The Swamp Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 (Past 4 runs) ridges keep popping up but the Pacific is so active it just pushes them right on through sure would be nice to see the Pacific shut down/slow down a bit and give one of these blocks a chance to get a foot hold grow and retrograde 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Feeling better about my bold prediction. Meany face naysayer!!!! 2 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 We need that massive Greenland Block at ~155 W. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 It would appear from the ensembles that the problem is indeed that there has been a large northward move on many members. Not good, but still time for a reversal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 9'er What Gulf of Alaska block? Whatever happened to models showing that. Ahhh... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 I need to move back to the east coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Uh oh! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Close to a massive blizzard Gorge, PDX? Just need that low level cold pool do its job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 The cold pool sets up just before Christmas Eve, strong east winds, jet suppressed, low comes in from the southwest. BOOK IT! MBG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: The cold pool sets up just before Christmas Eve, strong east winds, jet suppressed, low comes in from the southwest. BOOK IT! MBG That would surely bury me in 20" or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 The recent GEFS 35 day run have not been that good, but last nights looks like the Euro weeklies did today, though I don't know if the timing is similar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, umadbro said: Meany face naysayer!!!! On the Lars Larson Show, naysayers go to the front of the line. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 00z GEM Day 4 Trending big time towards the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 This is different than recent runs . . . Vs: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Back to the 00z GFS Day 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: On the Lars Larson Show, naysayers go to the front of the line. And usually naysayers end up agreeing with me or I cut them off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 30 years ago today high temperatures were around 50. Ho hum... 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Jginmartini said: And usually naysayers end up agreeing with me or I cut them off Stop the steal (of our winter)!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 I had a dusting of snow 4yrs ago today! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 This run is awful. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 30 years ago today high temperatures were around 50. Ho hum... Nothing even close has happened since. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 14 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 00z GEM Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 15 Please make it stop!!! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Looks like an El Niño hell. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Day 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 I blame Andrews negative posts earlier today for this evenings model collapse. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Let's see if the GEFS follows suit. I have a hunch it won't, but there's always the possibility it will. Either way, ensemble suite or not, it's a bad idea to make rash judgements based on sudden changes in the fantasy range. Statistically speaking, given the atmospheric indicators at play, this should just be a blip. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Let's see if the GEFS follows suit. I have a hunch it won't, but there's always the possibility it will. Either way, ensemble suite or not, it's a bad idea to make rash judgements based on sudden changes in the fantasy range. Statistically speaking, given the atmospheric indicators at play, this should just be a blip. 12Z EPS was quite warm for the next 15 days. I am not sure why the 00Z GFS would be just a blip. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Meh. Hopefully some -PNA in mid January at least. That seems to be a common theme on the GEFS and EPS. Doubt it will amount to any significant arctic air but should at least be some sustained troughing towards then. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 00z GEM Day 8 Very different than the GFS after Day 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS was quite warm for the next 15 days. I am not sure why the 00Z GFS would be just a blip. Yeah, there hasn't been any real ensemble support for anything sizable the next two weeks. The last few GFS runs are pretty close to a best case scenario for us cold wise in this upcoming stretch. Modest trough going into a ridge to fuel a low level cold pool. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Clark County also has this going for us, which is nice. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Hey, @TigerWoodsLibido, did you see this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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