March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil has me thinking there is hope for cold neutral or a week Nina.    The Nino will be gone soon but that doesn't necessarily mean it will continue to crash hard all the way to a strong Nina.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw article online that the cherry blossons in DC are peaking and its the second earliest ever there.

So that reminded me to check out the cherry blossoms at UW in Seattle... and wow they are early too.    They say they will peak in March this year and they look like they are getting close already.  

[Deweydog]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil has me thinking there is hope for cold neutral or a week Nina.    The Nino will be gone soon but that doesn't necessarily mean it will continue to crash hard all the way to a strong Nina.

I'm no expert but I think the Nina would last longer than a week.

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I'm no expert but I think the Nina would last longer than a week.

It will be our week to shine! Hopefully during Christmas! 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil has me thinking there is hope for cold neutral or a week Nina.    The Nino will be gone soon but that doesn't necessarily mean it will continue to crash hard all the way to a strong Nina.

I’m not predicting such an outcome, but it’s a distinct possibility. Though keep in mind I’m not an unbiased observer..I have a vested interest in a weaker ENSO outcome.

It’s also very possible we end up with a strong single year niña like 1988/89. The transition from -QBO to +QBO this summer/fall (westerly shear descending to/through 30mb) will favor a cleaner La Niña transition, just as the descending -QBO last year helped the El Niño regime establish itself early and with ease.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw article online that the cherry blossons in DC are peaking and its the second earliest ever there.

So that reminded me to check out the cherry blossoms at UW in Seattle... and wow they are early too.    They say they will peak in March this year and they look like they are getting close already.  

UHI is a big contributor to earlier bloom times in DC, though. Some of the springs in the 1920s/30s would have produced earlier peak bloom dates had they occurred today.

The cherry blossoms in our neighborhood are still ~ 2 weeks from peak bloom. The cherry blossom in our yard didn’t have any blooms until a couple days ago.

Downtown DC is much farther along, despite being only 9 miles away. Which is what happens when overnight lows are 10+ degrees warmer night after night.

[Phil]

Man that sun is getting STRONG. Thought it was in the upper 50s when I was outside earlier but it’s still in the 40s at 3PM!

Weird to have winter like high temps when all surfaces are so freaking warm to the touch. Walked thru the grass barefoot and it was downright toasty. And was actually hot getting into the car earlier.

Gonna enjoy the cool air while I still can. It’s on borrowed time.

[Phil]

 

[TT-SEA]

No frosty nights on the ECMWF and EPS.   Looks generally close to climo... just a little cooler than average. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I see PDX had a post 5 p.m. high temp at 76 yesterday... equaling the Saturday high temp.  

You’re right, back to back 76’s at PDX. Today is suppose to reach 77. Hopefully it can make it.

[Phil]

FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination.

Recent examples:

1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña.

1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06).

1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era).

I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No frosty nights on the ECMWF and EPS.   Looks generally close to climo... just a little cooler than average. 

Looks like tomorrow is still looking awesome…Might take the day off and keep working on the yard! 

[TT-SEA]

Much cooler today and it's still 64 in North Bend and an absolutely gorgeous day.

SEA is 61 now which is the high for the day per the ECMWF and EPS.    Cool bias has been back recently.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination.

Recent examples:

1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña.

1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06).

1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era).

I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.

I thought that was 1998? 

[Front Ranger]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No frosty nights on the ECMWF and EPS.   Looks generally close to climo... just a little cooler than average. 

And Jim disappears again...we're getting close to the time that he often takes off until late summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination.

Recent examples:

1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña.

1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06).

1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era).

I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.

I don’t care about global temps. Just my temp. 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I thought that was 1998? 

I’m talking about baseline global temps (after removing the ENSO component). Yes there was a prolific spike in 1998 due to the El Niño, but temperatures never recovered to pre-niño values during/after the 3+ year Niña that followed. Same thing after the 1973/74 -1975/76 Niña.

Keep in mind the reason the atmosphere cools during La Niña is because more heat is being absorbed into the oceans (largely stored in the IPWP and off-equator regions). Vice versa for warming during El Niño (heat built up/stored in the IPWP is released into the atmosphere, thus warming global temps).

This is why La Niña dominated before/during the MWP (and even more-so during the Holocene thermal maximum), and why the abrupt switch to the most Niño-dominant centennial base state in 11,000+ years in the 1300s-1500s culminated in the LIA.

The immediate effect of El Niño is to warm the atmosphere, yes. But given enough time (ie: decades to centuries of El Niño dominance) the system will begin to cool as the tropical oceans gradually lose heat.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t care about global temps. Just my temp. 

Your temp will suffer the same fate, my brother.

The next intradecadal IPWP extension (and reversal of Hadley-Walker intensity ratio) will begin any year now. When it does, the seasonal tendencies of the last decade will invert, with western Canada/PNW blowtorching focused in the winter/spring months, and AL/+PNA/+TNH becoming the low frequency mean-state.

I don’t control any of this. Just giving a heads up.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

65 currently, 5 degrees warmer than we were at this time yesterday which later had a high of 66, so 71 is possible today! Would be nice to get a 50 degree spread

[Cold Snap]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil has me thinking there is hope for cold neutral or a week Nina.    The Nino will be gone soon but that doesn't necessarily mean it will continue to crash hard all the way to a strong Nina.

I feel like a weak Nina would be better for getting arctic air and snow into the region than a strong one. Though a moderate one would probably work out as well.

[TT-SEA]

SEA at 64 on the hour and its 68 now in North Bend.

ECMWF/EPS are going to end up too cool again today.    They showed 67 the last two days at SEA and reality was 74 and 71.

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And Jim disappears again...we're getting close to the time that he often takes off until late summer.

He will probably be sticking around this summer with a Nina incoming... or his break might be pretty short.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Temps as of 2pm with a few hours left of peak heating. Forest Grove leading the way at 74.

 

[MossMan]

Positive spats! Have your Zyrtec handy! 

[westcoastexpat]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination.

Recent examples:

1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña.

1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06).

1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era).

I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.

This group is selfish. No one is willing to root for a Nino winter to ward off climate warming. They're going to wish for a Nina every year they are alive.

[TT-SEA]

Still made it to 70 in North Bend.

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

This group is selfish. No one is willing to root for a Nino winter to ward off climate warming. They're going to wish for a Nina every year they are alive.

Luckily what people root for is completely irrelevant to nature.  

[bainbridgekid]

3pm and it's just 54 at the Mukilteo Ferry Terminal with a cold North wind and 65 at my house 5 miles away. 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAMUKIL45

Amazing how big a difference being along the water can make in situations like this. Glad it works the other way during snow events.

[TT-SEA]

PDX at 72 on the hour... easily locking up their 4th 70+ day in a row  

[TT-SEA]

Blossoms look even more impressive in the mid-day sun... beautiful afternoon on the UW campus.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Up to 69 at my home station now, which is already a 48 degree spread on the day!  In the 50s at Mount Bachelor currently, snow has really softened up. Today's the kind of day you could ski in blue jeans and a t-shirt 

 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination.

Recent examples:

1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña.

1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06).

1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era).

I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.

Let's recap why Phil wants us to root against La Niña:

-La Niña will prevent La Niña from happening again, so in order to get La Niña we have to root against La Niña. So we can have more La Niña in the future. Makes sense.

-La Niña is actually an endothermic process which burns the Earth. I mean the effects of this warming aren't noticeable for centuries but think of how hard he just OWNED you with the Thermodynamics 101 lesson. But don't worry about CO2 emissions, we don't really understand that or something lmao

-If next winter is a La Niña he might CRY and that would make us feel bad  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDX at 72 on the hour... easily locking up their 4th 70+ day in a row  

PDX up to 74 now as of 4pm. Forest Grove really flexing its today leading the way at 77.

[TT-SEA]

Long range wishful thinking.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Long range wishful thinking.  

After a week or 2 of rain, this would be awesome. Orchard/mason bee/garden season. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Let's recap why Phil wants us to root against La Niña:

-La Niña will prevent La Niña from happening again, so in order to get La Niña we have to root against La Niña. So we can have more La Niña in the future. Makes sense.

-La Niña is actually an endothermic process which burns the Earth. I mean the effects of this warming aren't noticeable for centuries but think of how hard he just OWNED you with the Thermodynamics 101 lesson. But don't worry about CO2 emissions, we don't really understand that or something lmao

-If next winter is a La Niña he might CRY and that would make us feel bad  

lol, correct except for the timescale. The warming following a 3+ year niña is evident inside 5 years following the event. But if a more +ENSO tendency follows, it becomes statistically null and void. 

Longer term warming/cooling via ENSO variability is indeed largely on the centennial scale due to the high degree of multidecadal variability in ENSO behavior.

Also, ENSO is just one of several modes of internal variability in ocean/atmosphere circulation/heat transports (all of which affect global climate significantly). We follow ENSO because it’s short term/noticeable, and high amplitude.

However, there are other, longer term modes of internal variability (mostly involving the IPWP/seasonality and axisymmetric variability in the z-circulations) that actually have more profound effects on global climate than ENSO does. But they’re understudied and overlooked because they operate on such long timescales that we don’t necessarily realize they exist.

[TT-SEA]

3rd straight 76 at PDX.

Only 66 at SEA today... 72 in North Bend.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Let's recap why Phil wants us to root against La Niña:

-La Niña will prevent La Niña from happening again, so in order to get La Niña we have to root against La Niña. So we can have more La Niña in the future. Makes sense.

-La Niña is actually an endothermic process which burns the Earth. I mean the effects of this warming aren't noticeable for centuries but think of how hard he just OWNED you with the Thermodynamics 101 lesson. But don't worry about CO2 emissions, we don't really understand that or something lmao

-If next winter is a La Niña he might CRY and that would make us feel bad  

Honestly, DCA is going to melt either way as the East Coast climate becomes increasingly subtropical up to Cape Cod or so. The weenie handwringing back there over ENSO state is an antiquated formality at this point. Snowy winters there are probably a thing of the past, and cold ones definitely are.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Honestly, DCA is going to melt either way as the East Coast climate becomes increasingly subtropical up to Cape Cod or so. The weenie handwringing back there over ENSO state is an antiquated formality at this point. Snowy winters there are probably a thing of the past, and cold ones definitely are.

I support the southeast China-fication of the eastern seaboard.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I support the southeast China-fication of the eastern seaboard.

It just hurts me to see so much nervously optimistic anticipation on the Eastern weather communities each and every fall. They need to give up the ghost already. George Washington ain't coming back and crossing the Delaware any time soon.