December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Phil]

Holy frickers.

[Blizzard777]

27 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So... what's everyones plans for the early start of summer?

Living life today! Out in your neck of the woods today for a little biking and weather watching. 30 mph mist in my face!  Was a great time and enjoyed the waves breaking over the jetty near the tower.  Also treated myself to some fish and chips at the Fish Shack 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 AM Christmas Eve

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s about to change in a big, big way.

Goodbye BB’s, hello spitballs. Sorry, nothing but rain and fifties from here on.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF for Monday into Tuesday morning...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Drove over Tombstone Pass east of Sweet Home earlier this evening. It was VERY snowy.

Couldn’t bring yourself to drive through the burn scar?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If "due" was a thing, I'd think it would apply more to large scale, not small scale anomalies like Jan 2017 in Portland.

Absolutely...

It has no solid basis in atmospheric anomalies or drivers, but there are observable rhythms to any regional climate.  Just a little piece to the puzzle.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy frickers.

Lol @ y’all hating on the 00z GFS. That run would go places, in due time.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy frickers.

Somebody wake up Abby!!!

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, wxmet said:

This forum needs a Panic Room thread 

We had one at one point. Maybe 2007-08? Can't remember if anything good actually happened the year it was started.

[catnip]

Just now, Phil said:

Lol @ y’all hating on the 00z GFS. That run would go places, in due time.

Winter Un-Cancel!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF for Monday into Tuesday morning...

 

I’m only a few miles from the light gray!

[van city]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Somebody wake up Abby!!!

His bed time has passed. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Lol @ y’all hating on the 00z GFS. That run would go places, in due time.

Just like the Euro weeklies, by Memorial Day weekend major troughing will commence. Just in time for Tim to make an escape to a little oasis known as Pasco, Kennewick, and Richland!

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Couldn’t bring yourself to drive through the burn scar?

Drove up the McKenzie for the very purpose of seeing it, and catching a nice hike along the river east of McKenzie Bridge.

Pretty devastating scene from Leaburg to just before the Blue Sky store in Rainbow. First time up that way since the fire. I was really glad to see the town of McKenzie Bridge wasn't lost.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

We had one at one point. Maybe 2007-08? Can't remember if anything good actually happened the year it was started.

It was.  Profanity-laden goodness.  That was a strong El Niño though.  No chance that level of climate related vitriol will repeat itself this winter.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy frickers.

The alien ultra sound will save us all.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If "due" was a thing, I'd think it would apply more to large scale, not small scale anomalies like Jan 2017 in Portland.

On a wide scale though, 2016-17 and 2018-19 featured upper echelon cold stretches for most of the region. Just without the benefit of any genuinely major airmasses.

We could easily see another 1998-99 scenario before we see another stretch like those, with a winter that is largely warm and devoid of anything too nice but still happens to deliver an outlierish big airmass.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It was.  Profanity-laden goodness.  That was a strong El Niño though.  No chance that level of climate related vitriol will repeat itself this winter.

The last two strong El Ninos here both delivered snow!

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

On a wide scale though, 2016-17 and 2018-19 featured upper echelon cold stretches for most of the region. Just without the benefit of any genuinely major airmasses.

We could easily see another 1998-99 scenario before we see another stretch like those, with a winter that is largely warm and devoid of anything too nice but still happens to deliver an outlierish big airmass.

If the Feb 2019 pattern happened in January, the general perspective on what is possible still would certainly be different right now.

[Jesse]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

If the Feb 2019 pattern happened in January, the general perspective on what is possible still would certainly be different right now.

And if ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a very merry Christmas!

[Jesse]

Oops...did Canadian Christmas already happen?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Drove up the McKenzie for the very purpose of seeing it, and catching a nice hike along the river east of McKenzie Bridge.

Pretty devastating scene from Leaburg to just before the Blue Sky store in Rainbow. First time up that way since the fire. I was really glad to see the town of McKenzie Bridge wasn't lost.

Ahhh I guess I assumed you were coming back from Central Oregon, though if you were you would have probably come back 26. 
 

Going to be tough to see. Really 4 of our most beautiful river canyons were horribly impacted by those fires. Have to say they took a little piece of me with them. Sometimes I wonder if it would not have been better to lose my home, then I would have nothing left to cling to, instead of holding onto the pieces of a world that is no more. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Meh, Bleh, Poops

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

If the Feb 2019 pattern happened in January, the general perspective on what is possible still would certainly be different right now.

February 2019 was pretty awesome. On 2/4 it was 23 degrees here in the middle of the afternoon with 40mph north winds and snow! Snow got to 20” deep on 2/13. Might be awhile before we see something like that again in February or any month. I’ve got hope for a decent event or two in January or February still. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If the Feb 2019 pattern happened in January, the general perspective on what is possible still would certainly be different right now.

Lots of rejoicing in Seattle and lots of moping in EUG, SLE, PDX, BLI, YVR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If the Feb 2019 pattern happened in January, the general perspective on what is possible still would certainly be different right now.

If it had happened in January my house would have collapsed under the snow. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ahhh I guess I assumed you were coming back from Central Oregon, though if you were you would have probably come back 26. 
 

Going to be tough to see. Really 4 of our most beautiful river canyons were horribly impacted by those fires. Have to say they took a little piece of me with them. Sometimes I wonder if it would not have been better to lose my home, then I would have nothing left to cling to, instead of holding onto the pieces of a world that is no more. 

Would have you stayed in the area if that happened or moved away? You don't need to answer that it if it is to personal. 

[Jesse]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If it had happened in January my house would have collapsed under the snow. 

Your last two posts bring to mind the great Robert Frost poem, "Fire and Ice"

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

And if ifs and buts were snow we'd all have a very merry Christmas!

Very true.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Would have you stayed in the area if that happened or moved away? You don't need to answer that it if it is to personal. 

That is hard to say. At the time we said if it burned we would rebuild, but I am not sure if I could have. 

[GHweatherChris]

19 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Living life today! Out in your neck of the woods today for a little biking and weather watching. 30 mph mist in my face!  Was a great time and enjoyed the waves breaking over the jetty near the tower.  Also treated myself to some fish and chips at the Fish Shack 

 

 

Where is that?

[Jesse]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Where is that?

Beverly Hills 112020

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Jesse said:

Beverly Hills 112020

Man that was a great show!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Your last two posts bring to mind the great Robert Frost poem, "Fire and Ice"

One of the schools in Silverton is named Robert Frost. 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er Meh, Bleh, Poops

 

Give it time. In -ENSOs with W-1 stratwarms, the cold tends to lag the u-wind reversal. Or if it’s massive enough like 1988/89, it can be concurrent.

Here we have mediocre tropical forcing for western cold until mid-Jan (since late Dec is still somewhat zonal), but it’s favorable for WAFz thru NPAC, so when things flip, that cold pool is probably unshackled.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals