February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10:1 map, gives Eugene 34 inches lol.

[TT-SEA]

No idea if it means anything or will trend back... but the 06Z EPS and control shifted a bit north with the Monday system compared to its 00Z runs.     The 06Z runs pushed the warmer air north more effectively on Monday with less overrunning snow. 

EPS 00Z run on top and 06Z run in the bottom.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Pivotal added the HRDPS

[TT-SEA]

And the control run for Monday... 00Z vs 06Z runs.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is just a little bit different than the 12Z GFS in terms of lowland snow over the next 10 days.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Really dark and ominous clouds to the north of Mt bachelor, while bachelor is in the sun. The view looks amazing with all the fresh snow on the trees.

[umadbro]

27 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It will trend north

What brand of crystal ball you using and where did you purchase it?

[Randyc321]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Wind woke me up... so now I can post the 06Z GFS.   Most of this falls next Monday and Tuesday.

This is ridiculous.  The Ancient Aliens tv show is now more accurate than our weather models.

I used to get excited about snow maps, now you can't trust any of them.

Yes @TT-SEA, even the Euro is sucking it.

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Yesterday evening's slushy dusting raised my seasonal total to 14.8", which is better than I expected to do in a Niño winter.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Seems like it wouldn’t take much tweaking with the models to get snow maps back to being a lot more believable. Just a simple shift in the parameters of what temp the model thinks snow will stick at. In this day and age of such improved modeling overall it’s pretty amazing we’ve had to look at all these joke snow maps the last couple winters.

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It always amazes me how you guys will trade days of cold weather for a few hours of slushy snow. 

Either way the Thursday-Sunday period is LOCKED IN and looking great for all. Early next week could be OK for some folks up north or great for everyone if things get suppressed. Think about it. FROZEN GROUND IN MARCH. 

lol you say this like everyone’s voting on what’ll happen and that’ll actually influence the weather

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like it wouldn’t take much tweaking with the models to get snow maps back to being a lot more believable. Just a simple shift in the parameters of what temp the model thinks snow will stick at. In this day and age of such improved modeling overall it’s pretty amazing we’ve had to look at all these joke snow maps the last couple winters.

Models suck, we used to have the euro, when it showed snow we had a good chance and now it is doing gfs garbage.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

WRF-GFS for Oregon and Washington. I get as much snow as my son in south salem hills, about a foot. That's pretty rare if it verifies.

[DeepFriedEgg]

I don’t think PDX even hits freezing on the 12z GFS

[TacomaWx]

Hopefully it works out for most folks the potential is there. Like others said though….seems like the last couple winters the forecasting of snowfall especially in these marginal scenarios has gotten terrible. Gotta wait until 12-18 hours out and even then sometimes the agreement is horrible. 

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Models suck, we used to have the euro, when it showed snow we had a good chance and now it is doing gfs garbage.

Can you imaging trying to forecast from these as a professional?

I was a machinist for a long time before I moved into Mgmt.  Can't imagine doing your job with faulty measuring tools.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

lol you say this like everyone’s voting on what’ll happen and that’ll actually influence the weather

It is still possible to have a really grating or unreasonable opinion even if it’s about something outside of human control. Comes down to principle  

Edited February 28 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Can you imaging trying to forecast from these as a professional?

I was a machinist for a long time before I moved into Mgmt.  Can't imagine doing your job with faulty measuring tools.

I would give a wide and seemingly arbitrary range of unnecessarily specific percentages to cover my bases.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It is still possible to have a really grating or unreasonable opinion even if it’s about something outsidrof human control. Comes down to principle  

Yeah I definitely get what he’s saying. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with people just wanting it to snow in their backyard either and not caring about the statistical side of things. Some people like you or I might find a 39/28 day in early March statistically interesting….but most folks would probably rather see it dump a couple inches of wet snow and melt later that day. I can see the appeal of both. 

[MossMan]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM is just a little bit different than the 12Z GFS in terms of lowland snow over the next 10 days.

Looks good! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Can you imaging trying to forecast from these as a professional?

I was a machinist for a long time before I moved into Mgmt.  Can't imagine doing your job with faulty measuring tools.

Try doing my job with cheap Chinese parts. Most of the stuff we get is crap. Since covid parts have taken a major hit in quality.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I definitely get what he’s saying. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with people just wanting it to snow in their backyard either and not caring about the statistical side of things. Some people like you or I might find a 39/28 day in early March statistically interesting….but most folks would probably rather see it dump a couple inches of wet snow and melt later that day. I can see the appeal of both. 

Sure. I was making a wider point but in this specific case it just comes down to personal opinion like most things here do.

[SnarkyGoblin]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like it wouldn’t take much tweaking with the models to get snow maps back to being a lot more believable. Just a simple shift in the parameters of what temp the model thinks snow will stick at. In this day and age of such improved modeling overall it’s pretty amazing we’ve had to look at all these joke snow maps the last couple winters.

Yeah super frustrating.  It's hard to take anything seriously these days - even the euro has been remarkably wrong this year for Seattle, albeit much better than the gfs.

Maybe this is all done intentionally for meteorologist job-security. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Yeah super frustrating.  It's hard to take anything seriously these days - even the euro has been remarkably wrong this year for Seattle, albeit much better than the gfs.

Maybe this is all done intentionally for meteorologist job-security. 

It’s definitely never been a perfect science but a few years ago the euro was much more accurate than it used to be. It was significantly better than all the other models and didn’t have the “phantom coastal snowstorms” that show up almost every run. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s definitely never been a perfect science but a few years ago the euro was much more accurate than it used to be. It was significantly better than all the other models and didn’t have the “phantom coastal snowstorms” that show up almost every run. 

It’s really amazing to me to see even the Euro get worse with this stuff the last couple years. Total opposite direction I would expect the models to be moving in in terms of accuracy, especially given their rapid advancement in other areas in the same time period. It’s hard for me to wrap my head around.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

We might be entering a period of anomalous west coast troughing. This current period of troughing is quite extensive.

If that period is "This will continue into next January", then yes. The big picture bits are coming together for at least an active summer of some sorts with a SWesterly flow, but the past half decade of summer heat makes it an interesting soup.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

If that period is "This will continue into next January", then yes. The big picture bits are coming together for at least an active summer of some sorts with a SWesterly flow, but the past half decade of summer heat makes it an interesting soup.

It’s been more like a decade plus at this point.

[bainbridgekid]

39 mph gust earlier at SEA. Seems like a decent chance they break 40 mph at some point today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s been more like a decade plus at this point.

Feels like 30 years. I start getting anxiety about how hot the summer will get. I like nice warm weather but not hot garbage.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF not too keen on lowland snow with the anafront situation tomorrow morning... temps only drop into the upper 30s in the Seattle area on this run.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Feels like 30 years. I start getting anxiety about how hot the summer will get. I like nice warm weather but not hot garbage.

75-80 for highs and lows in the 50s like we used to get is so nice. With a rain or at least marine layer drizzle event every week or two. Paradise.

[MossMan]

Power beginning to surge a bit at work. Looks like the numbers are going up. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF not too keen on lowland snow with the anafront situation tomorrow morning... temps only drop into the upper 30s in the Seattle area on this run.

It will be a close call IMBY

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It will be a close call IMBY

Here too.

[TT-SEA]

Cannon Beach and Forks are big winners over the next 48 hours per the 12Z ECMWF.    Cannon Beach must be up to 200 inches of snow this winter just going by the ECMWF... but I have not verified.  

[TT-SEA]

Most of the coast is totally snowbound by early Saturday afternoon.   

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the coast is totally snowbound by early Saturday afternoon.   

That's it. I'm moving to the coast where they get all the snow.

[bainbridgekid]

12z Euro gives 40" of snow in the next 96 hours over the ocean West of Portland. Boats better start evacuating now.

There has to be a way to fix this nonsense.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the coast is totally snowbound by early Saturday afternoon.   

To be fair, the UW-WRF also has big numbers close to the coast.

I don't know what it is about the HRRR that makes it so much better than other models at estimating the snow level in these marginal events. I've been watching it the past few days and it keeps getting the rain changeovers at Snoqualmie Pass correct, whereas pretty much everything else is swinging and missing. 

Once we have the RRFS ensemble we may just be able to ignore everything else, assuming they tune that one the same as the HRRR (which I have low confidence in, but we can hope...). 
 

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Power beginning to surge a bit at work. Looks like the numbers are going up. 

Still climbing!