Snowman5678 Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Weird, winds around you have gusted to a whopping 17 MPH. There is nothing moving in that would cause more than light breezy conditions. Yeah I know, I wish my station was in a better spot because it sucks at wind readings where it is. Highest gust it has recorded is 21 which is decently strong considering it is blocked. By my estimate winds gusting 35-45mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah I know, I wish my station was in a better spot because it sucks at wind readings where it is. Highest gust it has recorded is 21 which is decently strong considering it is blocked. By my estimate winds gusting 35-45mph. Doubtful tonight, things are stagnant until the front moves through towards morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 What are you trying to show here? They look identical. No cold!!!! It is colder 300 miles offshore than here. I mean what the 00z GFS operational shows is identical to the EURO weekly. The EURO control runs are the ones which show the upper level high more west. They were posted last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Doubtful tonight, things are stagnant until the front moves through towards morning. I'm on an exposed ridge so I usually get pretty wind really quickly. For some reason my little area gets good east winds while areas a couple miles away get none at all. North Bend has stations gusting between 24-39mph. Idk, I wasn't expecting the winds at all tonight. Next time I take the dogs out maybe ill take some video/audio of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 WRF also has 30-35 knot east wind gusts in my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 WRF also has 30-35 knot east wind gusts in my area. GFS.PNGNothing there to cause brown outs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 A chilly, wet day out here. 38/35. The cold air has been very stubborn. If we had gone into the pattern the past few days about 5 degrees colder it would have been a crippling ice storm out this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 CFS is still looking great for cold after the 20th...extending thru mid January. 10 day means over 5C below normal for Western WA. Really impressive! It really seems to be picking up on a big positive anomaly over the Bering Sea in the time frame shown. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Weird, winds around you have gusted to a whopping 17 MPH. There is nothing moving in that would cause more than light breezy conditions. The winds in east King County are far different than what you get there. The worst windstorms I've had here have been on clear days. In those cases it usually blows for 30 to 48 hours straight. Tonight it's a bit breezy but nothing to write home about here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Looking at the MJO the GFS indicates the wave will be in octant 3 in about 3 weeks and the ECMF shows octant 4 in about 2 weeks. During the winter most of our really good events come with the MJO somewhere in the 3 to 7 range. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Some places which are exposed to E to SE winds tonight are pushing in the 55 to 60 degree range. The crazy temperature roller coaster continues. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 I know this has nothing to do with anything we are talking about right now, but I just found some astonishing information from July 1901. I have a long term project I'm working on to transcribe the Seattle weather records onto the Excel spreadsheet that I like so much and found some pretty chilly looking low temps so I looked at records for Snoqualmie Falls and Sedro Woolley for that month. As it turns out July 1901 had multiple low temps below 40 including one sub freezing min at both stations. Snoqualmie dropped to 30 on the 12th and Sedro Woolley shows 31 on the 11th. I cannot even imagine the upper level pattern it would take to cause that so deep into the summer. Such an occurrence would be devastating to agriculture if it were to repeat. I'm sure wxstatman will appreciate the incredible rarity of this and knowing him he probably already knows about it. No doubt this climate is capable of producing great surprises at pretty much any time of year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 The winds in east King County are far different than what you get there. The worst windstorms I've had here have been on clear days. In those cases it usually blows for 30 to 48 hours straight. Tonight it's a bit breezy but nothing to write home about here.I wasn't comparing my area to there at all. There is no winds in Western Washington tonight that would casue brown outs, that is what I was talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Currently 46 degrees and rather blustery this morning.That is all. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Here is a webcam picture from Trout Lake yesterday. You can clearly see a lot of ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Today it has switched back to snow at Trout Lake. Obviously the upper levels are finally cooling some. Too bad there wasn't more snow for the mountains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 I wasn't comparing my area to there at all. There is no winds in Western Washington tonight that would casue brown outs, that is what I was talking about. Oh well the 2 brownouts are probably just due to some branches that hit the powerlines in the right spot. Who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Oh well the 2 brownouts are probably just due to some branches that hit the powerlines in the right spot. Who knows What is a brown out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 What is a brown out?When your power dims and flickers but doesn't go out completely! Not nessasarily something you do in your pants when you see a Jan 1950 setup showing up in the models. But Could happen. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 When your power dims and flickers but doesn't go out completely! Not nessasarily something you do in your pants when you see a Jan 1950 setup showing up in the models. But Could happen.Thanks. Never heard anyone around here call that a brownout. We just say the lights or power flickered. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks. Never heard anyone around here call that a brownout. We just say the lights or power flickered.I think it might be an east coast term? Yeah I just call it surges or flickering. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 First westerly flow in a while kicked in around 6 AM. Temp went from 42 up to 48 rather quickly. Its going to switch at Crown Point soon too, for the first time in over a week. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Today it has switched back to snow at Trout Lake. Obviously the upper levels are finally cooling some. Too bad there wasn't more snow for the mountains. Beautiful Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 This would be really good news for us. Once again the GFS and ECMWF handle the MJO in entirely different ways. Lately the ECMWF has bee the superior model by far in that regard. If the GFS is wrong on the MJO it can't be right about the mid latitude pattern progression. On another note an MJO progression such as this is more typical of a La Nina than a Nino. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Looking at the MJO the GFS indicates the wave will be in octant 3 in about 3 weeks and the ECMF shows octant 4 in about 2 weeks. During the winter most of our really good events come with the MJO somewhere in the 3 to 7 range.I'm not seeing that..VP200 anomalies are a better tool to use than those phase diagrams..you're just seeing a boatload of high frequency CCKW contamination Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 This would be really good news for us. Once again the GFS and ECMWF handle the MJO in entirely different ways. Lately the ECMWF has bee the superior model by far in that regard. If the GFS is wrong on the MJO it can't be right about the mid latitude pattern progression. On another note an MJO progression such as this is more typical of a La Nina than a Nino. Luckily the bias corrected version looks like what should happen and makes better sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 The south wind finally broke through at Crown Point.39 at 10:17, 46 at 10:27It won't last long as the GFS shows east wind returning overnight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks. Never heard anyone around here call that a brownout. We just say the lights or power flickered. Thanks Mossman! Yeah a brownout is when the lights/power flickers and dims and stuff but doesn't go completely out. I don't hear a lot of people call them brownouts out here so it may be an east coast term. It sounds normal to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm not seeing that..VP200 anomalies are a better tool to use than those phase diagrams..you're just seeing a boatload of high frequency CCKW contamination Be that as it may the phase diagrams have been a very good tool for forecasting cold events here in the recent past. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Luckily the bias corrected version looks like what should happen and makes better sense Could you post what that is looking like? At this point I have no real reason to doubt the forecast I posted as it has been pretty accurate lately. And what do you mean by luckily? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks Mossman! Yeah a brownout is when the lights/power flickers and dims and stuff but doesn't go completely out. I don't hear a lot of people call them brownouts out here so it may be an east coast term. It sounds normal to me. I have heard that sometimes on the east coast the power grid gets so loaded down that the voltage being delivered is below the normal 110 to 120V. As a result things run slower and bulbs burn dimmer than they normally do. That's another definition of a brown out. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Be that as it may the phase diagrams have been a very good tool for forecasting cold events here in the recent past.Maybe, but there are no indications of anything significant out your way until January, in my opinion. We're likely going to enter a +PNA/-EPO/-NAM regime before the retrograde Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Maybe, but there are no indications of anything significant out your way until January, in my opinion. We're likely going to enter a +PNA/-EPO/-NAM regime before the retrograde You may well be right, but the last week of December could deliver. At this point the GFS likes the idea of a ridge centered over the center of the country followed by a retrogression to a Western ridge later in week two. One more retrogression step would be show time for us. Going to be fun to see how it unfolds. So far your call for a big nationwide torch this month has / will be proven quite correct, save the cold in some areas the first few days of the month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 A lot more spread starting to show up on the 12z GFS ensemble. At the end 850s range from -8 to +13 for Seattle. There are a fair number that show a minor cold shot centered around the 18th or so. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'll take a repeat of the Jan 1888 double arctic blast:Jan 2Astoria 39/36 .18Portland 42/32 .27Eola 36/32 .51Newport 41/34 .23The Dalles 34/32 .39Jan 3Astoria 36/30 .04Portland 36/30 .13Eola 34/26Newport 42/30 .06The Dalles 36/25 .20Jan 4Astoria 35/30Portland 38/26Eola 30/25Newport 36/26 .14The Dalles 37/22 .06 Jan 5Astoria 33/26Portland 28/20Eola 26/18Newport 32/21The Dalles 23/10Jan 6Astoria 30/20Portland 25/17Eola 25/15Newport 31/18The Dalles 13/-3Jan 7Astoria 29/21Portland 24/12Eola 21/11Newport 32/18The Dalles 9/-6Jan 8Astoria 30/21Portland 21/10Eola 22/11Newport 32/19The Dalles 6/-10 Jan 9Astoria 34/22Portland 21/10Eola 21/10Newport 37/20The Dalles 9/-6Jan 10Astoria 35/28Portland 28/12Eola 28/18Newport 42/26The Dalles 18/3Jan 11Astoria 43/33 .40Portland 42/7Eola 41/35 .36Newport 46/31 .14The Dalles 37/7Jan 12Astoria 41/30 .24Portland 44/28 .22Eola 39/27 .38 (2.5" snow)Newport 46/29 .15The Dalles 44/28 .08 Jan 13Olympia 22/11Astoria 30/14Portland 36/11Eola 14/5 (difference in obs time?)Newport 34/13 .06The Dalles 15/-4Jan 14Olympia 21/1Astoria 22/13Portland 15/4Eola 13/-5Newport 25/7The Dalles 4/-10Jan 15Olympia 20/-2Astoria 19/10Portland 9/-2Eola 13/0Newport 20/1The Dalles 2/-14Jan 16Olympia 18/3Astoria 16/10Portland 10/0 .13 (2.5" snow)Eola 14/-1 .51 (2.8" snow)Newport 30/5The Dalles -1/-14 .04Jan 17Astoria 44/16 .96Portland 22/6 .48 (6" snow)Eola 40/27Newport 44/27 .31The Dalles 12/-4 .24Jan 18Astoria 41/33 .22Portland 28/8Eola 39/16Newport 44/30The Dalles 10/-10Jan 19Astoria 36/32Portland 33/14Eola 32/28Newport 43/33The Dalles 25/2Jan 20Astoria 38/29 .28Portland 30/20 .06 (1.5" snow)Eola 27/25 .64 (3.5" snow)Newport 39/29 .15The Dalles 26/16 .13Jan 21Astoria 44/28 1.04Portland 32/19 .39 (no snow)Eola 42/26 .47Portland 47/30 ,44The Dalles 26/13 .06Jan 22Astoria 42/34 .16Portland 35/19 .22 (no snow)Eola 44/43 .71Newport 50/41 .44The Dalles 30/13Jan 23Astoria 50/40 1.20Portland 49/20 .47 (no snow)Eola 48/42 .48Newport 52/44 .51The Dalles 28/16 .11 (16.0" snow for the month) Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Pressure gradients look perfect for max radiation cooling in the Seattle area tonight if the muck is able to clear out. The WRF suggests mostly clear for part of the night and then high thin clouds later on. Amazingly I have yet to score a freezing low temp with the typical clear night / light wind situation this season. All of the freezing low temps have bee associated with cold / dry air continental air masses. Pretty rare. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's hard to believe fog won't form though. Especially with the relatively cool ground now, and warm air overriding it.Pressure gradients look perfect for max radiation cooling in the Seattle area tonight if the muck is able to clear out. The WRF suggests mostly clear for part of the night and then high thin clouds later on. Amazingly I have yet to score a freezing low temp with the typical clear night / light wind situation this season. All of the freezing low temps have bee associated with cold / dry air continental air masses. Pretty rare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'll take a repeat of the Jan 1888 double arctic blast: That was a nice event for sure, although the Puget Sound region has had better. The records I have for the Central Puget Sound shows a 17/2 day with 6 inches of snow, and a low of -2 the day before that. That is certainly top tier stuff. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's hard to believe fog won't form though. Especially with the relatively cool ground now, and warm air overriding it. Yeah...in this area fog is quite likely with the modest straight easterly gradient being shown. Pulling off a freeze probably won't be easy. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted December 6, 2014 Report Share Posted December 6, 2014 Could you post what that is looking like? At this point I have no real reason to doubt the forecast I posted as it has been pretty accurate lately. And what do you mean by luckily? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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