Jesse Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, El_Nina said: 00z GFS showing less than 0.2" of precipitation here the next 10 days. Precip deficits will start to become a concern again soon Andrew. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Precip deficits will start to become a concern again soon Andrew. At this point I have nothing further to add. My brow is furrowed. 2 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Precip deficits will start to become a concern again soon Andrew. It's already been a concern for almost a year. We were already in moderate drought by the end of December 2019 for much of northwest Oregon at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 We’re f*cked. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Sunday: PDX high temp 42. I like it. Looks like upper 30’s at my place! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Looks like upper 30’s at my place! Just like October 1949. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 No hoar frost October cancel??? 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 53 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Models giveth(sometimes), and then they taketh away(often). It is never too late for a rug pull. 1 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Gotta say 43 for a day time high in October is still pretty cold last time I checked. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Sunset over the Nooksack River. 7 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 45 degrees out there and feel downright cold! Goes to show how the recent torch is going to make this cold snap seem all the colder. It appears the models are setting on a moderately cold solution now, but there is still a chance for a 12z ECMWF type situation to verify. That run was really cold when you look at the surface temperatures that were being forecast, but it was only a bit more impressive of a 500mb pattern that what is shown on tonight's GFS. I still think a lot of places will see lows in the mid 20s on Sunday and Monday. One interesting trend on the models is to continue to amplify the ridge at 140W on Monday of next week. Looks like a one day extension of the cold is probably in the works and maybe more. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Looks plenty breezy :) 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Here we go! Crossing my fingers, toes, and even the ever popular yet rare finger-over-toe combo. C'MON!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: …but there is still a chance for a 12z ECMWF type situation to verify. That run was really cold when you look at the surface temperatures that were being forecast… 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Cold rain and wind with maybe the odd flurry mixed in 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather1011 said: Cold rain and wind with maybe the odd flurry mixed in A McFlurry that is. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 2 GFS GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: A McFlurry that is. I would take that 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Block is weaker and further east. Looks a lot like the GFS! Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 3 GFS GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Bow down to lord GFS 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Models giveth(sometimes), and then they taketh away(often). It's October 38. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 4 GFS GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 4 850s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Still going to be cool with frost most areas. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 5 GFS GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 850s -8c to -10c Gorge/Columbia Basin. Not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 EC/GEM 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 The 0z ECMWF drops 850s to -6 over SEA. About the same as the 12z. Quite a bit colder than the GFS. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Block on EURO is mega strong at Day 5.... I could easily see 12z runs being very cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 0z ECMWF drops 850s to -6 over SEA. About the same as the 12z. Quite a bit colder than the GFS. What do you think is the coldest 850mb temps have ever been in Seattle before October 25th? I'd guess around -9 or -10? 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 The weatherbell maps show some places already below freezing by 6 pm on Sunday. Pretty extraordinary stuff for so early in the season. It still shows Saturday night being a real nippy one as well. The ECMWF continues to show much more favorable surface pressure gradients for max cooling in the Puget Sound region this weekend. It appears this run is going for a high of 46 for SEA on Friday and then a 47/32 day on Sunday. Pretty D**n solid. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 6-8 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: What do you think is the coldest 850mb temps have ever been in Seattle before October 25th? I'd guess around -9 or -10? No way it's been that cold before the 25th. 1949 bottomed out around -4.5 from what I can tell. That's kind of the gold standard for pre October 25. After the 25th is a way different ballgame. I will say that it's possible the 850s have dropped to around -6 in maritime polar situation before the 25th before. 1956 and 1985 are a couple that come to mind for that. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 One thing about this Euro run is it features more of a N to S gradient than the 12z for the CAA following the low on Friday. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing it trend more toward the 12z from a 500mb perspective. From Portland northward this run is almost as cold for surface stuff. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9 Well how about that! There has been a marked trend toward more amplification around 140 early next week for a number of runs on all models now. Might be ready to bear some fruit. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Some 70s as we get into November? It's happened before. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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