February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Recency bias?    1972-73 and 1997-98 had arctic cold too and I think with more snow in the Seattle area.  What about the craziness in February 2019?  Do we just need some frosty nights this February to make this the strangest?  

I'm talking about Feb in a strong Nino.  Try to find one with a major cold event.

I was also talking about what happened in January.  That temperature swing was one of the wildest ever recorded in the month of January.  1935 is the only one I know of.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The mid-January blast was a couple orders of magnitude colder than anything we saw in February 2019 as well. Especially down here.

I'm still amazed at the low level cold. Blowing snow at 14 degrees was definitely not something I was expecting going into this winter. The numbers PDX put up were great: 41/21, 21/15, 23/17, 30/22, 27/20, 34/25.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm talking about Feb in a strong Nino.  Try to find one with a major cold event.

I was also talking about what happened in January.  That temperature swing was one of the wildest ever recorded in the month of January.  1935 is the only one I know of.

We will see what actually happens.    

But if history is any guide... me downplaying things based on face value of model runs is usually a good way to guarantee something big happens!

[snow_wizard]

EPS is on board for act 1.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We will see what actually happens.    

But if history is any guide... me downplaying things based on face value of model runs is usually a good way to guarantee something big happens!

Ohhhhh!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 45/39 day here. Chilliest day of the month so far. Heavy morning drizzle then mostly cloudy and cool in the afternoon.

Partly cloudy and 39 now, so could drop another degree or two before midnight.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We will see what actually happens.    

But if history is any guide... me downplaying things based on face value of model runs is usually a good way to guarantee something big happens!

Same thing goes with Phil it seems. You were both on team, “it will torch for sure” a week ago. I believed it too.

[snow_wizard]

I hope the EPS control looks like the OP at day 10.  It would be fun to see where it goes from there.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 45/39 day here. Chilliest day of the month so far. Heavy morning drizzle then mostly cloudy and cool in the afternoon.

Partly cloudy and 39 now, so could drop another degree or two before midnight.

Finally getting a frosty night here.  47/33 for the day so far.

[Slushy Inch]

While control and op were completely dry. EPS has some snow possible

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[Slushy Inch]

EPS is better 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ensemble has some 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Finally getting a frosty night here.  47/33 for the day so far.

Don’t know if we’ll get that lucky, but we already had a few last week. Fingers crossed though!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ensemble has some 

I’m in the light gray on the ensemble! Score!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m in the light gray on the ensemble! Score!

Got to keep the Feb streak going!

[Slushy Inch]

Here it comes.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Same thing goes with Phil it seems. You were both on team, “it will torch for sure” a week ago. I believed it too.

AL pattern is almost a guarantee... but appears to be quite a strange wrinkle this time.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

AL pattern is almost a guarantee... but appears to be quite a strange wrinkle this time.

What’s AL

[Slushy Inch]

One of the most insane cold onshore flow setups.

[snow_wizard]

Very cold onshore flow after day 10 on the control.

[snow_wizard]

Could the February magic dust make an appearance again?

 

[Meatyorologist]

I wish people would lay off @Phil in this instance, even though it is super funny how hard this is backfiring for him (and super fortunate for us!) Given the -ENSO and roided incoming STJ extension, he wasn't talking out of his ass. I believed him... Hell, I had those exact thoughts about the end of the month before he even posted his own.

@TT-SEA was pressing Jim earlier over why this is being described as unprecedented despite the recent Niño success. I think it's because this is coming out of nowhere with no real fundamentals supporting it. It literally feels like something magical is taking over the midrange. February magic! Not to mention the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16, which aren't even a decade old and are still pretty fresh in our minds as two consecutive Niño duds (2014-15 might have been a neutral year, but I'm counting it regardless since it was an extreme high end warm neutral, missing the mark by a month or two, and it strongly behaved like an El Niño over North America.) Undoubtedly this month has some subseasonal favoring in our current climate regime. On the flipside, that might mean an indication that our Summer will torch like recent years. Go figure.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wish people would lay off @Phil in this instance, even though it is super funny how had this is backfiring for him (and super fortunate for us!) Given the -ENSO and roided incoming STJ extension, he wasn't talking out of his a**. I believed him... Hell, I had those exact thoughts about the end of the month before he even posted his own.

I agree. I do remember him calling last December's blocking over a month in advance, and I feel like everything he has been saying has generally made sense (even if I don't understand all the acronyms).

[Meatyorologist]

WTAF

[Cascadia_Wx]

19 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What’s AL

It’s something you can call Paul Simon and I guess it’s also any 500mb/upper level pattern that at some point features an area of low pressure within 800 miles of the Aleutian island of your choice.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I agree. I do remember him calling last December's blocking over a month in advance, and I feel like everything he has been saying has generally made sense (even if I don't understand all the acronyms).

He gets a lot of big picture stuff right, but this winter has also been a reminder that in the face of an inherently chaotic natural system Phil, too, is phallible (we all are).

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Especially in a strong Nino February.  If this verifies it will take the cake for the most bizarre Nino winter I've ever seen.

It's still a long ways out but it will be quite remarkable if the PNW can win another cold blast with the upcoming SSW.

It used to be that SSW's mostly dropped the cold back east but it seems like in recent years that it's almost a given that the PNW gets at least some of the cold. Just wow.

[Cold Snap]

Managed to get to freezing just now! First freeze since the 20th of Jan!

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

40 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

Ironically that polar lobe is of a deeper cold source than the lobe which glanced us in January. Remember when I was saying it wouldn't get that cold again this winter, without a doubt?

GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble spread tonight might be insane.

[Ray]

Low of 31 when I woke up at 4am this morning.  Now up to 33.  Looks like it will be a decent day fr the drive to Bellingham to visit my daughter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wish people would lay off @Phil in this instance, even though it is super funny how hard this is backfiring for him (and super fortunate for us!) Given the -ENSO and roided incoming STJ extension, he wasn't talking out of his a**. I believed him... Hell, I had those exact thoughts about the end of the month before he even posted his own.

@TT-SEA was pressing Jim earlier over why this is being described as unprecedented despite the recent Niño success. I think it's because this is coming out of nowhere with no real fundamentals supporting it. It literally feels like something magical is taking over the midrange. February magic! Not to mention the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16, which aren't even a decade old and are still pretty fresh in our minds as two consecutive Niño duds (2014-15 might have been a neutral year, but I'm counting it regardless since it was an extreme high end warm neutral, missing the mark by a month or two, and it strongly behaved like an El Niño over North America.) Undoubtedly this month has some subseasonal favoring in our current climate regime. On the flipside, that might mean an indication that our Summer will torch like recent years. Go figure.

Two rules of thumb in recent years:

1. It is unwise to bet against snow in February.
2. It is unwise to bet against a torchy summer.

[Slushy Inch]

7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

You know it’s getting interesting when gradient keeper enters the chat.

[Slushy Inch]

Icon is a euro gfs compromise which may bring some snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly I see nothing interesting in the models right now. 

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly I see nothing interesting in the models right now. 

The first trough gets sends most of the cold from the east so it is going to limit the chill unfortunately. Fraser river valley actually does get some decent wind on gem. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly I see nothing interesting in the models right now. 

I respect your opinion.  Obviously the euro is struggling!

[Slushy Inch]

Ridge merger by the Aleutians! Let’s see where the super polar lobe ends up. Oo swing and miss.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I respect your opinion.  Obviously the euro is struggling!

Might have something transitory up your way. Only last night's GEM got it cool down here. Been a pretty blah month so far, a bit above average and somewhat drier than average despite constant clouds and drizzle.