February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ever since you turned 60 you can't stay up late like the old days. Just like Jim.

I forget, how old is Andrew? Upper 30s? Although he kinda acts like he's in his angry mid 40s sometimes.

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is what it looked like one year ago today. We had a foot of snow at my place. This storm was incredible

[MossMan]

February 22nd has been a good date lately! Going to be just a few days off this year. 

Edited February 22 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like more disappointment on the models overnight. 

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like more disappointment on the models overnight. 

Good morning Andrew! I hope you have a bright wonderful day!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Good morning Andrew! I hope you have a bright wonderful day!! 

You too. I’m optimistic despite the inevitable letdown of the 12z runs. 

[westcoastexpat]

Western Washington NWS forecaster discussion:

The upper trough will move over western Washington on Monday for
cold air aloft and post-frontal onshore flow. Convective showers
will be around on Monday. Given the colder air aloft, snow levels
will likely drop towards the surface, particularly in heavier
showers, allowing for snow or rain/snow mix for areas of the
lowlands. Given the convective nature of the showers, it will be
hard to pinpoint the exact location of any rain/snow mix at this
time, but a favored area late Sunday night into Monday morning 
looks to be any convergence that develops in the vicinity of 
Snohomish County. With that said, given high temperatures in the 
40s, any lowland snow accumulations on grassy or elevated surfaces
will melt quickly. Showers look to continue into Tuesday with 
slight warming in temperatures. Ensembles then suggest another 
system bringing additional precipitation later Tuesday into 
Wednesday for western Washington. Overall, a cooler and wetter 
weather pattern is expected for much of next week.

[Phishy Wx]

whomp, whomp

[westcoastexpat]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll have to wait and see how the next couple of runs go.

The next couple of runs have not been good unfortunately.

[ShawniganLake]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like more disappointment on the models overnight. 

The lack of posts overnight was quite telling 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The lack of posts overnight was quite telling 

Still should be a nice change Monday and Tuesday.

[Snowlova]

Pullback always happens 2-4 days out usually. This is that critical period where models will either bounce back or keep trending bad

[Dave]

Holy carp. Beautiful clear skies with the exception of a couple of pink clouds this morning. No fog. No inversion. 39 degrees. Pretty sweet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Holy carp. Beautiful clear skies with the exception of a couple of pink clouds this morning. No fog. No inversion. 39 degrees. Pretty sweet.

Cloudy here in the Salem area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws going with 37 and 39 on Monday and Tuesday here. 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nws going with 37 and 39 on Monday and Tuesday here. 

How bout some snow? What did they sat about that?

[T-Town]

Some snow on the Olympics this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nws going with 37 and 39 on Monday and Tuesday here. 

Snow Monday and Monday night. No word on amount.

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like more disappointment on the models overnight. 

Looks snowy in the mountains which seems pretty good to me.

[Snownerd3000]

 Hopeful for what early next week may bring. 

 

[LowerGarfield]

Frosty outside. 34F.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Playing catch-up; sounds like a close call Sun night thru Tues AM - coast range should still be clear sailing Sunday midday I’m assuming?

[snow_wizard]

Yuck.  I think that pretty much says it all.

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks snowy in the mountains which seems pretty good to me.

It's something at least.

[snow_wizard]

Disappointing to see the trough is getting watered down and not lasting as long in the home stretch.  We've gotten kind of used to these things working out lately.  The SSW hasn't given us the high latitude magic that we had in January.

[MossMan]

So not even the first shade of grey for me anymore…That’s too bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First trough looks the same. Reality setting in for many. 2nd trough slightly better on the GFS/worse on the GEM.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nothing has changed here, looks like 3 or 4 chances for snow here next week. A bunch of 500ft snow levels. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

First trough looks great on gfs and the second is colder and faster. Still looks great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

First trough looks great on gfs and the second is colder and faster. Still looks great.

Yeah the 2nd one is further east. Looks good up there. When the whole thing swings in Saturday snow levels plummet in W Oregon. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

First trough looks great on gfs and the second is colder and faster. Still looks great.

For the Seattle area... there appears to be one window of opportunity for snow and that is with a c-zone on Monday behind initial trough.   GFS now shows that happening in the middle of the day on Monday instead of at night so temps are a little too warm.    After Monday the upper levels are too warm to support lowland snow.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Temps around the sound tuesday night are not much different on the 12z compared to the 00z Tuesday night.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is a step back in snow amounts overall but does throw Randy a bone on Monday!   

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For the Seattle area... there appears to be one window of opportunity for snow and that is with a c-zone on Monday behind initial trough.   GFS now shows that happening in the middle of the day on Monday instead of at night so temps are a little too warm.    After Monday the upper levels are too warm to support lowland snow.   

500-1000 ft during the day, 4-700ft at night would be close. The normal colder spots will get snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This pattern reminds me of 2007 2008. Almost no snow below about 600ft and a bunch above. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

500-1000 ft during the day, 4-700ft at night would be close. The normal colder spots will get snow.

But the entire week is not the same.   Upper levels are cold enough for snow on Monday afternoon into Tuesday.   After that its too warm.     The precip shown in the period when its cold enough for snow happens on Monday afternoon.      Its not like the snow levels will stay the same for a week.    

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like Alaska will turn very cold again. There have been some wild swings up there this winter. Fairbanks had one of their warmest February days on record recently. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Yikes... it's over... not looking good in the lowlands and also looking pretty meh here.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Actually nevermind, 06z GEFS was good! It's comiingg!

[MossMan]

How’s the ICON?