February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Have you not played around with that site? I spend hrs on it looking up past storms an d depths. Goes back to 2002. It's very accurate. 

Can't speak for western Washington/Oregon, but looking back at some of the times when we had very deep snow (2-5 feet) it's numbers are usually off from what I observed by 6-12 inches. Still a great website but I wouldn't call it "very accurate", it is still quite impressive though, technology has come a LONG way. Lack of accuracy might just be a problem in my area, idk.

 

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

 

The best ENSO analogs for this spring/summer are looking like: 2016, 2010, 1998, 1995, 1983, 1973, and 1964. Most of those years were not very hot or dry.

1998 and 1973 aren’t the best QBO/WP matches, though.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Where is Phil?

I’ve been re-teaching myself SQL for a project I’m working on. I’m a procrastinator so I’d pushed it off to the last possible minute. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

1998 and 1973 aren’t the best QBO/WP matches, though.

What are the best matches in your opinion.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been re-teaching myself SQL for a project I’m working on. I’m a procrastinator so I’d pushed it off to the last possible minute. 

Glad to hear from you, was about to send for a wellness check.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, MossMan said:

Lots of red for Phil! 

Summer preview right there. Going to be a torrid year out here.

[Phil]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Glad to hear from you, was about to send for a wellness check.

30 mins ago I looked at models for the first time in almost a week, which is what prompted me to stop by and say hi. 

Looks like a textbook Jesse pattern coming up.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

The Groundhog (Phil) has returned! And it looks like his forecast on February 2nd was right, early spring!

 

Luckily for us in the pnw, Fil the beaver will end up being wrong with his early spring forecast!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Can't speak for western Washington/Oregon, but looking back at some of the times when we had very deep snow (2-5 feet) it's numbers are usually off from what I observed by 6-12 inches. Still a great website but I wouldn't call it "very accurate", it is still quite impressive though, technology has come a LONG way. Lack of accuracy might just be a problem in my area, idk.

 

I've spent a bunch of time over the last 8 years and for this area it is extremely accurate.  The last storm I just had it showed I got 4-8 inches and I had 5.5. Feb 19 it showed my peak depth 30-40 and I had 32.  It gives you a good idea for sure.

[Phil]

Pattern to open March is reminiscent of 2010 but shifted forward a few weeks. Similar to other waning niños that maintained -PMM.

I remember in 2010 we flipped to -PNA in March and never looked back. Torched nonstop for the next 6+ months here. Probably will be a repeat of that.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 hours ago, Christensen87 said:

lol of course right after I move east 

Thank you for your service 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What are the best matches in your opinion.

2010 is by far the best when considering recency. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I've spent a bunch of time over the last 8 years and for this area it is extremely accurate.  The last storm I just had it showed I got 4-8 inches and I had 5.5. Feb 19 it showed my peak depth 30-40 and I had 32.  It gives you a good idea for sure.

I guess it's just here that has inaccuracies, strange. I have no clue how that website works, but I assume it goes off a mix of observations and satellite? Perhaps there is a lack of observations here, so it's harder to make an accurate map for each location 

[GHweatherChris]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

30 mins ago I looked at models for the first time in almost a week, which is what prompted me to stop by and say hi. 

Looks like a textbook Jesse pattern coming up.

Bull 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

12z cfs was great!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Bull 

If you have a polygraph I’ll take it!

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

If you have a polygraph I’ll take it!

You will just say its broken

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You will just say its broken

 

If I failed I’d just say it’s an inexact science. Which is the truth.  

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

That storm was actually deeper the further south you went. Amounts peaked around Lewis County where they had 17-18" in Centralia. But the South Sound did quite well up through Tacoma, while I think Downtown Seattle had about 4" with the main event and then a couple inches with the initial c-zone. 

It's rare for Seattle to be at the epicenter of any event, outside of the odd c-zone. Geography pretty well sees to it with the shadowing and quick moderating power of the Sound. That's what made December 1990 so special, because they got clobbered in downtown while ironically SEA only got a fraction. March 2002 was another one. 

Yeah, I mean most locations right on the water at sea level are not great for snow in the Puget Sound region, obviously.

But Seattle tends to do a little better than some areas further south like Fife and Puyallup, mainly due to occasional CZs, Arctic fronts, and Fraser Valley seepage that stalls.

Outside of Dec 1990 and March 2002, see: Dec 1996, Nov 1985, Dec 1984, Nov 2006, Nov 2010, Jan 2012, Jan 2020, Feb 2021.

Shadowing isn't a huge issue most of the time, because that's greatest with straight westerly or SW flow, which isn't usually ideal for snow anyway.

[Front Ranger]

55 minutes ago, Phil said:

1998 and 1973 aren’t the best QBO/WP matches, though.

Agreed. 1998 is on the warmer end of the spectrum for the PNW as far as pure ENSO analogs.

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I mean most locations right on the water at sea level are not great for snow in the Puget Sound region, obviously.

But Seattle tends to do a little better than some areas further south like Fife and Puyallup, mainly due to occasional CZs, Arctic fronts, and Fraser Valley seepage that stalls.

Outside of Dec 1990 and March 2002, see: Dec 1996, Nov 1985, Dec 1984, Nov 2006, Nov 2010, Jan 2012, Jan 2020, Feb 2021.

Shadowing isn't a huge issue most of the time, because that's greatest with straight westerly or SW flow, which isn't usually ideal for snow anyway.

DT Seattle, U district, Duwamish waterway, Fife/Puyallup valleys tend to be the worst spots for snow in my limited life observations.
 

I’ll never forget driving through Fife valley with all those ghetto car dealerships and seeing snow on the hills a mere 300 feet above the swamp. I still live with that trauma. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON is still being stingy through the middle of next week.

[GHweatherChris]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

If I failed I’d just say it’s an inexact science. Which is the truth.  

which is why my previous comment of "bull " is accurate, its science

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pattern to open March is reminiscent of 2010 but shifted forward a few weeks. Similar to other waning niños that maintained -PMM.

I remember in 2010 we flipped to -PNA in March and never looked back. Torched nonstop for the next 6+ months here. Probably will be a repeat of that.

It snowed about 1” here in May that year. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

DT Seattle, U district, Duwamish waterway, Fife/Puyallup valleys tend to be the worst spots for snow in my limited life observations.
 

I’ll never forget driving through Fife valley with all those ghetto car dealerships and seeing snow on the hills a mere 300 feet above the swamp. I still live with that trauma. 

Seattle is very similar to Tacoma in that elevation is huge. Places that are 300'+ will average twice as much as places at sea level.

But Seattle sees a bit more Arctic air seepage and CZs. 

[Phishy Wx]

looks pretty meh-y, imo

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ICON is still being stingy through the middle of next week.

That model is silly, it don't even show the black hills getting snow and that area is over 2k feet lol. 

[Slushy Inch]

Another shift west early on/stronger trough early on. Not sure about implications.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That model is silly, it don't even show the black hills getting snow and that area is over 2k feet lol. 

Only 3" for me, and I'm above 4200 feet! ICON is short for Incompetent Clown Offering Nonsense

[Slushy Inch]

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

 

[Slushy Inch]

Excellent gfs run!

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Excellent gfs run!

Might be best run yet for CZ from Seattle to Everett.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Excellent gfs run!

It will probably snow on Monday evening but those maps showing widespread snow across all of the lowlands on Monday afternoon are just silly.    The actual temps shown by the GFS are not in line with widespread snow.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Might be best run yet for CZ around Seattle and just north.

Bottom frame is from a low moving inland.

[snow_wizard]

King County again on this run.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Meh, bad run for Oregon. Throw it out.

[DeepFriedEgg]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Excellent gfs run!

One word: phantom

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

King County again on this run.

I beginning to have a good feeling about this. King county is too. Models are probably going to underdo pscz.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

King County again on this run.

Little farther north than 18Z run.   Seems like any chance of snow for the Seattle area for this event comes down to the c-zone on Monday evening.