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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


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58 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good to hear from you buddy!  A few of us on here were hoping you were doing alright given the whole COVID-19 situation ongoing.  Glad to see ya back!

Thanks Tom. My time away wasn’t really specific to anything. Just needed a break during this weird year. Ironically though, I am awaiting the results on a COVID test. I’ve been exposed and just want to make sure I don’t have it. Crazy times! 

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

As seasons transition I'm honoring those who serve the public good through service in law enforcement and fire & rescue. Acting as a shield between us and harm. Some giving their lives serving and

Pounding at DSM airport!! .3 to .4 on snowboards ,, probably can muster a wet inch before sunrise.

Posted Images

The Euro is much farther south and weaker with next week's storm.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The switch has been flipped and we've gone from mostly 80s to 40s/50s. Congrats to everyone who got snow, even Omaha got in on the action. I'm kinda glad nothing happened here because I woke up at noon 🥴

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

But what Tom showed is NOT ridiculous wx for those regions at the end of Oct. It might be if, say MSP beat their 30" storm like they got at Halloween in '91. They can and do get huge snows up that way this time of year. Now, if you or Tom or I got that then we'd really be talking epic stuff. Anyhow, I don't need to fast-forward into winter just yet, but I would like a good old fashioned autumn rainer tracking through the OHV. Not just to increase confidence in the new LRC for the winter, but we really could use a soaking around here. Tom mentioned something about an OHV low, but tbh I'm not seeing anything but I don't model watch until it's legit storm mode season.

I was being more unspecified to the entire central us region as a whole. The central CONUS in going to go through a cold wave to close the month that is/looks to be pretty special in a lot of ways.

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Cloudy skies w showers advancing eastward per radar. Temp at around 55F.

Note: Tomorrow will be a very chilly day w highs only into the 4os w areas of morning frost. I would not be surprised if a few wet snowflakes mix in tomorrow evening w those rainshowers as temps drop back down into the 30s.

BTW: leaves are starting to fall off from trees here in SEMI, so I'd give it another week to enjoy the colors.

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Currently getting a few flurries. Amazing how they're able to reach the ground with our DP of 17. 33.1*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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20 minutes ago, iFred said:

https://theweatherforums.com - let me know if that works for you folks. If I don't see any problems, we are going full https later today.

Looks fine.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I'd be very disgruntled at Euro showing me right on the rain-snow line all day Thursday if it wasn't still four days out.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 hours ago, St Paul Storm said:

Thanks James! Hope you’re enjoying the brisk conditions here today. I raked leaves this morning for about 2 hours and I was frozen. 

We're doing the same today. Mowed the lawn and raked leaves. This flip has been crazy. My phone says 32° currently!

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NAMs are trending way down in terms of QPF with the Tuesday clipper, in a similar fashion to yesterday's pitiful clipper. This may be the beginning of the end.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2-4” of snow in the point for Tuesday. Reality really setting in. I’ve been busting my butt in the yard all day to prepare. Things really turning towards winter quickly! Warm ground temps will likely cut down on accums, but if it snows hard enough it’s gonna stick. 

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This is reminiscent of last October with very early snows! But we know how the rest of the winter went. It was a nice winter for me, but not so much for those who love snow and cold. But it’s unlikely it will play nearly the same. 
 

I actually ended up seeing the first flakes beginning around 9:30 am. Later just before noon it snowed pretty good for a bit, but there was no accumulation of snow and just a trace of liquid since my last post.

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Temps look to warm-up big time by weeks end next week (flirting w 70F both Th n Fri), fortunately, this mild air looks to be transient. By the following weekend, temps take a nosedive. This will be a great opportunity to do last minute yard work.

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Temps will drop here tanite w another frost looking likely by morning. Lows expected to fall to near freezing or below and there could also be a few spots where 20s could be possible.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z EC showing a very cold and snowy second half of Oct.  Lots of snow the next 10 days.

1603908000-bRv5wokPLlQ.png

There it is. Very nice. Winter in basically 8 days for most of us with or without snow.

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Temps will drop here tanite w another frost looking likely by morning. Lows expected to fall to near freezing or below and there could also be a few spots where 20s could be possible.

GRR's AFD said they've ended frost/freeze season so no more headlines. Monday should be our first truly raw day around here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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17 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Because its "pretty". 🤗

Like a snowflake.....

 

Screenshot_20201018-194841_Brave.jpg

DFW snow in October would be insane.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

DFW snow in October would be insane.

Exactly. I thought insane was a decent word too. Winter in 8 days....wow. One way or another, its pretty real even if it doesn't snow. Getting exactly what I asked for.

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An actually good AFD from FGF, that's rare. 

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020

Several chances for snow are forecast within the long term,
particularly around Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, and late this weekend
into early next week. The colder than average temperature pattern is
also likely to continue.

Much of the northern CONUS will continue to be under the influence
of upper troughing throughout next week and potentially into the
following week. Varying solutions within the ensemble and
deterministic suites have their own flavor of how amplified segments
within the upper trough becomes along with passing embedded
shortwaves. However general consensus is to bring a shot of precip
mainly in the form of snow with each passing shortwave.

General consensus is to have the first shortwave move east across
the area around Tuesday. There are many similarities between this
wave and Saturday`s wave, which means there still remains some
inherent uncertainty revolving around exact placement, timing, and
intensity of this upcoming clipper. But as it stands now, there is a
general 1-4 swath forecast over the region, with best chances for
highest amounts in the higher elevations of west-central Minnesota.
Probably the biggest difference between this upcoming clipper and
Saturday`s clipper is the lack of mesoscale forcing expected, or
rather mesoscale forcing (fgen) is likely further displaced within
southern MN. This typically increases trust in modeled QPF,
although there still is some spread on the order of 0.1-0.25 inches
of QPF within ensemble members, which could translate to giving or
taking 1-3 inches in any given area.

The next wave following more of a hybrid clipper-WY low system is
progged to traverse the Dakotas into northern MN around
Thursday/Friday. This system is expected to have more moisture
content associated with it in addition to better synoptic and added
mesoscale forcing. This would increase the upper range for snow
potential, with even some models advertising a scary amount of snow
well exceeding warning criteria. However a very large amount of
uncertainty looms over this forecast with large spread in placement
and amount of snow. Therefore, not buying into these large snow
amounts at all..yet.

Finally, several ensemble and deterministic members are starting to
suggest a CO low type system to move into the Upper Midwest late
next weekend into early next week. An even further amount of
uncertainty accompanies this potential system, although it does
increase the general potential for precipitation including snowfall.
That is all I am confident in saying regarding this potential system.

With the general upper troughing allowing polar type air to dive
into the upper CONUS, below average temps will be likely at least
through late next week and probably beyond. This increases the
chance for snow with each shot of precip, but there is still some
influence from a mid to late Oct sun in determining ptypes
diurnally, ie better chance for snow at night with rain/snow during
the day.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR's AFD said they've ended frost/freeze season so no more headlines. Monday should be our first truly raw day around here.

Thanks for the update amigo! 👊

Raw is the correct word to use my friend as temps will not recover from the 40s for highs, along w some wet weather and would not be surprised if a wet snowshower gets mixed in, especially towards the evening hours.

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9 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 

Exactly......Enjoy it! Go outside and breathe that cold, snowy air.

Tbh: I truly enjoy when snow is expected to develop and you can just smell the snow in the air, prior to its arrival. Great feeling!

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

An actually good AFD from FGF, that's rare. 

 

Nice write-up.

That is what I like to see during the cold, Winter months, especially during Christmas time. Unlike last year when my highs were in the 50s on Christmas Eve.......🤨

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Currently, it is a very raw evening w readings in the low 40s and light drizzle. There is a breeze out there as well, which gives my area a wcf in the 30s. Dreary nite indeed.

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28 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 

It's snowing lightly here in Southwest Omaha... nothing is sticking but it looks amazing watching the flakes fall in the glow of the street lights. 

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0.27" qpf from this evening's CF. Perhaps 0.6" on the week around here. Better than OH or IN I guess.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Had another quick one  to two tenths on my way to work. The snow from y'day morning surprisingly made it all the way to mid afternoon when the sun  came out, so they ground must not be that warm. Pavement is different deal.  It's odd seeing snow events back to back like this in OCT. Looks like another round around sunrise.

PXL_20201019_042646176.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Shall we start our 1st storm thread of this early cold season???  Looks like raw guidance is upping the ante for our MN members...latest 00z Euro Op/EPS showing high end advisory???

3.png

2.png

 

 

00z Ukie...

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

00z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png

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Point bumped up to 3-5” with heavy snow tomorrow. I’d go with the lower end of that based on a variety of things. But we’ll see. Looks fairly promising based on the relatively good model consensus. 
 

Tom I’d say fire up the first thread! 

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37 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Point bumped up to 3-5” with heavy snow tomorrow. I’d go with the lower end of that based on a variety of things. But we’ll see. Looks fairly promising based on the relatively good model consensus. 
 

Tom I’d say fire up the first thread! 

My 2 concerns here are speed of the system and surface temps. Those could kill totals here. Doesn't really matter, sunshine and highs near 40 on Wednesday are going to kill everything off anyway.

 

Edit: Wow, didn't even see those 00Z runs. Guess it got colder at the surface because previously it was showing all rain for SoDak.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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6Z Euro

Euro 9.png

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Started a thread for tomorrow's system

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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38 minutes ago, Money said:

How’s everyone doing? Site looks great 

Not bad, hbu?  Taking it day by day and thankful for my health.  How was your summer?  I think Appleton got hit pretty good a few times.  Excited about this winter?

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Des Moines NWS on this next weekend system:

A vigorous short wave is on track to move across Iowa sometime Sunday
and bring the next chance for precipitation. Thermal profiles would
suggest this would be an accumulating snow event for parts of Iowa
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Moderate snow is being reported under the snow band moving across Iowa this morning.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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