Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 It’s not bad. That TPV is getting a little too close to the Beaufort Sea/West Arctic for my liking, however. Hopefully there’s enough Eurasian ridging to keep it farther south into the Yukon like some earlier runs showed. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Phil said: That TPV is getting a little too close to the Beaufort Sea/West Arctic for my liking. Hopefully there’s enough Eurasian ridging to keep it farther south into the Yukon like some earlier runs showed. We managed to score some at Costco again last week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Phil said: The day you catch me driving a minivan is the day the sequel to January 1950 begins. I drive a 2011 Acura. Hopefully not for much longer. So you were driving one in late December 2017? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 ENSO 3.4 region checks in at -1.1C this week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Creepy. I know where you live...And exactly when your badminton practices happen...You need to work on your serve. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: We managed to score some at Costco again last week. We need a Jay Inslee clone over here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Partly sunny and 54... nice day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 12Z EPS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: So you were driving one in late December 2017? ‘99 RL. I think. Maybe it is an analog?? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, Phil said: The day you catch me driving a minivan is the day the sequel to January 1950 begins. I drive a 2011 Acura. Hopefully not for much longer. Nice! I have a 1991 Legend LS coupe in Pearl White that I drive on sunny days. Acura is a great vehicle. I see Andrew has a RDX as well i noticed in the background of a pic from other day. Great Brand and most reliable 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: ENSO 3.4 region checks in at -1.1C this week. Praying for summer 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... Looks like a wet mountain snow pattern. If that ridge ever noses into Alaska we will be in business. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 My wife drives an Acura, RDX I believe. I like it better than my Outback. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My wife drives an Acura, RDX I believe. I like it better than my Outback. The turbo spools up nicely on those. A hoot to drive! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 M'lady drives a Toyota Highlander. I drive nothing anymore because of epilepsy. I miss it but there are plenty of other things to be happy about. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: M'lady drives a Toyota Highlander. I drive nothing anymore because of epilepsy. I miss it but there are plenty of other things to be happy about. Highlander's are nice. We got the Acura because her brother won $50K at the casino and bought a new Highlander, gave us his Acura. He is a nice guy. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: Nice! I have a 1991 Legend LS coupe in Pearl White that I drive on sunny days. Acura is a great vehicle. I see Andrew has a RDX as well i noticed in the background of a pic from other day. Great Brand and most reliable Nice! That is actually my favorite Acura ever made! It was so ahead of its time! My wife had a 2002 RSX before it had to go away due to not having room for kids, it was a fun little car that was flawless inside and out. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: Nice! I have a 1991 Legend LS coupe in Pearl White that I drive on sunny days. Acura is a great vehicle. I see Andrew has a RDX as well i noticed in the background of a pic from other day. Great Brand and most reliable My TSX is pearl white too. Definitely a nice car, balances fuel economy and performance exceptionally. Probably why I’m still clinging to it (other than the fact I’m borderline broke at the moment). Atrocious in the snow, though. Easily the worst winter car I’ve ever driven. Also loses alignment more quickly than the RL did. But I suppose you can’t have it all. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, Phil said: It’s not bad. That TPV is getting a little too close to the Beaufort Sea/West Arctic for my liking, however. Hopefully there’s enough Eurasian ridging to keep it farther south into the Yukon like some earlier runs showed. The lowland snow for the 3rd week of December should be coming into focus very soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, ShawniganLake said: The lowland snow for the 3rd week of December should be coming into focus very soon. Hopefully! I see more cold risk during the 2nd half of December than is currently advertised on guidance. But my perspective could be wrong. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 This thing woulda come in handy soon! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Jbolin said: Just got my COVID test result back after feeling "funky" for the past week, (Positive for COVID) I am shocked that I'm positive considering I have been working from home since early March, have groceries/other items delivered, no family or friends contact, constantly washing hands, etc. Started to feel achy/lethargic last Sunday, appetite waned the next day, periodic fever just north of 102F, occasional vomiting and tired, tired, tired. This sucks and I'm a little pissed that despite my best efforts to protect myself I still contracted this virus. My presence will be limited for the foreseeable future. Be smart guys, PLEASE don't take unnecessary risks, I'll see ya when I see ya. Take care That sucks. Get well soon! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 The Eurasia/NW-Pacific pattern is more than decent. W-IO standing wave is weakening. The PV is being kept off balance. At worst, there are no red flags yet. At best, the pattern appears more favorable to build blocking than most of the niñas this century. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, MossMan said: Nice! That is actually my favorite Acura ever made! It was so ahead of its time! My wife had a 2002 RSX before it had to go away due to not having room for kids, it was a fun little car that was flawless inside and out. I love the self sealing doors on my Legend. Now only Bentleys and million dollar cars have that feature unfortunately. That is a beautiful Berlina Black RSX!!! Those were fast, BUT they should have kept the Integra nameplate like in Japan domestic market. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 D**n, aside from the CMC the models have kind of taken a poop today. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: D**n, aside from the CMC the models have kind of taken a poop today. At least the NOAA forecasters are in the snow camp. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...We should expect temperatures to begin their return back to normal as towards the end of the week. This return will be largely due to a stronger frontal system moving through Thursday. This will bring rain to the lowlands and a few inches of snow at pass level on Thursday. This system will also bring more seasonable temperatures to the area. After the front moves through, their is the potential for some ridging to occur offshore. Moisture would be transported over the ridge crest and down through Western Washington. This moisture will could produce some heavier rain and mountain snow. Moreover, with the trough over the area, providing colder surface temperatures and snow levels dropping to less than 1000 feet in some locations (mostly near Bellingham), their is the potential for snow or rain snow/mix to occur towards the end of the week. This is still a ways out so confidence is low, but it is night three of both deterministic models and ensembles suggesting this. Butwin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: At least the NOAA forecasters are in the snow camp. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...We should expect temperatures to begin their return back to normal as towards the end of the week. This return will be largely due to a stronger frontal system moving through Thursday. This will bring rain to the lowlands and a few inches of snow at pass level on Thursday. This system will also bring more seasonable temperatures to the area. After the front moves through, their is the potential for some ridging to occur offshore. Moisture would be transported over the ridge crest and down through Western Washington. This moisture will could produce some heavier rain and mountain snow. Moreover, with the trough over the area, providing colder surface temperatures and snow levels dropping to less than 1000 feet in some locations (mostly near Bellingham), their is the potential for snow or rain snow/mix to occur towards the end of the week. This is still a ways out so confidence is low, but it is night three of both deterministic models and ensembles suggesting this. Butwin Their it is again!! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: Their it is again!! Thanks for the moral support Mr Jesse! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Who else is ready to be disappointed by the weekly model runs?!!!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 I’m in the bullish camp for now. There’s always a way for things to go wrong, even in the statistically-ideal big picture setups, but on balance I’d put this winter in the leans cold/snowy column for PNW region. Probably for the NW half of the county. East coast probably has another 2019/20 fail. As I’ve said before, these megafail torch winters tend to come in clusters of 2 out here (sometimes 3 out of 4). Easier forecast, even without taking that into account. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: D**n, aside from the CMC the models have kind of taken a poop today. Yeah, they looked AMAZING yesterday... 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Less than ideal... 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Less than ideal... This one is a bit better, perhaps better than last nights. Maybe not ideal, but better than the GEFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: This one is a bit better, perhaps better than last nights. Maybe not ideal, but better than the GEFS GEM is ok too, tho not sure how reliable that model is... 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 16 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: …snow levels dropping to less than 1000 feet in some locations (mostly near Bellingham)… Sweet! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Sweet! 12Z ECMWF does not show much lowland snow... not even for my area. I am not sure what the NWS is seeing but we know the GFS snowfall maps can be goofy. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF does not show much lowland snow... not even for my area. I am not sure what the NWS is seeing but we know the GFS snowfall maps can be goofy. We shall see. I’m not expecting more than some slushy glop that melts relatively quickly at best. Seems like a marginal set-up. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 You rich people and your functioning cars... 1 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 This is probably the best (i.e. snowiest in the lowlands) GFS map I can find, and it’s definitely very marginal. Only shows lowland snow up against the Coast Mountains where precip rates are the highest (and perhaps some cooler air is banked). We shall see. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Hmmm… Actually have some green over me on this one. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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