofs, especially those with high exposure.

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Coldest temp this winter: -6 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated Feb 21st) 94" 

Snow depth at my home (updated 2pm Feb 21st): 1.5"

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

2016 is a glaring example of a large SSW event that started in February and culminated in early March that did not lead to cold weather here.   Phil has been saying that the Nino may override the effects out here.  

Screenshot_20240201-231603_Chrome.jpg

Lead to some wind though! 

IMG_2497.jpeg

IMG_2499.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Uh oh, oregons best beaver forecaster Stumptown Fil says we're in for an early spring. I think winter's over ☹.Screenshot_20240202-142327_Chrome.thumb.jpg.5f994cf7487c7ff72f8d8d12c5fa2af9.jpg

Looks like there is hope for Vancouver to score again, though!

https://globalnews.ca/news/10268743/bc-groundhog-day-van-isle-violet-2024/

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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11 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Uh oh, oregons best beaver forecaster Stumptown Fil says we're in for an early spring. I think winter's over ☹.Screenshot_20240202-142327_Chrome.thumb.jpg.5f994cf7487c7ff72f8d8d12c5fa2af9.jpg

I’m making peace with it. Seeing lots of buds on the trees after yesterday. And today is once again wildly overachieving temp wise. Let’s just get the torching out of the way the next couple months and maybe we can have a more reasonable mid-spring thru summer for once.

I’m happy that we at least had a very solid cold spell (our best in decades by many measures) to bookend the early winter torching from the late winter torching. And many places scored a below average Jan when all was said and done. About the most we could hope for given the circumstances.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Well played. I will be seeing them in Las Vegas on the 18th. 

Jelly!!!

We were toying with the idea of going to that since we’re going to a Knights game on the 20th but it couldn’t be made to work.  They’ve always eluded me over the years and I’ve still never seen them live.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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42 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m making peace with it. Seeing lots of buds on the trees after yesterday. And today is once again wildly overachieving temp wise. Let’s just get the torching out of the way the next couple months and maybe we can have a more reasonable mid-spring thru summer for once.

I’m happy that we at least had a very solid cold spell (our best in decades by many measures) to bookend the early winter torching from the late winter torching. And many places scored a below average Jan when all was said and done. About the most we could hope for given the circumstances.

Be nice to have a normal sumer around here. 70 -75 at the warmest and I'd be in heaven. This 80 degree plus crap can stay in California or Florida where it belongs.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Be nice to have a normal sumer around here. 70 -75 at the warmest and I'd be in heaven. This 80 degree plus crap can stay in California or Florida where it belongs.

Normal high in Seattle is basically 80 now in the heart of the summer... same out here in the Snoqualmie Valley.    And close to the mid 80s in Portland.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I have no idea what Phil saw on this day 35 years ago, but what I saw was BLOWING and DRIFTING snow with temperatures holding steady in the upper teens and then dropping from there as DARKNESS approached. Mind you, this was not in my 14 year old weather vocab at this point. What was occurring was UNIMAGINABLE on a June 2021 scale. It was GLORIOUS.

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_198902030000_5436_310.png

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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