Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: I think I remember tiger talking about the “south valley surprise” wind event a couple times. https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/February2002.html Yup. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: I think I remember tiger talking about the “south valley surprise” wind event a couple times. https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/February2002.html Wolf Read's article on it shows just how fascinating the event really was. Not only was it just a high wind event, it rivaled the Columbus Day storm in a few areas. Winds of any strength weren't even mentioned in the morning AFD, not even for the coast. And then it snowed in the South Valley as the CAA wrapped around its backside. Truly high-end event. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/February2002.html Wolf Read's article on it shows just how fascinating the event really was. Not only was it just a high wind event, it rivaled the Columbus Day storm in a few areas. Winds of any strength weren't even mentioned in the morning AFD, not even for the coast. And then it snowed in the South Valley as the CAA wrapped around its backside. Truly high-end event. It snowed up here in PDX on the north side of it. Very dynamic system. Yeah a high-end event for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: It snowed up here in PDX on the north side of it. Very dynamic system. Yeah a high-end event for sure. Wow I will have to read it fully when I get a chance I read a lot of beginning of it. Pretty interesting stuff I didn’t know it was that intense. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Interestingly, the Euro is about correct with the strength, but 100-200 miles too far east. Could add some juice to the system, but only so much in the way of wind potential. Blustery at times perhaps, maybe windy if all the cards fall in the right place. Developing situation. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Interestingly, the Euro is about correct with the strength, but 100-200 miles too far east. Could add some juice to the system, but only so much in the way of wind potential. Blustery at times perhaps, maybe windy if all the cards fall in the right place. Developing situation. Here we go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 The NWS is going very low key for the Seattle area. Not even a wind advisory. There is a mention of thundershowers for tomorrow though. November actually isn't a bad bet for a thunderstorm day or two on average. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 All rain here. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: All rain here. 12 degrees from a potential rain/snow mix here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hmmm... Water vapor imagery now shows really good development with a nice dry slot emerging. This low looks as if it may strengthen quickly with possible rapid cyclogenesis as it moves towards the Washington Coast. Viewing the loop it is very evident with that familiar 'comma' structure showing. Here we go!!!! is it me or is that low more north than modeled at that point or maybe my eyes are bad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, seattleweatherguy said: is it me or is that low more north than modeled at that point or maybe my eyes are bad? It's definitely 20-50 miles more north than modeled. No surprises there. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It's definitely 20-50 miles more north than modeled. No surprises there. Still do not think it will get north enough to create a massive windstorm, but maybe 45 mph winds? But I guess anything is possible now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 With poor model consistency how in the heck are we going to be able to see if something legit will hit us 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Up here In Silverton we didn’t get any wind with the south valley special, but we did get snow, which was quite unexpected. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 I suspect Seattle NWS issues Wind Advisories well before the morning shift. 00z GFS in 3 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Grain of salt but HRRR is quite strong with the southerly gusts over PDX— shows a slug of 45-60 mph gusts in the early morning hours. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: Grain of salt but HRRR is quite strong with the southerly gusts over PDX— shows a slug of 45-60 mph gusts in the early morning hours. Yup. HRRR is picking up on the developments on WV imagery. Here we go!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Requiem said: Grain of salt but HRRR is quite strong with the southerly gusts over PDX— shows a slug of 45-60 mph gusts in the early morning hours. What about for the PS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Not expecting much from this but am still going to hope we get a good blow. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Rain has started up here. Even if we don’t get any big gusts, we are about to get a bunch of rain in the next 24 hours. Should be nice November weather. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 7:00 PM Imagery Here we go!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: What about for the PS? Around 40-50 mph mostly, should get breezy at least 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 00z GFS running. Looking towards Tuesday. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: 7:00 PM Imagery Here we go!!!! Euro had the low south of the sound by this time. This is placed around Everett right now. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 In 2020 it takes till mid November to get an atmospheric river. We've seen these start in September when I was in highschool Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Euro had the low south of the sound by this time. This is placed around Everett right now. If I’m fathoming this right— euro has been too far east with development, correct? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 7:30 PM Boom! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Requiem said: If I’m fathoming this right— euro has been too far east with development, correct? By a hair. I might have overstated the longitudinal error a bit. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 This low is going to BOMB all the way to landfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Those are the 2 strongest frames. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Mark Nelsen says he doesn’t know what the NWS is thinking. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: FWIW, the 00z GFS was about 3mb stronger and looked a little more put together than the 18z. Now we are to the point though of relying more on observations and less on the models. Not really expecting much for Puget Sound but hope you PDX'ers can at least score something out of this thing. Yeah if we re lucky we can score a power outage... 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 00z GFS is stronger and closer with the Tuesday low. This could be the run that establishes the "rug-pull" situation. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Mark Nelsen says he doesn’t know what the NWS is thinking. What did he say/predict? He hasn't updated his blog yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Mark Nelsen says he doesn’t know what the NWS is thinking. In regards to tomorrow’s potential wind? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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