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April 2024 Weather in the PNW

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Posted by iFred,

Looking for folks who would be interested in playing host to some sensors, radios, and small computers. I would be collecting atmospheric conditions, gases, radiation, and emergency pages sent out to first responders. This would be a part of what might be an open mesonet network of stations that provide more data than your typical weather station. As host to the station you would have access to the data coming from it as well as the data collected from other stations. Send me a DM if y
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Posted by SilverFallsAndrew,

Severe thunderstorm in Klamath County 
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Posted by T-Town,

Some good clouds this evening. 
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Blizzard777
Blizzard777

Pretty cool show on Rainier this afternoon!!!

Blizzard777
Blizzard777

Helping some folks out through New Hope church. it’s  a program called Neighbor to Neighbor. I love it and a cool way to give back in our world although I think I receive much more from the experience

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Went out to Los Alamos this evening. 

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Sunriver Snow Zone Veteran

Sunriver Snow Zone

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

IMG_1651.thumb.jpeg.084cc5fbbb8e9111521ddf537f47c7b6.jpegResized_20240408_135356_1712602722584.thumb.jpeg.5ea458374cd428a7ebc453ba298ada6a.jpeg

It was spectacular to see the solar flare (CME) timed well with the eclipse (that red dot at the bottom). A very rare event, we were incredibly lucky to see it. Your photo doesn't do any justice but during the eclipse you could see that bright dot sticking out, really added to the already spectacular eclipse. 

 

We went to Cherokee village in Arkansas to see the eclipse, we got 4m13s of clear totality! Learned my lesson from previous eclipses that having my camera out during the eclipse is a waste of precious limited time, because the photos usually suck unless you have a really good setup, so I didn't take any pics.  

 

Next time I plan to see an eclipse is the July 2028 one in the outback of Australia, at this point I don't think I'll try to see the 2026 Iceland eclipse. For anyone here who hasn't seen a total eclipse, please try to see one as soon as you have a chance, it is worth every dollar and minute of your time to view it.  It is the most beautiful and spectacular event you can witness, it doesn't last long but it's so worthit.

  • Like 6

Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is much nicer on Saturday though. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_22.png

00Z GEM came around to the GFS... which also was improved.   Some good news on this stormy night!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Super Nina incoming

Blizzards of epic proportions, Winter 24-25

You just predict the utter extremes which is pointless... like your summer forecast.    

Also a super Nina can mean an endless parade of storms and raging zonal flow.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM came around to the GFS... which also was improved.   Some good news on this stormy night!

Gutters are working overtime here right now! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Phishy Wx Grand Master

Phishy Wx

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You just predict the utter extremes which is pointless... like your summer forecast.    

Also a super Nina can mean an endless parade of storms and raging zonal flow.   

summer is still a couple months away, yet to be seen how it plays out

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

WA Cascades getting a nice dump of welcome snow. 

Raining at Snoqualmie Pass and Stevens Pass.    Higher peaks getting snow though. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

summer is still a couple months away, yet to be seen how it plays out

And next winter is even farther away.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

summer is still a couple months away, yet to be seen how it plays out

Most likely fairly depressing. Hopefully we don't get into the linebackers for 90F+ burgers.

  • Sun 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Sunriver Snow Zone Veteran

Sunriver Snow Zone

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Most meaningful snowpack occurs well above pass level, Tim.

Most meaningful snowpack SHOULD occur in my backyard!!

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Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Most meaningful snowpack occurs well above pass level, Tim.

Don't know how much actually fell last night but the 00Z ECMWF showed it was focused on north Cascades. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-2707200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunriver Snow Zone Veteran

Sunriver Snow Zone

Posted
Posted

Super record extreme super nina is coming, there'll be -5c temp anomalies!

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Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't know how much actually fell last night but the 00Z ECMWF showed it was focused on north Cascades. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-2707200.png

What a blessing for that previously forsaken region. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Super record extreme super nina is coming, there'll be -5c temp anomalies!

Is there any point to these extreme predictions from you and @Phishy Wx?    Doesn't seem like it.  

Its going to be 140 degrees this summer and every city and every tree will burn and then we will have a 'Day After Tomorrow' instant ice age next winter.     Got it.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Tell @Port Angeles Foothiller to take his rain shadow back! 

We have our rain shadow resident who complains about not getting as much rain as he wants, and our rain forest resident who complains about getting more rain than he wants. A matched set!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

.13” so far on the day, 1.69” for the month. 
Currently raining and 42 degrees. 
Wonder if we will roll with a -PNA until the end of the 2024/25 winter season. 

 

IMG_4174.jpeg

IMG_4175.jpeg

IMG_4173.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Nino is dead.  

wkxzteq_anm.gif

I’ve been digging thru the ENSO progression of every WW-II year looking for failure modes of developing niñas, and I think the best we can hope for now is a weak niña featuring more of a 2 wave low pass signature (IPWP and W-IO/ATL). There’s still a chance this thing fails to gain amplitude after Oct/Nov and weakens thru the winter.

But I’ve lost hope at avoiding the niña altogether. And given the QBO transitioning over summer and in-situ -PMM, a rapid crash like 2010 is probably the more likely outcome.

But..technically anything is possible. Mother Nature built the sandbox, we just play in it. Who knows what other modes of variability exist within the system but haven’t been observed yet due to our limited data sample (even 200yrs would probably only cover ~ 40% of change-EOFs possible in today’s climate).

That’s the main limitation of analog methods of seasonal forecasting. Can’t solve a puzzle if you’re missing half of the pieces.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You just predict the utter extremes which is pointless... like your summer forecast.    

Also a super Nina can mean an endless parade of storms and raging zonal flow.   

Yeah 1975/76 was possibly the strongest niña of the 20th century and it was relatively mediocre.

Even had +QBO/-PMM and healthy W1 IPWP signal. But it’s possible the niña got so strong it essentially shut down the intraseasonal/MJO components that are crucial to amplifying wave activity. Which would explain why the PV was so outrageously strong that entire winter.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

You know the cold season is on its deathbed when it’s pushing 80°F despite mostly cloudy skies.

Might’ve had our last sub-60°F high until Oct/Nov.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ve been digging thru the ENSO progression of every WW-II year looking for failure modes of developing niñas, and I think the best we can hope for now is a weak niña featuring more of a 2 wave low pass signature (IPWP and W-IO/ATL). There’s still a chance this thing fails to gain amplitude after Oct/Nov and weakens thru the winter.

But I’ve lost hope at avoiding the niña altogether. And given the QBO transitioning over summer and in-situ -PMM, a rapid crash like 2010 is probably the more likely outcome.

But..technically anything is possible. Mother Nature built the sandbox, we just play in it. Who knows what other modes of variability exist within the system but haven’t been observed yet due to our limited data sample (even 200yrs would probably only cover ~ 40% of change-EOFs possible in today’s climate).

That’s the main limitation of analog methods of seasonal forecasting. Can’t solve a puzzle if you’re missing half of the pieces.

It’s funny how everyone on here loves Nina’s and you come in here with “best we can hope for.”

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s funny how everyone on here loves Nina’s and you come in here with “best we can hope for.”

The love for niñas is understandable but misguided.

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Port Angeles Foothiller Veteran

Port Angeles Foothiller

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

It was spectacular to see the solar flare (CME) timed well with the eclipse (that red dot at the bottom). A very rare event, we were incredibly lucky to see it. Your photo doesn't do any justice but during the eclipse you could see that bright dot sticking out, really added to the already spectacular eclipse. 

 

We went to Cherokee village in Arkansas to see the eclipse, we got 4m13s of clear totality! Learned my lesson from previous eclipses that having my camera out during the eclipse is a waste of precious limited time, because the photos usually suck unless you have a really good setup, so I didn't take any pics.  

 

Next time I plan to see an eclipse is the July 2028 one in the outback of Australia, at this point I don't think I'll try to see the 2026 Iceland eclipse. For anyone here who hasn't seen a total eclipse, please try to see one as soon as you have a chance, it is worth every dollar and minute of your time to view it.  It is the most beautiful and spectacular event you can witness, it doesn't last long but it's so worthit.

We could all see the CME with the naked eye. It was awesome. I only had just under 3 mins of totality. This was my second one and was incredible as expected. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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DeepFriedEgg Experienced

DeepFriedEgg

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Neutral may seriously be the best ENSO state now for snow lovers

Is and always has been if I'm not mistaken. La nina has too many onshore flow events which just don't cut it for people not living in their mountain resorts above 1000' west of the cascades.

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Timmy Supercell Grand Master

Timmy Supercell

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Phil said:

You know the cold season is on its deathbed when it’s pushing 80°F despite mostly cloudy skies.

Might’ve had our last sub-60°F high until Oct/Nov.

Yup we were low 70's this afternoon with maybe a few minutes of filtered sunshine. 

Even the low temperatures have taken a turn recently. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17
Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 18
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Is and always has been if I'm not mistaken. La nina has too many onshore flow events which just don't cut it for people not living in their mountain resorts above 1000' west of the cascades.

2021-22, 2016-17, 2010-11, 2008-09, 1995-96, 1988-89, 1971-72, 1970-71, 1964-65, 1955-56, 1949-50...a lot of really nice winters and historic events happened with Ninas. 

But there definitely is a tendency for neutral/+ENSO to be better further south in the PNW, and -ENSO to be better further north.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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