Tom Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 There is an interesting battle in the 15day plus range where a ridge wants to build in. Euro ensembles and weeklies bring in major warmth. It will be interesting if the LRC continues its pattern or if a ridge builds in and takes hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 Both the AO/NAO tank come mid month, meanwhile, the PNA heads into positive territory. All 3 signs point to a chilly period. I think the models will respond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 this pattern reminds me of last year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 12z Euro blasting mid 40's for highs on Friday for IA/WI...hello late November! This is going to be a shock to the system for sure. At least we have bon fire weather coming for this weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 12z Euro blasting mid 40's for highs on Friday for IA/WI...hello late November! This is going to be a shock to the system for sure. At least we have bon fire weather coming for this weekend! That would be nuts to have highs that low! wow! I am going to start a thread for a long range/early winter discussion. When have we had major warmth this year...!? That's the kind of thing, I wouldn't believe it till I see (feel) it! haha Medium range discussion from BUF. GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE TRENDTOWARDS A -NAO/-AO REGIME STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGHALL OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COUPLED WITH CHANGES ALREADY UNDERWAY INTHE PACIFIC...AS RECENT ROSSBY WAVE DISPERSION INTO THE MIDLATITUDES FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC HASAMPLIFIED THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEWDAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN RE-CURVE EAST OFJAPAN AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...WITH THAT INFLUX OF TROPICALENERGY FORCING FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVERTHE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CASCADE DOWNSTREAM AND AID IN STRONGAMPLIFICATION OVER NORTH AMERICA...YIELDING A +PNA PATTERN IN MOSTENSEMBLES. THE COUPLED +PNA AND -NAO PATTERN WILL PRODUCE ANANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES ANDFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY 8-14 PERIOD. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 That would be nuts to have highs that low! wow! I am going to start a thread for a long range/early winter discussion. When have we had major warmth this year...!? That's the kind of thing, I wouldn't believe it till I see (feel) it! haha Medium range discussion from BUF.There ya go, same thing I pointed out earlier today. I think JB is going to bust on his warm eastern forecast...IMO. We have seen this many times over the past 10 months (especially last Fall/Winter/Spring) when the models saw warmth, but it didn't come. We're entering that time of year we have to start sniffing these patterns out as the jet is strengthening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 JB has been downplaying about how Accuweather was predicting the Polar Vortex intrusion towards the end of September and his thoughts of this happening was slim to nill. I do believe in many of JB's thoughts and predictions, but this one he might be wrong on. According to what is happening in the western Pacific (near Japan) and the teleconnections begin to respond to this, it may be a very chilly ending to this month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 8, 2014 Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 18z NAM predicted rainfall for the next 72 hours. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 Today in Alberta! http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/september-snow-blankets-parts-of-southern-alberta-1.1996893 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 Des Moines AFD is a good read. Possible tornadoes and 4-5 inch rains in the next couple days. Highs late week may not hit 60 and may set record low max temps. Friday night 30s are possible. The word "frost" was mentioned. Wild weather and I hope it continues into fall/winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 Today in Alberta! http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/september-snow-blankets-parts-of-southern-alberta-1.1996893That is impressive! Sept 8th! Makes me feel good about our winter if they are already getting snow up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 That's a cold rain for here in Iowa.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_093_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 A big area of heavy rain at that. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 A big area of heavy rain at that. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/09/08/18/NAM_221_2014090818_F72_PCPIN_72_HR.pngLooks like a nasty squall line may hit in the wee hours of the morning when everyone is sleeping. Those type of events aren't the best of timing since its late at night. Nonetheless, heavy rain and severe storms are in store. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 Picked up an inch of rain overnight on the west edge of the pretty stationary MCS. Much more rain fell north and east of me, even just a couple miles. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 From Skilling's FB wall. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 12z Euro even colder and for a longer period next week. Has highs not going above the upper 60's through Thursday. Still showing mid 40's in IA on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 12z Euro even colder and for a longer period next week. Has highs not going above the upper 60's through Thursday. Still showing mid 40's in IA on Friday. Gross Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 This is quite the discussion from Chicago LOT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...CONDITIONSWILL BE THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THE SFC LOW ISBEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVESOFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RAMPING UP OVERTHE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SETTING UP VERY STRONGWARM/MOIST ADVECTION POINTING INTO THE MIDWEST. THISAFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THENOSE OF A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXTENDING FROM WRN IOWA INTO CNTRLIL. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTOTHE REGION WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANENORBERT ADVECT OVER THE REGION AT THE MID LEVELS. THE MODELS HAVEBEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A SWATH OF PWATS OF 2.0 TO 2.5INCHES POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTIONAHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COUPLED JET ALOFT WILL ALL COMBINE TO GENERATESTRONG AND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE SHEARIN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN SLY SFC WINDS AND 50 KT SWLY WINDS AT925-850MB TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE SUPPORTING SOMEISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH THE GENERAL THUNDER. SPC HASOUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING STRONG DAMAGING WINDSAND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX/DVN INDICATETHE FREEZING LEVEL AT 13KFT AND WITH PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AHEADOF THE COLD FRONT...THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UNTILTHE FROPA. SO...WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGROTATING UPDRAFTS SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL...THE HIGH FREEZINGLEVELS SHOULD GIVE AMPLE TIME FOR SOME MELTING. AS FOR THE WINDTHREAT...WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POINTING OVER THEAREA...STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN...PARTICULARLY IN THEWARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULDBE ABLE TO FORM. SO...STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERNDURING THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING.HEAVY RAINFALL...THROUGH THE NIGHT...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO MORELINES OR CLUSTERS...AND EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A LARGE AREA OFTHUNDERSTORMS. WITH FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL TO ABOUT 700MBSWLY...AND WLY-WNWLY JET-LEVEL WINDS...CELL MOVEMENT WITHIN THEOVERALL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE LARGERSCALE PATTERN IS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST. SO...ANTICIPATETHAT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR REPEATED DEVELOPMENT ORTRAINING OF STORMS. ALL ELEMENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR ASIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINPRODUCERS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3INCHES PER HOUR FROM SOME STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.FORTUNATELY...THE PATTERN WILL BE SLOWLY...BUT STEADILYPROGRESSIVE...SO RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD RATHER THAN CONFINED TOA SMALL AREA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT STORM TOTAL QPF SHOULD BEARND 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES. IN AREAS OF TRAINING OR REPEATED STORMDEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL WILLBE POSSIBLE. THE MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILLBE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL INACTIVITY DURG THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER UPTICK INACTIVITY DURG THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONTPUSHES THROUGH NWRN INDIANA. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 GrossOn top of that, Euro ensembles have a different look now and are no longer showing ridging in the region. In fact, showing another cool down late next week and a more intense one on the horizon for later in the month. A series of cold fronts is what the LRC had in store for this month. It's fascinating to see the models show that trend even though they weren't in the beginning. Teleconnections also support colder than normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 On top of that, Euro ensembles have a different look now and are no longer showing ridging in the region. In fact, showing another cool down late next week and a more intense one on the horizon for later in the month. A series of cold fronts is what the LRC had in store for this month. It's fascinating to see the models show that trend even though they weren't in the beginning. Teleconnections also support colder than normal. Have to watch to see how many Typhoons might recurve! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 9, 2014 Report Share Posted September 9, 2014 I hope these storms don't knock out any power overnight. That was a pretty intense worded LOT discussion to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 QPF totals...E IA/N NW IL in the bullseye.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 Strong storms blew up over sw/sc Iowa and then sank southeast from there, pretty much blowing up the expected big rain farther north. Even the light to moderate rain shield couldn't make it north of hw20 in Iowa. I managed to pick up 1.19", which gives me a nice 2-day total of 2.18". That's more than enough rain at this time of year. I don't want 9 inches like Kirksville, MO received overnight. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 Had a nice soaker last night as well...ORD picked up 1.29". Looking forward to a nice stretch of dry weather. Hoping this chill takes care of the mosquitos. Wondering how much, if any, leaves begin to change color during this cold spell into next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 A nasty Friday shaping up for NE/IA with overcast skies and showery weather! Very chilly temps, probably not getting out of the 40's. I'm expecting some Frost advisory to be issued Friday night all the way from NE/IA to MN/WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 i only picked up .30" last night. way less than forecasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 A nasty Friday shaping up for NE/IA with overcast skies and showery weather! Very chilly temps, probably not getting out of the 40's. I'm expecting some Frost advisory to be issued Friday night all the way from NE/IA to MN/WI. holy cow that is cold!! WWA was posted for the black hills; they are expecting anywhere from 3-6" of snow!! I picked up 3.30" of rain last night, we are in a flood warning until tonight, part of highway 92 is closed west of Osceola b/c of water running across. I have seen over a foot of rain in the past 4 weeks! Looks like frost advisory's will be a good bet for us on Friday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 Total of 1" of rain here. Storm itself was pretty meager. Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 DMX saying northern Iowa may hit 32 friday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 A nasty Friday shaping up for NE/IA with overcast skies and showery weather! Very chilly temps, probably not getting out of the 40's. I'm expecting some Frost advisory to be issued Friday night all the way from NE/IA to MN/WI. Low 40s is going to be a shock after the last few days! Cold front only 20 miles away now. Falling into the 50s quickly behind it. About 0.80" of rain - will have to double check that though when I get home. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 Is the CFSv2 starting to sniff out the end of the month cold shot??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 Starting tomorrow, chilly air invades my area until further notice. Mainly 60s for highs and 40s for lows, although, Saturday could be exceptionally chilly with highs not getting out of the upper 50s and lows probably flirting with upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Hello Autumn!!! Also, I would not be surprised to see some color on the trees next week. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 Is the CFSv2 starting to sniff out the end of the month cold shot???Wow Tom...that is some chilly air invading our country. Hopefully, it can move slightly more east and cover the Great Lakes region. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 Starting tomorrow, chilly air invades my area until further notice. Mainly 60s for highs and 40s for lows, although, Saturday could be exceptionally chilly with highs not getting out of the upper 50s and lows probably flirting with upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Hello Autumn!!! Also, I would not be surprised to see some color on the trees next week.My forecast grid is calling for a low of 34 Saturday morning, is this mid October??? Our beans are finally starting to turn color so I'm sure the trees should be doing the same thing in areas. Farmers will be battling harvest and snow if it doesn't dry out soon..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 Is the CFSv2 starting to sniff out the end of the month cold shot???This is prolly the cold shot that Andrew has been talking about. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 holy cow that is cold!! WWA was posted for the black hills; they are expecting anywhere from 3-6" of snow!! I picked up 3.30" of rain last night, we are in a flood warning until tonight, part of highway 92 is closed west of Osceola b/c of water running across. I have seen over a foot of rain in the past 4 weeks! Looks like frost advisory's will be a good bet for us on Friday. Check that, wsw for black hills and it's early September!! 3-7" of snow, I have a question tom, how close is this to the storm last fall in the LRC that hit the same areas?? Has to be close which means the new LRC should be starting soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 holy cow that is cold!! WWA was posted for the black hills; they are expecting anywhere from 3-6" of snow!! I picked up 3.30" of rain last night, we are in a flood warning until tonight, part of highway 92 is closed west of Osceola b/c of water running across. I have seen over a foot of rain in the past 4 weeks! Looks like frost advisory's will be a good bet for us on Friday. When do the black hills usually get their first snow? Isn't this a bit early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 Autumn is certainly coming out of the gates fast this year. This current cold shot has some legs to it. Highs will be in the 50's and 60's for a good 5 day stretch before things warm into low 70's for a day or two (which is still below normal). @ James, that end of the month predicted cold shot is something that may have to do with the new LRC cycle setting up. We'll see how this may evolve in the coming week. It's nice to see the forum come to alive and ppl coming out of hibernation! Hahaha...At this time last year I was rather excited about the winter season. This year, I'm even more excited knowing what could be one hell ova Winter season! So many similarities showing up and the pieces to the puzzle coming together. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 11, 2014 Report Share Posted September 11, 2014 Check that, wsw for black hills and it's early September!! 3-7" of snow, I have a question tom, how close is this to the storm last fall in the LRC that hit the same areas?? Has to be close which means the new LRC should be starting soon.It's still the same LRC cycle accompanied by a very strong cold front that is causing up sloping snowfall. It's not necessarily a "system" snow like we saw last October. It just goes to show you how strong this punch of cold air is to cause up sloping in early September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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