February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[lowlandsnow]

58 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sub40 high probability change

Actually sub 40 probabilities are much lower that's the probability the min temp in that 6-hour range is below 40

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Actually sub 40 probabilities are much lower that's the probability the min temp in that 6-hour range is below 40

Doesn’t say 6hr range anywhere. Though you may be right. Mean for that hour is 44-45  degrees. Oh yeah it does say min.

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

just a weee bit rare, no?

For sure. But given our relatively brief period of records, "unprecedented" things happen all the time. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive how much the Pacific influence has been tamed for next week.  Looks like a legit shot at solidly below normal temps for a few days now.

[snow_wizard]

Let's keep this trend going.

[snow_wizard]

I think it's time to pay much more attention to the AI model now.  It has done well over the past several weeks.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Let's keep this trend going.

Run is a solid improvement. Cold air still doesn’t make it south. But at least it’s present in B.C this run.

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like a wet one.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty easy to see the potential for this thing to last even longer given recent model trends.  The intrusion of the Pacific Jet keeps getting pushed back.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Run is a solid improvement. Cold air still doesn’t make it south. But at least it’s present in B.C this run.

It gets pretty chilly though.  850s well below normal and freezing nights.  Any improvement from here and it gets pretty real.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It gets pretty chilly though.  850s well below normal and freezing nights.

Sneaks in some lowland snow somehow. Mountains buried.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty easy to see the potential for this thing to last even longer given recent model trends.  The intrusion of the Pacific Jet keeps getting pushed back.

ITS TOTALLY COMING! YOU KNOW ALL THOSE TIMES THAT 2 WEEKS OUT WE WERE GONNA GET COLD, BUT THEN IT GETS RUG PULLED, RIGHT? OPPOSITE IS HAPPENING THIS YEAR! EVERY FEBRUARY FROM 2021-2030 WILL HAVE SOME KIND OF COLD EVENT! THE FEBRUARYS WITH ALL THE MEMORIES, AND THIS ONE WILL BE THE FEBRUARY OF THE CENTURY!

 

ITSSS COMING!

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sneaks in some lowland snow somehow. Mountains buried.

Bullseye.  Over a foot of snow for southern Vancouver Island 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sneaks in some lowland snow somehow. Mountains buried.

I'm loving the trends on this.  Remember it was just a 12 hour glancing blow a couple of days ago.  You never know...

At any rate the article I saw the other day about this month being likely to have spring like temps isn't looking accurate...at least for a while.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm loving the trends on this.  Remember it was just a 12 hour glancing blow a couple of days ago.  You never know...

At any rate the article I saw the other day about this month being likely to have spring like temps isn't looking accurate...at least for a while.

The chilly airmass doesn’t last long on the euro.  The ridge is undercutting almost simultaneously with the cold air arriving. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

49 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sneaks in some lowland snow somehow. Mountains buried.

This buries me…

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm loving the trends on this.  Remember it was just a 12 hour glancing blow a couple of days ago.  You never know...

At any rate the article I saw the other day about this month being likely to have spring like temps isn't looking accurate...at least for a while.

Only 1 day has had a high temp below 50F this month so far.

We only made it up to 48F on the 4th.

17 of the last 18 days had had highs of 50F or worse.

[Slushy Inch]

EPS is looking better

[Slushy Inch]

Another run to run like this and we’ll be in business 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sneaks in some lowland snow somehow. Mountains buried.

I don't know about buried, but it's nice to see a little snow showing up in the models for the mountains now. Definitely better snow than we've seen recently, but Mt. Baker averages 30" a week of snow in February so this shows one average February week.

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Lightning strike over UW in Seattle.

Darn, missed it!

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

@TT-SEA Is probably seeing some snow right now. 34F and saturated with precip ongoing.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know about buried, but it's nice to see a little snow showing up in the models for the mountains now. Definitely better snow than we've seen recently, but Mt. Baker averages 30" a week of snow in February so this shows one average February week.

Mt Baker isn't a large enough feature to be resolved by the global scale models. In reality the pattern depicted would probably drop two or three times what's shown there. All in all that looks very snowy.

[Phil]

Finally had time to dig into composite indices/etc yesterday, and IMO it is now evident that this niño was not associated with a termination of the -PMM & retracted state of the IPWP equatorial flank. Henceforth, it is unlikely the IPWP extension (and trend into +PMM) will occur this year (theoretically it could be set into motion via the upcoming SSW/FW, although we wouldn’t have indication of that until summer).

Instead, it seems more likely that 2025 is the year the IPWP/WPWP will truly undergo the change of state. Which means 2024 is probably another entrenched +AMO/+AMM and -PMM SSTA configuration with reduced off-equator NPAC convection, only with decaying niño instead of building niño.

Getting the exact timing of this intradecadal cycle right is difficult given the frequencies we’re working with. As can be seen here, this niño was more of the 97/98, 09/10 variety in terms of synchronicity w/ the IPWP structure, as opposed to 15/16, 02/03, 94/95, etc.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got down to 31 this morning and our back deck was a sheet of ice.  Doggie ABS works really good, she came running back up on the deck after her morning trip to water the lawn, and went to stop.  I was impressed, she stayed on her feet and got herself stopped before she slid into something.  Bummed I didn't get a video because it was pretty d*mn funny.

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

off topic, but tornadoes in Wisconsin in early Feb.  yikes.  this has never happened before

 

 

 

There was one in Southern California. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Finally had time to dig into composite indices/etc yesterday, and IMO it is now evident that this niño was not associated with a termination of the -PMM & retracted state of the IPWP equatorial flank. Henceforth, it is unlikely the IPWP extension (and trend into +PMM) will occur this year (theoretically it could be set into motion via the upcoming SSW/FW, although we wouldn’t have indication of that until summer).

Instead, it seems more likely that 2025 is the year the IPWP/WPWP will truly undergo the change of state. Which means 2024 is probably another entrenched +AMO/+AMM and -PMM SSTA configuration with reduced off-equator NPAC convection, only with decaying niño instead of building niño.

Getting the exact timing of this intradecadal cycle right is difficult given the frequencies we’re working with. As can be seen here, this niño was more of the 97/98, 09/10 variety in terms of synchronicity w/ the IPWP structure, as opposed to 15/16, 02/03, 94/95, etc.

Too many acronyms.

[MossMan]

35 degrees currently. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Stayed clear overnight, so… 29.5˚F.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sneaks in some lowland snow somehow. Mountains buried.

I'm in the blue!

[MossMan]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I'm in the blue!

Only 2nd shade of grey here…Throw it out. 

[Slushy Inch]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

Finally had time to dig into composite indices/etc yesterday, and IMO it is now evident that this niño was not associated with a termination of the -PMM & retracted state of the IPWP equatorial flank. Henceforth, it is unlikely the IPWP extension (and trend into +PMM) will occur this year (theoretically it could be set into motion via the upcoming SSW/FW, although we wouldn’t have indication of that until summer).

Instead, it seems more likely that 2025 is the year the IPWP/WPWP will truly undergo the change of state. Which means 2024 is probably another entrenched +AMO/+AMM and -PMM SSTA configuration with reduced off-equator NPAC convection, only with decaying niño instead of building niño.

Getting the exact timing of this intradecadal cycle right is difficult given the frequencies we’re working with. As can be seen here, this niño was more of the 97/98, 09/10 variety in terms of synchronicity w/ the IPWP structure, as opposed to 15/16, 02/03, 94/95, etc.

Dude try to speak in more understanding words please.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z wasn’t bad. 

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

Best run so far! This is looking better and better. Not far enough west for snow on this run but certainly the coldest so far.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’m in the light purple! 

[ShawniganLake]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

@TT-SEA Is probably seeing some snow right now. 34F and saturated with precip ongoing.

I thought he was enjoying the beaches of Hawaii currently 

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Lightning strike over UW in Seattle.

Cliff mass spontaneously combusted

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the light purple! 

Eps isn’t as good. But I think this has potential