February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS puts us high and dry during week 2 and then retrogrades the block at the end of the run.  Very possible outcome given other models have been hinting at the block right over us during part of week 2, but way too soon to tell.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Normal high in Seattle is basically 80 now in the heart of the summer... same out here in the Snoqualmie Valley.    And close to the mid 80s in Portland.     

I do not live in Seattle.  Mid 70's is the hottest average high around the canal. 

[snow_wizard]

The models are all over the SSW now.  Still not sure if it will split the PV or not.  Another late Feb cold snap would be insane given how many we've had in recent years, but it might happen.  All I know is SSW's have been gold for us in recent years.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I do not live in Seattle.  Mid 70's is the hottest average high around the canal. 

Yeah....it seems like Shelton runs cooler than OLM in the summer.

I really hope we can pull off a cool July at least.  We did in 2010 with the major Nino to Nina transition.  We didn't fare as well in 2016.  As for August....warm until further notice as far as I'm concerned.  We have not even come close on that month in over 20 years.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I do not live in Seattle.  Mid 70's is the hottest average high around the canal. 

Well you probably had lots of 70s in recent summers when Seattle is in the low 80s.   All good.

[Slushy Inch]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

But inevitably failing. Too much westerly momentum to avoid a progressive outcome.

Just 36hrs later it gets punted east. 

Even deep troughs that go right over us in model runs have lacked any actual cold

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Even deep troughs that go right over us in model runs have lacked any actual cold

That will change by mid month I'm thinking.  The supply of cold has been all or nothing this winter for the entire county.  We will probably see another attempt at a major nationwide cold wave later on.

Just looking at our recent Februarys again and it's mind blowing.  Out of the last 7 we have had significant cold and or significant snow in all but one.

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....it seems like Shelton runs cooler than OLM in the summer.

I really hope we can pull off a cool July at least.  We did in 2010 with the major Nino to Nina transition.  We didn't fare as well in 2016.  As for August....warm until further notice as far as I'm concerned.  We have not even come close on that month in over 20 years.

July 2016 was pretty reasonable overall. OLM was only slightly warmer than their long term POR average that month, and it was a cooler than July than every year since 2012, except 2020.

[snow_wizard]

At least it looks like the 12z ECMWF may have been rock bottom for lameness on cold night potential.  The 18z is a bit better.  Might even be some light frost in places tonight.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....it seems like Shelton runs cooler than OLM in the summer.

I really hope we can pull off a cool July at least.  We did in 2010 with the major Nino to Nina transition.  We didn't fare as well in 2016.  As for August....warm until further notice as far as I'm concerned.  We have not even come close on that month in over 20 years.

August 2011 was fairly chilly for western WA. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

July 2016 was pretty reasonable overall. OLM was only slightly warmer than their long term POR average that month, and it was a cooler than July than every year since 2012, except 2020.

That is interesting.  I just gave it a quick look.  Might have a decent shot at this one being comfortable then.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

August 2011 was fairly chilly for western WA. 

That's with the new normal though.  I was talking about a no doubt about it cool one.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well you probably had lots of 70s in recent summers when Seattle is in the low 80s.   All good.

We're both close, average high for seabeck in August is 77.

[snow_wizard]

I just ran the number for the Puget Sound Lowlands.  Every August has been above the 1895 to present mean since 2000.  The coolest ones since 2000 were.

2007 = +0.2

2006 = +0.5

2010= +0.7

2011 = +0.8

The three coolest Julys were

2011 = -1.4

2012 = -0.2

2010 = +0.2

Collectively 2010 and 2011 were the two coolest summers in the past 20 years.

 

[Phishy Wx]

so how's the next arctic blast looking?

[snow_wizard]

Here's the final national map for January.  That torch at the end ate a lot of the cold anoms, but still not bad.  The big loser from a Nino climo standpoint has been the NE...at least so far.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

so how's the next arctic blast looking?

The SSW looks solid now.  It will take a while for that to do its magic.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's with the new normal though.  I was talking about a no doubt about it cool one.

It was still colder than the long term POR average at OLM. It sounded like you were saying we hadn't been even close to a cool one in over 20 years...sorry if I misunderstood.

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just ran the number for the Puget Sound Lowlands.  Every August has been above the 1895 to present mean since 2000.  The coolest ones since 2000 were.

2007 = +0.2

2006 = +0.5

2010= +0.7

2011 = +0.8

The three coolest Julys were

2011 = -1.4

2012 = -0.2

2010 = +0.2

Collectively 2010 and 2011 were the two coolest summers in the past 20 years.

 

i just want some variability

 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Here's the final national map for January.  That torch at the end ate a lot of the cold anoms, but still not bad.

Definitely better than January 1998.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are all over the SSW now.  Still not sure if it will split the PV or not.  Another late Feb cold snap would be insane given how many we've had in recent years, but it might happen.  All I know is SSW's have been gold for us in recent years.

February 2011, 2018, or 2023 here we come!! 

[Phishy Wx]

that won't translate to the surface until early March

[Deweydog]

Some cool clouds out there despite the not so cool temperatures.

[Front Ranger]

For those of you dealing with climate anxiety, there are ways to cope: https://www.thecollegefix.com/colorado-professor-dresses-like-butterfly-to-fight-climate-anxiety/

@SilverFallsAndrew

[Front Ranger]

36 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that won't translate to the surface until early March

Didn't work like that in January. I'm kinda skeptical of any hard and fast rules to how SSWs affect the weather, personally.

[snow_wizard]

58 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i just want some variability

 

Yuck.

As terrible has January has been, August takes the cake for inability to get below normal anymore.  It has to be that expanded 4CH.

As an aside....the graph sure shows a big dip in the late 1960s through mid 1970s for August.  Even cooler than the 1950s.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Didn't work like that in January. I'm kinda skeptical of any hard and fast rules to how SSWs affect the weather, personally.

Indeed.  In January it was a very fast response.  All I know is there is some kind of a connection.  Way too many of these have flipped the pattern for it to be a coincidence.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

For those of you dealing with climate anxiety, there are ways to cope: https://www.thecollegefix.com/colorado-professor-dresses-like-butterfly-to-fight-climate-anxiety/

@SilverFallsAndrew

My prayers have been answered.  I had no idea it was that easy!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Made it up to 51.0˚F today, adding to the streak of 50-burgers.

[snow_wizard]

Only hit 52 here today.  Things are colling off nicely.  Looking forward to the delightful 30s tonight.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Made it up to 51.0˚F today, adding to the streak of 50-burgers.

Basically normal for this time of year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

so how's the next arctic blast looking?

Antarctic

[the_convergence_zone]

55 here today…which makes it the coldest day out of the last 7.

Saw a hummingbird on my red flowering currant shrub which has started to bloom. 

[MossMan]

Looks like a spring evening…Except for the Christmas lights. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

55/45 day here so far. Partly to mostly cloudy with lots of sunbreaks and big puffy clouds around. 

Already down to 48 this evening with clearing skies, so good chance we improve upon the low.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Staying lite later! This was taken at a friend’s house a little after 5:30pm.

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like a spring evening…Except for the Christmas lights. 

it is spring

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

39 here! And the frogs are making lots of noise!!

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

it is spring

False spring that happens every year. I will have accumulating snow again at some point in the next 5 weeks. 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

False spring that happens every year. I will have accumulating snow again at some point in the next 5 weeks. 

of course and a bunch of graupel