December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So... what's everyones plans for the early start of summer?

Going to hop on the jetski! 

[Phil]

 

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Might be a decent investment for this winter to come in as a region wide stinker.  Might set the table for a stellar 2021-22?  Might be more enjoyable without a deadly pandemic running rampant.

Maybe we should take a vote...

I have a sense 2021/22 is going to be blocky as hell.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What have I missed today.

PDX snuck down to 43 this evening.

[Gradient Keeper]

CMCE says the GEFS is on crack....

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The part of winter that La Nina most profoundly effects isn't here yet.  I can just imagine how grim this forum would have been at this point in 1988-89.

And 1988/89 was/is a top-5 satellite era analog for this winter, as well.

[snow_wizard]

The CPC outlook is indeed nice.  It has WA with the highest chance of being below normal than any state Jan - Mar including the month of January specifically.  In fact for Jan - Mar is has us in the third color of blue.  About the best I've seen from them.

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO Day 3

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What have I missed today.

We went from a big puget sound snowstorm to a big Oregon snowstorm to a big Victoria snowstorm to winter being completely cancelled and the experts at the CPC being full of sh*t!!

[snow_wizard]

Why do we always do this to ourselves?  It's mid December and everyone is giving up already.  Just dumb.  I will never forget how people had the razor blade out in early Dec 2008....that one sure turned out ok.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

So I see it’s back to winter cancel, woe is me, I’m going to eat some worms.

Go team 50˚F rain! Multiple wins each winter!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Hmmm....

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do we always do this to ourselves?  It's mid December and everyone is giving up already.  Just dumb.  I will never forget how people had the razor blade out in early Dec 2008....that one sure turned out ok.

Seems every PNW blast is preceded by multiple winter cancels on this forum. Typical affair.

[snow_wizard]

It looks like the low is going north on this run.  Bummer.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do we always do this to ourselves?  It's mid December and everyone is giving up already.  Just dumb.  I will never forget how people had the razor blade out in early Dec 2008....that one sure turned out ok.

Who’s giving up?  January has a ton of potential although I have my doubts it will be of a truly meridional variety.  

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do we always do this to ourselves?  It's mid December and everyone is giving up already.  Just dumb.  I will never forget how people had the razor blade out in early Dec 2008....that one sure turned out ok.

Hard to know if it would be better or worse if the models were deadly accurate past 7 days.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[TacomaWaWx]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least there is still a legit snow threat early next week.  Just hard to know where will be hit (if anywhere) right now.

Doesn’t seen like there’s any snow threat for the lowlands from Eugene to Vancouver at this point. Still lots of hope for January and February! 

[Deweydog]

This is a bit of a lesson about living and dying by weekly and 35 day ensemble blends...

[TacomaWaWx]

49/43 0.06” today. Up to 2.35” on the month. 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Lots of angles when it comes to the science of dewisms.

Last January may have been an absolute worst case scenario in that it blew its proverbial load while sparing most of the region from its most impressive effects.

Admittedly somewhat arbitrary, but we did go from from December 1998 to January 2007 without 500-1000mb thicknesses dropping below 516dm.  Despite the swing and a miss, we managed it in January.

And conversely, mid January 2017 produced some major-blast level numbers here locally in spite of fairly marginal upper level conditions. I got down to 7 here, which didn't happen at all between 1998 and 2009.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Who’s giving up?  January has a ton of potential although I have my doubts it will be of a truly meridional variety.  

For a second I thought you might forget to throw in the hedge...

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hard to know if it would be better or worse if the models were deadly accurate past 7 days.

You wouldn’t know either way since you don’t look at them that far out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Now the Oregon cascades get rain all weekend and almost no snow Monday. Lol

[van city]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now the Oregon cascades get rain all weekend and almost no snow Monday. Lol

Hmmm

 

[wxmet]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do we always do this to ourselves?  It's mid December and everyone is giving up already.  Just dumb.  I will never forget how people had the razor blade out in early Dec 2008....that one sure turned out ok.

This forum needs a Panic Room thread 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now the Oregon cascades get rain all weekend and almost no snow Monday. Lol

Drove over Tombstone Pass east of Sweet Home earlier this evening. It was VERY snowy.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

You wouldn’t know either way since you don’t look at them that far out.

If they were accurate, I would!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And conversely, mid January 2017 produced some major-blast level numbers here locally in spite of fairly marginal upper level conditions. I got down to 7 here, which didn't happen at all between 1998 and 2009.

Exactly.  It doesn’t “feel” as though we have a ton of ammo in the chamber from a pent up perspective.

[Phil]

Goodbye PV? 00z GFS goes Guantanamo on the motherfücker. Pretty much perfect timing too (ahead of return to constructive interference over Maritime Continent mid-Jan).

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

This forum needs a Panic Room thread 

Fred needs to install a panic button. Every time you press it, a snowy EURO or GFS appears

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Lots of angles when it comes to the science of dewisms.

Last January may have been an absolute worst case scenario in that it blew its proverbial load while sparing most of the region from its most impressive effects.

Admittedly somewhat arbitrary, but we did go from from December 1998 to January 2007 without 500-1000mb thicknesses dropping below 516dm.  Despite the swing and a miss, we managed it in January as well as in February 2018.

Also, minor grumble, but 2/17/2006 did deliver some 516 magic

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0217.php

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Goodbye PV? 00z GFS goes Guantanamo on the motherfücker. Pretty much perfect timing too (ahead of return to constructive interference over Maritime Continent mid-Jan.

Would this translate in a SSW?

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Exactly.  It doesn’t “feel” as though we have a ton of ammo in the chamber from a pent up perspective.

If "due" was a thing, I'd think it would apply more to large scale, not small scale anomalies like Jan 2017 in Portland.

[MossMan]

I am a member of the John Deere lawn tractor forum on FB...There must have been about 20 posts of people on the east coast using their plow or snowblower attachment removing gobs of snow...A bit depressing. 

[Phil]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Would this translate in a SSW?

That is a SSW, verbatim. A major one.

[Jesse]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Exactly.  It doesn’t “feel” as though we have a ton of ammo in the chamber from a pent up perspective.

I think the only problem is the chamber keeps getting smaller and the ammo is slowly shifting from 40 caliber to BBs

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Also, minor grumble, but 2/17/2006 did deliver some 516 magic

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0217.php

Sh*t, my bad.  It did indeed.  Those snowless f*ckers always sneak through.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I think the only problem is the chamber keeps getting smaller and the ammo is slowly shifting from 40 caliber to BBs

That’s about to change in a big, big way.