February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not really much in the way of excitement in the models for here. Hopefully next winter will be better. At least we had some sub-freezing high temps. That was the highlight of the winter so in that respect it was better than the winter of 2020-2021 for example.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not really much in the way of excitement in the models for here. Hopefully next winter will be better. At least we had some sub-freezing high temps. That was the highlight of the winter so in that respect it was better than the winter of 2020-2021 for example.

You had a good winter down there. Not much to complain about. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

[ShawniganLake]

Another euro run showing well over a foot of snow here next week.   

I know, I need to charge my phone!

 

[MossMan]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Another euro run showing well over a foot of snow here next week.   

I know, I need to charge my phone!

 

Plenty of time left for those more exciting colors to move just a tad more south! 

[snow_wizard]

Not hard to imagine this going somewhere.  This run is full of potential.  Considering the ENSO state to even have a shot in February is doing really good.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Plenty of time left for those more exciting colors to move just a tad more south! 

This thing is far from decided.  Incredibly complex situation.

[snow_wizard]

In the meantime the visible sat pic shows the clouds finally clearing out for real.  Might FINALLY score a freeze tonight.

[RCola]

Whelp, guess the prayers backfired immediately.   Silly me investing in the GFS.

 

In all seriousness, I'm not expecting much more from this winter. If we get something, great. If not, no big deal. Since I moved to Seattle in 2016, almost every winter except 2020 has had a nice snow event. I'm more than grateful for them. Later this year, I'm moving to New England. I hope some of my luck in the snow department follows me there.  

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This thing is far from decided.  Incredibly complex situation.

This gets said every time it might get cold here.  Apparently it’s very complex to get cold air west of the cascades.   

[snow_wizard]

Warmest max for SEA on the ECMWF is only 51.  Big change from the last few runs which showed two or three days over 55.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, RCola said:

Whelp, guess the prayers backfired immediately.   Silly me investing in the GFS.

 

In all seriousness, I'm not expecting much more from this winter. If we get something, great. If not, no big deal. Since I moved to Seattle in 2016, almost every winter except 2020 has had a nice snow event. I'm more than grateful for them. Later this year, I'm moving to New England. I hope some of my luck in the snow department follows me there.  

It's still totally undecided.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

This gets said every time it might get cold here.  Apparently it’s very complex to get cold air west of the cascades.   

This is even more delicate than usual. 

Some situations like Feb 1989 it's not hard at all, but it's often a bit complicated.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Warmest max for SEA on the ECMWF is only 51.  Big change form the last few runs which showed two or three days over 55.

A week or so ago we were seeing about a million EPS maps showing warmth and an “AL” pattern for mid month. Nice to see that isn’t panning out at very least. I will take more seasonable temps with frost chances any day.

[snow_wizard]

Another thing to remember is there are multiple shots at something good coming up.  The situation is evolving quickly.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A week or so ago we were seeing about a million EPS maps showing warmth and an “AL” pattern for mid month. Nice to see that isn’t panning out at very least. I will take more seasonable temps with frost chances any day.

We have a realistic shot at the month ending up below normal.  Big deal considering the Nino.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We have a realistic shot at the month ending up below normal.  Big deal considering the Nino.

We’ll see. Still 3-4 degrees above average in most of the Portland metro.

February 2020 was a little below normal around here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A week or so ago we were seeing about a million EPS maps showing warmth and an “AL” pattern for mid month. Nice to see that isn’t panning out at very least. I will take more seasonable temps with frost chances any day.

I was scalded for even talking about such a thing.

[High Desert Mat?]

How’s the SSW looking? Haven’t looked in past pages if it’s still on the table. Two days ago it had a full wind reversal, top 5 all time in fact, so I’m hoping it’s moved up in time. 

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, RCola said:

Whelp, guess the prayers backfired immediately.   Silly me investing in the GFS.

 

In all seriousness, I'm not expecting much more from this winter. If we get something, great. If not, no big deal. Since I moved to Seattle in 2016, almost every winter except 2020 has had a nice snow event. I'm more than grateful for them. Later this year, I'm moving to New England. I hope some of my luck in the snow department follows me there.  

Where in New England?

Just don’t turn into a greedy snow miser like everyone else from that region.  

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

How’s the SSW looking? Haven’t looked in past pages if it’s still on the table. Two days ago it had a full wind reversal, top 5 all time in fact, so I’m hoping it’s moved up in time. 

New 12z EPS is super bullish on it.

Seems every big +PNA/AL episode forces a SSW these days. Back in 2015 we had nonstop +PNA/AL and never got close to a SSW, but now just 2 weeks of it and the PV caves like a wet paper bag. Funny how cyclical these things can be.

[Randyc321]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I'm in the blue!

Me too, but mine is probably fake and yours won't be.  

[Randyc321]

4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I thought he was enjoying the beaches of Hawaii currently 

It didn't sound like he was enjoying them that much to me.  

[Phil]

54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another thing to remember is there are multiple shots at something good coming up.  The situation is evolving quickly.

The Pacific/STJ is screaming, though. Full on temper tantrum of westerly momentum. Basically no analogs with this kind of jet that also delivered cold to the PNW region in Feb. At least in the post WWII era.

[Randyc321]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seattle posters should be happy about this:

Yep, if it happened.  We shall see.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

It didn't sound like he was enjoying them that much to me.  

Nothing worse than going on a trip and having to see a bunch of poor people  

[Phil]

4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I thought he was enjoying the beaches of Hawaii currently 

Apparently a little too much.

 

[Randyc321]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That 6z EPS control was looking very interesting.  It pushed that Pacific energy so far south it allowed things to get pretty cold and the block to hold up longer.

Many of us aren't going to get excited with just cold.  Not again this year.

I know, I know.  First we need  the cold.  Blah, blah

A few days of needing a hoodie aren't going to be too exciting.

We need some real Central Sound snow to make this a memorable winter.  My memory of the recent cold snap will my gratefulness that my pipes didn't freeze.

End Rant

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Apparently a little too much.

 

we'll never hear the end of this one

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nothing worse than going on a trip and having to see a bunch of poor people  

Since we are off subject, the Seahawks just hired their new defensive coordinator!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS and GEFS.   The EPS has definitely trended cooler and closer to average.    Don't see anything significant ahead in terms of cold and snow but might be decent for the mountains at times. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we'll never hear the end of this one

Didn't even feel it here.  Or I missed it.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nothing worse than going on a trip and having to see a bunch of poor people  

Yeah... that is definitely not the issue you silly, spiteful, angry, overly-sensitive friend.   

The issue is the state letting public places be taken over by people who want to live "off the grid" by choice.  Because that is what's happening here.   

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Many of us aren't going to get excited with just cold.  Not again this year.

I know, I know.  First we need  the cold.  Blah, blah

A few days of needing a hoodie aren't going to be too exciting.

We need some real Central Sound snow to make this a memorable winter.  My memory of the recent cold snap will my gratefulness that my pipes didn't freeze.

End Rant

Yeah it was around 9 degrees when I took this picture last month…Other than the grass looking dehydrated it looked just like a typical 45 degree morning. Snow makes it memorable!! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it was around 9 degrees when I took this picture last month…Other than the grass looking dehydrated it looked just like a typical 45 degree morning. Snow makes it memorable!! 

I’m sure if you took a pic during the June 2021 heatwave it would look like a typical summer day (can’t really capture the trees being fried alive with a single photo). But you seem to have no shortage of excitement and nostalgia for that event  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sure if you took a pic during the June 2021 heatwave it would look like a typical summer day (can’t really capture the trees being fried alive with a single photo). But you seem to have no shortage of excitement and nostalgia for that event  

Randy’s soul craves extreme, midwest type weather but is trapped in a climate that deprives him of it.  

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sure if you took a pic during the June 2021 heatwave it would look like a typical summer day (can’t really capture the trees being fried alive with a single photo). But you seem to have no shortage of excitement and nostalgia for that event  

Bright sunny days!! 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Since we are off subject, the Seahawks just hired their new defensive coordinator!

Defense shouldn't be an issue now... still worried about offense though!

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Randy’s soul craves extreme, midwest type weather but is trapped in a climate that deprives him of it.  

9 degrees with bare ground happens in the Midwest somewhat frequently I’m sure. That’s a rare temp for around here.