Money Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 It has temps in the 10-20 range in wi and n il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 also twc is talking about this and they are talking wind driven snow that tells this big snowstorm is a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks like GFS brings back the warmth after Christmas for a little while. Temperatures rising into the upper forties.It's one run, look at the ensembles and you shouldn't jump into conclusions after seeing 1 or 2 operational runs. Â BTW, one thing you should pay attn to is watch the GFS's bias to swing troughs/energy to fast to the east in the mid/long range, just like it's doing on the 12z run. Â Remember these runs and then see where it is 5 days from now. Â I recommend doing these cast studies on your own with each of the models and you will notice them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Take it with a huge grain of salt but the Canadian ensemble mean has the low over eastern lake michigan at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 also twc is talking about this and they are talking wind driven snow that tells this big snowstorm is a blizzard.Doh! Â You mentioned that "B" word. Â Hang on there buddy, plenty of time to start saying that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Doh! Â You mentioned that "B" word. Â Hang on there buddy, plenty of time to start saying that.sounds like homer simpson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I like a track from Louisiana to Chicago and up the east coast of Lake Michigan. Similar to a storm quite a few Christmas's ago. 1 WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I just made a new Thread for the Christmas Eve storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 also twc is talking about this and they are talking wind driven snow that tells this big snowstorm is a blizzard. Tim do you think this has a shot at being a blizzard with possible thundersnow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 A very active weather year in NE Wisconsin. NWS GRB Year in Review WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 The Clipper or whatever it is for early next week needs to be watched --- here is DMX take on it and beyond. The EURO has thickness levels well below 540 along with 850 temps below 0C for most of IA but surface temps near 40. Doesn't make any sense. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND EXTENDSINTO TUESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE MOVING FORWARD WITH A CONSENSUSSOLUTION AS THE GFS IS QUITE MILD WHILE THE EURO IS NOW SUGGESTINGA SOLUTION WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE PRECIPARRIVES INTO MONDAY. THE EURO SUGGESTS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN/SNOWMIX. GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENTMIX TRENDS FOR NOW...AND MONITOR DURING SUBSEQUENT MODEL PACKAGES.THE ONE TREND THAT IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE IS COLDER AIR AS NEXTWEEK PROGRESSES. AS A STRONG PACNW STREAM WAVE ADVANCES EAST INTOTHE WESTERN STATES...MIDWEST RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWNAND BECOME DISPLACED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SPELL ATRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OFTHE EXTENDED. AS THE WAVE TUESDAY DEEPENS...A RATHER STRONG SFCWAVE WILL EJECT NORTH NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS TO EASTERNMICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT GFS/EURO PACKAGES...THE MAINH850 MOISTURE PLUME...BETTER FORCING...AND HIGHER PRECIPITATIONAMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END UP EAST OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR FORGENERAL WESTWARD DRIFT NEXT SEVERAL PACKAGES...THIS SOMETIMESOCCURS WITH WINTER STORM EVOLUTION IN MODEL PACKAGES...FIRSTPROJECTING THE EVENT TOO FAR EAST THEN PULLING IT BACK AS THEEVENT NEARS. The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Man GFS drops a turd. Hardly any precip and just cold. Western New York gets crushed though. See what the EURO does. Need to get something out of this before NW flow dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014  Yeah those East Coaster's will not be happy with rain while we have snow! Glad there is something finally to track in the next 7 days! ---Was able to get about 15 minutes of sun today, which is more than I've seen in about 5 days. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121718/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I thought the upgrades to the GFS was supposed to have allready taken place?? Is that not what the GFS parallel is?? The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I thought the upgrades to the GFS was supposed to have allready taken place?? Is that not what the GFS parallel is??I read that by mid January they were supposed to have taken place...they are upgrading the GFS Par Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Thanks Tom! The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yesterday I was looking for a map to show the similarities of SST's from 1977-78 to our current SST's and JB just posted a nice article comparing this winter to 1977-78 & 2002-2003 as their analogs.  One thing he did mention and that caught my attention was the fact that there were many monster storms that hit the Great Lakes region in '77-'78.  Here we are, about 2 weeks into meteorological winter and we have already had a huge Pre Thanksgiving Storm in the Lakes and yet another about to hit Christmas Eve.  Is this a sign of things to come???  I think so.  These systems are fitting the pattern and I believe it wont be the last monster storm to hit the Lakes (hint: Jan 3-5th).      1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 You want to be in the Front Right and Left Rear exit region of the jet stream to get the most lift and snowfall....look at this jet structure... Tom, I hear this often but still don't get exactly where those two points would be on your map? Help me pls? anyone? Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Tom, I hear this often but still don't get exactly where those two points would be on your map? Help me pls? anyone? When looking at that map, the red colors indicated a jet stream max and strongest winds and you want to be near the nose of that Jet, on the right side of it.  Now, follow that jet down and around you can see the jet then bend to the right...that is the second piece of the jet and you want to be near the left rear exit or the left side of the jet.  Where these masses of air collide they produce the most "lift".  I learned this tool of forecasting by watching Tom Skilling.  Even when models are not showing that much precip days away from the event, I use this tool to get an idea where the precip may blossom.  Just like with this system, there isn't much precip thrown back westward, its always good for one to see how the jet stream is being forecast.  I've noticed that paying attn to the jet structure can give you a good idea of where precip will break out in future runs.  I'm very optimistic we will see future runs with this system producing a bigger comma shape head feature you see with large systems like this esp when they go negative tilt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 When looking at that map, the red colors indicated a jet stream max and strongest winds and you want to be near the nose of that Jet, on the right side of it.  Now, follow that jet down and around you can see the jet then bend to the right...that is the second piece of the jet and you want to be near the left rear exit or the left side of the jet.  Where these masses of air collide they produce the most "lift".  I learned this tool of forecasting by watching Tom Skilling.  Even when models are not showing that much precip days away from the event, I use this tool to get an idea where the precip may blossom.  Just like with this system, there isn't much precip thrown back westw, its always good for one to see how the jet stream is being forecast.  I've notice that paying attn to the jet structure can give you a good idea of where precip will break out in future runs.  I'm very optimistic we will see future runs with this system producing a bigger comma shape head feature you see with large systems like this esp when they go negative tilt. Awesome news. Thanks for breaking that down. Here's to hoping you're correct! Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 I am happy to report that it is snowing in midtown Kansas City. Haven't been able to say that in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS is further south witj the post christmas storm. Looks like the one to watch for the plains and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS is further south witj the post christmas storm. Looks like the one to watch for the plains and Great Lakes. Looks suppressed on the latest GFS for sure. Definitely needs to be watched as the energy emerges from the Rockies/4 Corners into the Plains. As long as we get that first storm out of the way it should have the ability to develop into something nice for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nice moderate snow now. Grass is covered and roads are snowpacked. Winter has officially begun here. Hopefully this gets the ball rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nice moderate snow now. Grass is covered and roads are snowpacked. Winter has officially begun here. Hopefully this gets the ball rolling. Sounds like your mood has changed since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Glad KC got some snow. Â Going there tomorrow for Christmas with relatives. Â Still have hopes for post Christmas storm across the plains. Â 06Z GFS really paints a large area of snow from the Central Rockies through the Plains on the 26-27. Â Probably will be lots of model changing in the next week. Â Â Merry Christmas to all. Â Love coming to this site daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow,I hope the CFS version 2 doesn't pan out because it's sucks unless you like to get snow showered to death. From now through January 5th nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 New JMA weeklies agreeing with a significantly cold pattern over the next 2 weeks with a SE ridge in play.  Notice the significant blocking developing over AK/NW NAMER and poking into the arctic regions. Week 3 & 4 the model still showing alot of blocking this far out but somehow squeezes a ridge into central. It's more than likely a cause of the model "thinking" the trough centered north of Hawaii "pushing" the west coast ridge into the central CONUS.  Nonetheless, I like to looks of this as it still is keeping a ridge near Cali/4 corners/Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nice cold shot at the end of the GFS... 1060 H moving into Montana with -20 to -30 high temps in that area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GGEM day after Xmas storm  http://i.imgur.com/SEqMLxK.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 wider view http://i.imgur.com/oNdw9H9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GGEM is nice but again we are looking at around 200hrs out and we all know this will change a hundred times. I guess the Gem had a better outcome for us wrt the Christmas storm but its all alone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Need that thing to shift south about one hundred miles lol. Would be nice to have after the current snow all melts by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z Euro taking the second system a little farther south but cuts up the OV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Unless that first system does something other than what the EURO and the GFS depict up in canada that second system isnt cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Once this system next weekend either gets squashed or becomes an EC storm then we can look forward to the next system which would be probably New Years week and we know what will happen with that....wash/rinse/repeat is all that needs to be said. What a waste of December so far and we could possibly go into the record books this month with regards to the least amount of snow, at least top 5. Just venting cause this setup we are seeing does not bode well for the Midwest. Sure systems look great 7 days out but as we get closer they seem to fall apart or not enough cold air or who knows what else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 The only thing certain is the out to sea call for this weekend surely the way to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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