1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

S on CMC and drier in IA-- but understandable compared to the ridiculous 12Z

[Grizzcoat]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You saying that's the reason for lower amounts on the non-Euro models?

No- I just think the system is wrapping in warmer air aloft. What makes sense if TSSN goes off

[jaster220]

Lost track. When is everything within the normal ROAB networks again?

[jcwxguy]

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

No- I just think the system is wrapping in warmer air aloft.

GFS is notoriously accurate at doing that too. To me, that would mean less than ideal ratios and/or IP potential on the increase. I know I'm in the minority here, but gimme 3" of concrete vs 5" of powder-puff stuff.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Canadian at 96 hours 

[hlcater]

Overall trend is a touch south and perhaps half a hair drier relative to 12z. Though in the QPF department, it's not enough that I'd consider it a trend. A bit south definitely is though. Hoping it comes back north tomorrow for selfish reasons.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Jim Flowers put out another update a bit ago after the 0Z Canadian came out. 
Said he’s going with 9-10” in Omaha and feels everything is pretty locked in at this point.

[snowstorm83]

4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Jim Flowers put out another update a bit ago after the 0Z Canadian came out. 
Said he’s going with 9-10” in Omaha and feels everything is pretty locked in at this point.

I’m feeling pretty good about 8”+ at KLNK. Double digits may be a steeper climb, but this is a good a chance as any. Trying not to get too excited, but a big a dog is nearly a lock at this point!

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

I’m feeling pretty good about 8”+ at KLNK. Double digits may be a steeper climb, but this is a good a chance as any. Trying not to get too excited, but a big a dog is nearly a lock at this point!

How often have you had double-digits btw?

[snowstorm83]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

How often have you had double-digits btw?

Daily records only go back to 1948 unfortunately, only 5 times 1 day snowfall, but 17 times 2 day. 

[james1976]

15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z Canadian at 96 hours 

Looks like that includes the mid week system as well

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

Daily records only go back to 1948 unfortunately, only 5 times 1 day snowfall, but 17 times 2 day. 

1 every 4.2 years. Better than I'd think listening to how moisture starved it seems to be out in that region. Hope you S NE guys get one this time.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie holding serve- maybe tick N-- actually more than a tick in E.IA

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Looks like that includes the mid week system as well

Yes. It really never quits snowing here. 

[jcwxguy]

Ukie

[CentralNebWeather]

Ukie through 102 hours. 

[gabel23]

Ok with the euro the only major model left and with it being as consistent as it has been; I would be shocked if the watch and or eventual warning doesn’t get nudged north. Gonna be an interesting afd in the morning for the weather offices. 

[Hawkeye]

Wave 1 seems to be a bit of a dud here in Cedar Rapids.  The heaviest actually appears to be moving south of CR.  U of Iowa webcam shows it snowing pretty good in Iowa City and radar shows some yellow spots.  It's not even snowing here.

[hlcater]

32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Wave 1 seems to be a bit of a dud here in Cedar Rapids.  The heaviest actually appears to be moving south of CR.  U of Iowa webcam shows it snowing pretty good in Iowa City and radar shows some yellow spots.  It's not even snowing here.

Yup. IC should do well relatively speaking, but CR should top out with about an inch.

[bud2380]

It’s snowing pretty good down here. I’m not stepping outside to measure but I don’t think it’s over an inch. 

[bud2380]

NWS blend of models

[jcwxguy]

Euro, 

 

 

 

[hlcater]

Euro is south and weaker. CR/IC playing with the northern edge again. 

[Stormy]

20 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

It’s snowing pretty good down here. I’m not stepping outside to measure but I don’t think it’s over an inch. 

Same here. Heard a bit of sleet or something on the windows a bit ago.

[hlcater]

Yea relative to the past several runs, the 00z euro is awful for E IA. Nebraska still does well and looks locked in for a historic event at this point. E IA is trending towards a more garden variety(7-10”) big event with every run. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro looks just as good as the 12z run at 500 mb, but just jumps south at the surface.

[Hawkeye]

It's finally snowing decently here tonight.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Euro through 90 hours. 

[snowstorm83]

Well at least Lincoln still gets 9-10" on the Euro even after another jump south lol

[The Snowman]

Bummer shift on the Euro run for Omaha

[Stormy]

I measured 1.5” just now and I was forecast to get less than an inch. What I hear on the windows actually is grauple which will cut a bit into totals.

Finally had our family gathering today that we normally have on Christmas so I’m trying to get caught up on this thread. 

[snowstorm83]

8 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Bummer shift on the Euro run for Omaha

Honestly I think if you're along or just 20-30 miles north of I-80 in NE/IA, you're fine. With the tight gradient, subtle random shifts make a huge difference. 00z Euro is still 6-8" 10:1 for Omaha. 

[Hawkeye]

I have to retract my wave 1 dud post.  It's dumping pretty good now and I have over an inch.

[snowstorm83]

00z EPS basically the same. 7-9" mean Omaha/Lincoln. 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Kuchera- (my worries are valid- if this continues and whose to say they won't-  mby it's goes to 3-4" from 11".)

[Stormhunter87]

Posted in the wrong thread lol but I think the 80 corridor is in for a surprise with this system. Jim has been posting like crazy and alot of interesting turns. My gut is feeling 6-8 but I'm not going to be surprised if we can push 10.

[hlcater]

43 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I have to retract my wave 1 dud post.  It's dumping pretty good now and I have over an inch.

Yea CR looks to pick up about 2" from this after all.

1.5” measured now and still coming down at a moderate clip. With 2ish hours of snow left, 2” will be easy.

[Hawkeye]

06z HRRR

[Grizzcoat]

^^ was going to post- here is the 10:1 which is probably more like it and that HRRR is usually over done in long range--