Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Already did, weeks ago. That plus longer term trends makes me feel like it's a relatively safe call.What longer term trends, oh-vague one? We're all here to learn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 What longer term trends, oh-vague one? We're all here to learn.Warmth. Late season warmth. The tendency of late has been to see less prolonged warmth early in the warm season, more later. It's not universal, and granted I thought August would be more of a shift from July, but the upcoming -PNA stuff has me feeling better. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Warmth. Late season warmth. The tendency of late has been to see less prolonged warmth early in the warm season, more later. It's not universal, and granted I thought August would be more of a shift from July, but the upcoming -PNA stuff has me feeling better.Aside from the late July trough it has been pretty much wall to wall warmth since 7-1. Obscure record-breakingly so in many cases. Tough to make the "due" case in this instance. I'm assuming that's what your basing your outlook off of. Just odd to hear a "we're warmth-starved" argument after one of our warmest Julys on record (Oregon's second warmest in recorded history) and likely one of our warmest first halves of August. But hey, not like what we think matters anyway. Sometimes it feels like you are basing your outooks off of an imaginary climo world where we need to have a 595dm ridge over us every day all summer or else we will pay later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Aside from the late July trough it has been pretty much wall to wall warmth since 7-1. Obscure record-breakingly so in many cases. Tough to make the "due" case in this instance. I'm assuming that's what your basing your outlook off of. Just odd to hear a "we're warmth-starved" argument after one of our warmest Julys on record (Oregon's second warmest in recorded history) and likely one of our warmest first halves of August. But hey, not like what we think matters anyway. Sometimes it feels like you are basing your outooks off of an imaginary climo world where we need to have a 595dm ridge over us every day all summer or else we will pay later. I can't help how you interpret it. We're not paying for anything and your last sentence just amounts to Tim-like whining. It's weather. It doesn't care how Jesse feels about warm lows. I pay attention and have a pretty good working knowledge of things day to day, for the most part. I don't claim to, nor do I actually have the technical knowledge of some but sometimes a dose of common sense and attentiveness can go a long way. Many get twisted up about what they want, feel we deserve and the justices/injustices of the emo side of weather geekdom. It's human, but it doesn't mean s**t. This isn't about being due or not due. And whether September turns out warm, cool or average doesn't mean the difference between night and day. My initial thoughts were that we'd see a fairly hot early/mid summer followed by a marked cool down going into August. The cool down has obviously been delayed. Does that mean September may end up cooler? Maybe, but I doubt it at this point. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I can't help how you interpret it. We're not paying for anything and your last sentence just amounts to Tim-like whining. It's weather. It doesn't care how Jesse feels about warm lows. I pay attention and have a pretty good working knowledge of things day to day, for the most part. I don't claim to, nor do I actually have the technical knowledge of some but sometimes a dose of common sense and attentiveness can go a long way. Many get twisted up about what they want, feel we deserve and the justices/injustices of the emo side of weather geekdom. It's human, but it doesn't mean s**t. This isn't about being due or not due. And whether September turns out warm, cool or average doesn't mean the difference between night and day. My initial thoughts were that we'd see a fairly hot early/mid summer followed by a marked cool down going into August. The cool down has obviously been delayed. Does that mean September may end up cooler? Maybe, but I doubt it at this point. Nor can I help how you interpret my comments. Seems to me that common sense would dictate the cooldown getting pushed into later August would increase the chances of a cool September. Nothing to do with what I want or feel we're owed. Just the simple fact that is has been pretty warm the better part of the last six months and the other shoe has to drop eventually. Guess we'll find out soon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Nor can I help how you interpret my comments. Seems to me that common sense would dictate the cooldown getting pushed into later August would increase the chances of a cool September. Nothing to do with what I want or feel we're owed. Just the simple fact that is has been pretty warm the better part of the last six months and the other shoe has to drop eventually. Guess we'll find out soon! Maybe so, but the longer the shoe takes to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time, the more chances it'll take longer for it to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time. If it makes you feel any better, I think October/November might be pretty stormy. And trust me, everyone knows how to interpret your comments. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Maybe so, but the longer the shoe takes to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time, the more chances it'll take longer to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time. If it makes you feel any better, I think October/November might be pretty stormy. And trust me, everyone knows how to interpret your comments. Whatever helps you sleep at night, Sigmund. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Whatever helps you sleep at night, Sigmund. All you need is a pulse and access to the GFS/Euro. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Maybe so, but the longer the shoe takes to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time, the more chances it'll take longer for it to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time. If it makes you feel any better, I think October/November might be pretty stormy. And trust me, everyone knows how to interpret your comments. Another note. I have observed this same phenomenon. It seems like if "pattern changes" are piecemeal and short we will often revert back to the default pattern, prolonging its predominance in the end. If I am correct and the upcoming retrogression represents a large scale, long term shift we may in a cool period for awhile. Hence my thoughts about Sep-Dec a bit ago. But if it looks like we are transitioning out of it within a few weeks I will be sweating. Granted this stuff has a tendency to usually bite me in the a** so I'm sure that's how it will play out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I don't care if the other shoe doesn't drop until around Thanksgiving. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I don't care if the other shoe doesn't drop until around Thanksgiving. Careful... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Another note. I have observed this same phenomenon. It seems like if "pattern changes" are piecemeal and short we will often revert back to the default pattern, prolonging its predominance in the end. If I am correct and the upcoming retrogression represents a large scale, long term shift we may in a cool period for awhile. Hence my thoughts about Sep-Dec a bit ago. But if it looks like we are transitioning out of it within a few weeks I will be sweating. Granted this stuff has a tendency to usually bite me in the a** so I'm sure that's how it will play out. "Awhile" is a pretty subjective term. Through the end of the month is quite awhile. Just think how long your finger nails would be if you just let them grow until two weeks from Monday. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 "Awhile" is a pretty subjective term. Through the end of the month is quite awhile. Just think how long your finger nails would be if you just let them grow until two weeks from Monday. For cool periods, two weeks is forever. For warmth, six months and we are still starving for more. This doesn't feel like a very objective analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I can't help how you interpret it. We're not paying for anything and your last sentence just amounts to Tim-like whining. It's weather. It doesn't care how Jesse feels about warm lows.It's been pretty much a daily Jesse bitchfest on here since April. He tries to keep it in check but his disgust comes oozing out. We should all hate warm weather like he does. Why can't it be cold and rainy all summer???? I am getting exhausted from all this summer fun. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 For cool periods, two weeks is forever. For warmth, six months and we are still starving for more. This doesn't feel like a very objective analysis. It's not. This is why you struggle mightily at times. You lack objectivity. Look at 2010. Cool spring, cool summer. Did September automatically fall off the table into heatwave oblivion? No. That summer was about a cool regime with brief interludes of heat. The only person here that couldn't take that in stride was Tim. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is warmer with higher heights than its operational run for later in the week and next weekend Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Warm lows and higher dewpoints and very comfortable evenings has been a particularly enjoyable aspect of this summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 It's not. This is why you struggle mightily at times. You lack objectivity. Look at 2010. Cool spring, cool summer. Did September automatically fall off the table into heatwave oblivion? No. That summer was about a cool regime with brief interludes of heat. The only person here that couldn't take that in stride was Tim. I think everyone here has weather they do or don't like. While it is not good to let this affect analysis/forecasting (I realize this has been an issue of mine in the past) it is almost impossible to not include some personal commentary. Is this forum just about weather or is it about weather and people? We aren't robots. Then again it is of course bad form to flood the forum with constant opining. Like you said earlier, it's about balance. I'm sure you have your druthers as well. Be sure to never let any of us know about them, though. We might think less of you if you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Objectivity is a funny thing. Can anyone truly be 100% objective? I mean you could go down a long, winding philosophical road for that one. Suddenly reality itself starts breaking down. I think everyone here has weather they do or don't like. While it is not good to let this affect analysis/forecasting (I realize this has been an issue of mine in the past) it is almost impossible to not include some personal commentary. Is this forum just about weather or is it about weather and people? We aren't robots. I'm sure you have your druthers as well. Be sure to never let any of us know about them, though. We might think less of you if you do. Like you said earlier, it's about balance. This isn't a test of whether someone can achieve spotless objectivity. Humans are humans. But keep it in context. You make it sound like someone has to apologize for remaining or striving for objectivity in a scientific analysis. There is no balance there. It's black and white. From a subjective standpoint, it's funny to watch you over the years make efforts to tear people down who don't fall in line with your taste in weather. Is that what you want everyone to do? Will that quench your thirst for subjectivity? I hope for and like all kinds of weather, but those opinions are mine and will differ from most. My wife hates snow and thunderstorms. Do I chide her for this? I'll let you figure that one out on your own. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 This isn't a test of whether someone can achieve spotless objectivity. Humans are humans. But keep it in context. You make it sound like someone has to apologize for remaining or striving for objectivity in a scientific analysis. There is no balance there. It's black and white. From a subjective standpoint, it's funny to watch you over the years make efforts to tear people down who don't fall in line with your taste in weather. Is that what you want everyone to do? Will that quench your thirst for subjectivity? I hope for and like all kinds of weather, but those opinions are mine and will differ from most. My wife hates snow and thunderstorms. Do I chide her for this? I'll let you figure that one out on your own. Then you interpreted my comments incorrectly. Lastly, in my defense, I don't think that has been as much of an issue lately. It's a negative thing do to and just ruins the forum. Even conflagrations like today's are best avoided IMO. Not even sure how this started. We were having an interesting weather based discussion and suddenly we are playing therapist patient to each other. This will be my last contribution to this particular conversation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Then you interpreted my comments incorrectly. Lastly, in my defense, I don't think that has been as much of an issue lately. It's a negative thing do to and just ruins the forum. Even conflagrations like today's are best avoided IMO. Not even sure how this started. We were having an interesting weather based discussion and suddenly we are playing therapist patient to each other. This will be my last contribution to this particular conversation. Maybe just settle on the fact I don't get wrapped around the axle about people's opinion's of the weather. I don't think that's a character flaw. I like all kinds of weather. Hot, cold, dry, wet, white, orange. And the great thing is, whether or not one of those things happens now, it's happened before and will happen again. Not worth getting in a twist about. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Nice to see all of this activity here after the slow past few months! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I don't know about the 2nd half of September, but the 1st half of the month should be troughy in the west, and ridgy in the east, simply based on the cycling AAM and MJO/CCKW now in the IO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Nice to see all of this activity here after the slow past few months! #westerntroughing Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is warmer with higher heights than its operational run for later in the week and next weekend Interesting so maybe wed and thurs wont have showers or rain? the weather.com app has taken out the showers for thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 #westerntroughing Everyone needs to like it. Or else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I don't know about the 2nd half of September, but the 1st half of the month should be troughy in the west, and ridgy in the east, simply based on the cycling AAM and MJO/CCKW now in the IO. Pardon. ? — Perhaps you could expand on your thinking here a bit. (?) As in, .. What is it that you're seeing more in particularly, where considering the cycling that you've pointed to. ? And with this, .. why, more specifically, what you've suggested will occur .. will. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Pardon. ? — Perhaps you could expand on your thinking here a bit. (?) As in, .. What is it that you're seeing more in particularly, where considering the cycling that you've pointed to. ? And with this, as to .. Why, more specifically, what you've suggested will occur .. will.Haven't I explained my reasoning and the aspects of the AAM/MJO cycle(s) like 15 times here? No offense intended, but I think I've regurgitated my reasoning relentlessly since I first predicted the return of western troughing almost 2 weeks ago. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.seascyc.shtml Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Haven't I explained my reasoning and the aspects of the AAM/MJO cycle(s) like 15 times here? ............... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.seascyc.shtml Perhaps "not". .... Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 See the drop in the AAM, associated with an invigorated MJO in the midst of a cooling equatorial tropopause: http://catchmypicture.com/TwyUYw.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 -.. How about "never mind". Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 See the drop in the AAM, associated with an invigorated MJO in the midst of a cooling equatorial tropopause: http://catchmypicture.com/TwyUYw.jpg#westerntroughing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 #westerntroughing? #hashtag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 What a ***** that'd be if we were back in the 80's a week from now?? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 What ***** that'd be if we were back in the 80's a week from now?? I'm running in Hood to Coast next weekend, so I am inclined to agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 I'm running in Hood to Coast next weekend, so I am inclined to agree.I did it in 2003 and had a blast. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 I'm running in Hood to Coast next weekend, so I am inclined to agree.Very cool... I have some relatives from Texas coming up for that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 #westerntroughing?Haven't seen this in awhile!! Where will the axis gradient set up?? http://catchmypicture.com/f/2ejyct/640.jpg http://catchmypicture.com/f/v4zC2T/640.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 I did it in 2003 and had a blast. First time for me. Looking at Friday afternoon, worst case scenario for the Portland area is probably mid 80s, so it could certainly be worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 First time for me. Looking at Friday afternoon, worst case scenario for the Portland area is probably mid 80s, so it could certainly be worse.Mid 80's was the worst of it for us. Seaside was socked in so that was a nice prize at the end of the line. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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