Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Operational and control are both cold outliers on the ensembles as expected. But they aren't all alone anymore and some go colder. Steady improvement with the past 2 GEFS runs. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: For the Willamette Valley, October will end up just slightly above average temperature wise. Not bad considering how badly we torched early in the month. WUACD. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Nice 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Jesse said: Light rain and 48 this morning, after a low of 42. Just .03” so far. Sunny and windy here. My kind of fall weather. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Jesse said: Nice Columbia Basin isn't too shabby as well. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, luminen said: Sunny and windy here. My kind of fall weather. Yes! Same here and I love it as well! 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 12z ECMWF Day 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yes! Same here and I love it as well! I think I can see a few patches of blue in the overcast. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 5 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 6 Past 4 runs(4 days) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 I can totally see where the term "clown range" comes from. Look at that shitty face in the upper levels 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 FWIW, 12z ICON is onboard w/ the GFS. So probably worth nothing. 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 7 C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: FWIW, 12z ICON is onboard w/ the GFS. So probably worth nothing. Most definitely. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 EC providing a much more realistic scenario. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Euro much less amplified than the GFS. Height anomalies over the GOA are more analogous to an amplified ridging pattern than a high latitude blocking pattern, hence the lack of cold air displacement. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: EC providing a much more realistic scenario. True, but many model runs to go. I'm thinking we have a 30% chance at a Top 3 November. Yes, really. 18z GFS in 2 hours 36 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: True, but many model runs to go. I'm thinking we have a 30% chance at a Top 3 November. Yes, really. 18z GFS in 2 hours 36 minutes Bring it on 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Temps in the mid-range still barely or not even reaching 50F for a high is a solid stat for this early. And even the queen showed Bachelor and the Lane County Cascades getting a dump. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Euro much less amplified than the GFS. Height anomalies over the GOA are more analogous to an amplified ridging pattern than a high latitude blocking pattern, hence the lack of cold air displacement. Yep. Who saw that coming? Model noise? or something more. King GFS again? No idea. No trends to really latch onto yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 No model agreement after Day 4. Not real surprised by that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Would still be awesome for it to unload on us in the back half of the month or Dec-Jan. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: No model agreement after Day 4. Not real surprised by that. Is that thawed area from basically the Urals over to us fuckking up the models? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Is that thawed area from basically the Urals over to us fuckking up the models? Is it thawed over there? Ya never know.... 00z GFS in 8 hours 24 minutes 00z GEM in 8 hours 56 minutes 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 41 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 12z Euro is pretty meh for here but finally brings rain and snow to drought-stricken CA. Would be the final blow to west coast fire season most likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 First generator power of the season! Was not expecting this wind! 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 We are back to a winter cancel scenario? 2 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 19 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Would still be awesome for it to unload on us in the back half of the month or Dec-Jan. Blocking patterns can last for a long time in the right circumstances. I don’t see any reason these blocking patterns can’t last into winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We are back to a winter cancel scenario? Nah, patience. It'll get here in prime-time. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 F*ck. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Getting some clearing here now. 54 degrees. Picked up .10” this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 EPS might be a bit colder than the operational, at least at times. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 35 minutes ago, MossMan said: First generator power of the season! Was not expecting this wind! Geez dude, how shitty is the SNO-PUD grid up there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, Deweydog said: F*ck. Calm down there Matlock, I'm sure we can agree on some sort of plea deal, yes? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jbolin said: Calm down there Matlock, I'm sure we can agree on sort of plea deal, yes? I think he spilled a hot drink in his lap. 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Winter is cancelled. We can try again next year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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