1/24 - 1/26 Clipper Train, and Arctic Frontal Passage

[DominicR]

NAM clown maps still showing a solid 4-5 inches with this clipper. WWA should be issued shortly. Notice GFS looked pretty juicy as well with 6 inch amounts south of city.

[Sciascia]

Euro never has temps go above 25F at ORD...south of a line from Kankakee to Peoria have a chance to get above 32F.

I must be getting some wrong info from folks at AmWx then...lol.

[Scott26]

NAM clown maps still showing a solid 4-5 inches with this clipper. WWA should be issued shortly. Notice GFS looked pretty juicy as well with 6 inch amounts south of city.

15Z SREF mean is almost 5 inches at ORD. This is definitely shaping up to be a high end advisory event. Track looks perfect for the Chicagoland area.

[Tom]

Only if we can get some LehS...not complaining though, going to be nice to load up on the snow pack.  The scenery is getting better, snowpack around 6", just would like more snow on the Roofs and Drifts! 

[jaster220]

Only if we can get some LehS...not complaining though, going to be nice to load up on the snow pack.  The scenery is getting better, snowpack around 6", just would like more snow on the Roofs and Drifts! 

 

We're doing a bit better in SW Michigan then. After today, should range from about 12" inland, to 20+ in the snowbelts west of Kalamazoo. Got about 4" at my place and upwards of a foot fell in some of the LES belt counties since last evening. Lots of drifting has caused N-S roads to become impassable in the counties and vehicles abandoned too. If tomorrow gets drifts going some more - watch out!

[MarcusBeier]

Just an update from Southwestern Oakland county|Northville MI. Picked up about 2.5 from the Clipper last night/this morning. Winds blew that snow all over...theres almost bare grass in some areas with 12-18inch drifts in others. Looking forward to another 1-3 tonight =)  cant wait for another big one, but im not complaining at all as atleast its not melting anytime soon

[Tony]

18z GFS showing snowshower activity with the artic frontal passage. Don't know exactly where this will setup but where it does lookout as the strength of artic fronts are always underestimated and this could create major blizzard conditions for an hour or two as well as lay down a heavy amount of snow in a very short period.

[Scott26]

18z GFS showing snowshower activity with the artic frontal passage. Don't know exactly where this will setup but where it does lookout as the strength of artic fronts are always underestimated and this could create major blizzard conditions for an hour or two as well as lay down a heavy amount of snow in a very short period.

LOT already talking about possibly upgrading to a Blizzard Warning Sunday afternoon into the evening for blowing snow and heavy snow shower activity.

[East Dubzz]

Would love to know what the DVN is thinking exactly, but ya know, they just decided not to do an AFD yet. Lol.

[Tom]

Microcast has heaviest band along the I-88/I-90 corridor...Up to 5"

[Geos]

LOT already talking about possibly upgrading to a Blizzard Warning Sunday afternoon into the evening for blowing snow and heavy snow shower activity.

 

Wow!

No kidding.

 

 

OVERALL...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING HIT OF SNOW ACROSS THE

AREA...THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINDOW OF

MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...THIS

STILL APPEARS TO BE A 2 TO 4 INCH EVENT FOR MOST AREAS.

HOWEVER...THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD EASILY PRODUCE SNOW

RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...AND PRODUCE UP TO 4 TO 5

INCHES IN SOME AREAS WITHIN ONLY A 4 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD. IT CURRENTLY

APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY FALL

FROM AROUND DIXON EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE JOLIET AREA...WITH

2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TO OBTAIN THESE SNOW AMOUNTS I

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A 15-20 TO 1 RATIO NORTH...WHERE THE DGZ WILL BE

THE DEEPEST...AND A 12-15 TO 1 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

 

THE SNOW SHOULD ONSET AROUND 1 OR 2 AM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

AND AROUND 3 AM IN THE CHICAGO AREA....AND LAST THROUGH MID

MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID

LEVELS. GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL AT A RAPID RATE...I HAVE

CHOSEN TO ISSUE AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR

2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

 

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING

DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL

BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN

SATURATED BELOW THE DGZ...AND HENCE THE CLOUDS COULD BECOME VOID OF

ICE CRYSTALS SETTING UP DRIZZLE. IN SPITE OF THIS POTENTIAL...I HAVE

CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...DUE TO

ITS LIKELIHOOD OF BEING SHORT LIVED.

 

ALTHOUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY BE QUIET FOR A PERIOD...AFTER THE PRECIP

ABATES...I HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REASON FOR DOING THIS IS BECAUSE A STRONG

ARCTIC FRONT IS SET TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...STRONG

PRESSURE RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE

BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE

STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH

WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE

WINDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP

ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEWLY FALLEN DRY SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND.

 

IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOW SHOWERS WILL BE

OCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONG WINDS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES

ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY

DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FALLING SNOW IN

CONJUNCTION WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD RESULT IN

BETTER CHANCES FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AT THE PRESENT...I HAVE

CHOSEN TO COVER THIS THREAT WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...DUE

TO UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME AND HOW MUCH

ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME. IF IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT

AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLS WITH THE STRONG WINDS SUNDAY EVENING...IT MAY

BE NECESSARY TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO EITHER A WINTER STORM OR

BLIZZARD WARNING.

 

 

One key thing to watch for is whether freezing drizzle does occur. If it does, then the blowing and drifting will be reduced. If, not then travel Sunday night and Monday will be a real challenge.

[DominicR]

Microcast has heaviest band along the I-88/I-90 corridor...Up to 5"

 

That's me

[Tony]

I don't think we have a chance at any drizzle(maybe far southern sections). It will start snowing in the single digits and will probably be ending in the upper teens. The warmup will occur after the snow ends.

[Geos]

[gosaints]

I don't think we have a chance at any drizzle(maybe far southern sections). It will start snowing in the single digits and will probably be ending in the upper teens. The warmup will occur after the snow ends.

Will still slow down the blowing snow

[Geos]

Will still slow down the blowing snow

 

It would - like it did today.

 

Snowing there yet?

 

[MarcusBeier]

So this thing is jetting just south of me with the strongest snow =( bummer...any chance it pulls a bit north and east and holds together for SEMI?

[Geos]

High clouds from the clipper are pushing over head now. LOT mentions heavy snow wording for tomorrow morning.

[East Dubzz]

Radar looks good. Models still looking good. Just lost a big basketball game, please, gimme this snowstorm at least!

[Geos]

Seeing the snow reports coming out of northeast Iowa now. 

 

Newest RAP run.

 

[Madtown]

come to daddy just lost the hockey game give me this

[Tom]

Some real heavy snow ripping past RFD right now...heading due east and should be at ORD in about 30-45 min...Radar looks impressive

[Sciascia]

The timing of this is unfortunate; I've been up too long today to catch this live. It will be kinda cool to wake up to several inches of new snow, though.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Really lucked out with this clipper so far, moderate to heavy snow piling up for 2-3 hours.  Should end up in the range of 3-4" of snow.

[East Dubzz]

I'm mad I am not feeling the best. Had to go to bed last night and wasn't able to stay up because of that. But I got 3" on the dot at my house, which I am extremely happy with!

[Sciascia]

Woke up hoping to see the last couple hours of snow, and it's already over. Super fast clipper.

[james1976]

maybe 2" here. wind has blown it around a lot. DMX talking thundersnow later!

[Sciascia]

maybe 2" here. wind has blown it around a lot. DMX talking thundersnow later!

Nice! Thundersnow potential is always fun, so definitely jealous a little bit, lol.

 

ORD received 1.8" and has taken 3rd place in the all-time snowiest months of January. Don't think there will be many more snow chances between now & Saturday, so the 50" mark will have to wait until February.

[dubuque473]

Looks like around 3" for me.

 

I am kind of anal on keeping the sidewalks and driveway of my corner lot pretty neat....I better take some Prozac because the next few days it ain't happening

One of the local mets last night said if snow is what you like there is a storm late in the week that should deliver so turning my attention to that now..

[Geos]

I missed the whole system. Woke up at 8:30, not a single flake falling.

 

3.0" here. 23:1 ratio.

Almost to 50" for the season.

[Scott26]

3.4 inches here. Pretty solid, but no one seemed to hit 4 inches. Oh well...

[Geos]

Let's use this thread for tonight's Arctic Express frontal passage snow.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Let's use this thread for tonight's Arctic Express frontal passage snow.

 

 

I doubt it goes that far north. I'm thinking it'll passes through SE Iowa.

[Scott26]

Let's use this thread for tonight's Arctic Express frontal passage snow.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/rap/255/maps/2014/01/26/14/RAP_255_2014012614_F09_CREF_SURFACE.png

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/rap/255/maps/2014/01/26/14/RAP_255_2014012614_F12_CREF_SURFACE.png

That would be sweet, but RAP is likely way to far north.

[East Dubzz]

HRRR is kind of far north too, but I still think it'll be further south than that. Either way, looks too far south to really do much for me. Which I am fine with because it already got 3" and the people further south need it more than me.

[Madtown]

right around 4" here was an awesome snow around 230 or so big flakes and fluffy

[james1976]

just dropped 5 degress in an hour. light snow falling now

[WBadgersW]

Woke up to more snow than what I expected. I was surprised when I measured 4".

[Geos]

Up to 27° here with mostly sunny skies atm.

 

Found some drifting occurring.

 

 

[Niko]

So far picked up 3.1inches of snow and still snowing. Currently at 14F. Very nice indeed!